True, but even a hallucinated explanation of where things went wrong added to the context can force the model down a better path over the next few inputs.
2,173 karma · joined February 10, 2015
Short term the US needs the energy we sell as they don’t have sources to replace it with. Long term the pieces are already moving into place for more O&G exports via the pacific and selling electricity to ourselves with stronger grid connections.
Our reliance on US trade will diminish slowly, then all at once.
The single lever he points out is itself a ton of local, regional, and federal regulations and laws that all need modernizing or abolishing, which is far from a simple, single lever at all.
The gist of the conversation was about TV execs giving all sorts of bonkers notes all the time that are usually terrible. This writer tried to think about what might have triggered the exec to make a note. Maybe the characters are not engrossing enough, or the plot is too complex, or the dialogue isn't snappy enough. If the exec had been engrossed in the story they wouldn't have made a note. This writer rarely implemented any note from an exec, but did make all sorts of changes in and around noted sections.
Just like transportation induced demand, the solution is different style of infrastructure. High capacity metros, bus lanes, and regional rail to get people out of cars and use limited transportation corridors more efficiently than single occupancy vehicles. One more lane bro doesn’t work, but adding new forms of more efficient transportation does.
New, denser housing with mid rise and high rise buildings and a mixture of unit sizes in walkable neighbourhoods with good transit access absorbs new residents and drives down housing costs for everyone. Single family sprawl doesn’t work, but density can.
We have under-built for decades, so it’s easy to misunderstand the signals. More housing gets built and prices still go up, and many people are concluding more housing just increases prices, leading to people with good intentions decrying “luxury housing”. There are plenty of nimby actors in the mix too, tossing in all sorts of misinformation and bad faith arguments, muddying the water.
The reality is areas with strong economic growth are all failing to add enough new housing and demand continues to outstrip supply, leading to higher prices. Many studies have shown even new high end housing helps manage prices, as someone rich enough upgrades, leaving their unit empty for someone else to upgrade into. That chain continues all the way down into the lower cost units, each time freeing up space someone else can afford. Large migration into a region can mess with how much prices can be affected, but studies still show even high priced new units do slow down growth in prices. Supply and demand does apply, we have just massively underestimated how far behind supply is for the demand and need to add so much more housing.
0.1%ers borrowing against stocks and others assets and paying little more than minimum interest is a system-breaking loophole that has exploded the wealth gap. It needs to stop. Taxing unrealized gains isn't the fix. Leveraging an asset needs to be a realized gain.
People should be paying capital gains on the delta between book value vs the asset valuation at loan time. They are gaining from the asset appreciation to have access to more leverage and that gain should be taxable. This would re-set the book value so people don't pay capital gains multiple times on the same gain, but they shouldn't be able to defer the gain forever while using debt to avoid tax.
There should probably be a lifetime exemption of around $1 million to allow the middle class to leverage their home and other key assets in a way the richest have benefitted from for so long, but once you use up your exemption no more tax-free leverage.
Maybe in 1942. Modern tanks cannot be built on highly specialized production lines that build road vehicles without years-long re-tooling. M1 Abrams tanks don't even use piston engines, they have turbines.
A older, but well documented example how specialized modern automotive production has become is the Mercedes Benz 500e. In the 90s Mercedes wanted to build a more powerful, wider version of the E class. They added 56 mm to the front fenders and discovered it wouldn't fit through the production line properly. MB contracted for Porsche to handle the low-volume 500e on a different production line.
80% of 15A x 120V = 1.4 kW
80% of 20A x 240V = 3.8 kW
Just going from a standard 15A outlet to a 20A/240V nearly triples the amount of power, and many homes that would need a new panel for a 50A charger have room for one more 20A circuit. Cars typically spend 8-16 hrs per day stationary in their own driveway, so 3.8 kW translates into tons of range.
While 40A or 50A is nice to have, it's far from necessary.
40K is also on the low end for geothermal. I'm guessing you were able to trench instead of drill?
If you can afford ground source it's by far the best option in cold climates. Steady ground heat means you get the same efficiency all year round. The install can be eye-watering though.
I don't love sports betting in general, but I really hate betting on short term events like specific pitches or a strikeout. There is way too much incentive to fix.
We've come a long way from the black sox and Pete Rose being banned for life over gambling
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sox_Scandal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Rose#Permanent_ineligibil...
Awful calls need to be struck from the game and this should do that. Tonight my Blue Jays had a double taken away on a foul call and a ball 2 inches off the plate called a strike in the same at bat with the bases loaded. Between this and the horrible reviews last week it feels like the fix is by MLB to keep us from winning the division.
Unlike tennis where in and out have always been strictly defined and we just didn't have the technology to enforce it, baseball has always involved the human element to the strike zone and some umpire judgement on whether the pitcher hit the spot or just got lucky and what a given batter's zone is. I want some of that to stay, with catchers holding game-long discussions about the zone with umpires, and batters having their own sense of the zone.
I don't want full automatic balls and strikes, so I like the challenge. There is some new strategy on when to deploy it and who can be trusted to recognize a missed call. It leaves some room for a pitcher and catcher to work a corner over a few innings to expand little by little.
There is extensive long term refurbishment of the existing reactors that includes uprated capacity, but there isn't currently any plans to add new reactors at Bruce.
A different Ontario nuclear site (Darlington) does have work underway to build four BWRX-300 reactors, one of which will be the first in the world.
At the time 2 stair requirements were adopted it was vital, with devastating urban fires a common occurrence. We have so many new options for both preventing fire and keeping evacuation routes accessible for hours that it's no longer required.
The regulation has a huge impact on the layout and form it's possible to build, and I think it's a huge driver of the visceral reaction against apartment living in the US and Canada.
Being able to build 4-8 storey apartments on a single lot with a central stair where every unit has windows on at least 2 walls would be a game-changer for north american urban spaces and a pathway out of the housing crisis.
The best alternative is a well-planned phased line with carefully protected right-of-way and a dedicated source of long term funding. Bonus points for it being a combination of value capture taxes and the transit agency being a property developer in their own right around stations. The early phase can be inside the boundary of current development so there are people to ride right away. Developers can build and market using the upcoming line, and prospective residents can be confident it will happen with funding secured.
I do think Overground is a great case study in the value of both branding and service. Quite a bit of the Overground was already operational passenger rail, but it was fragmented under different operators, names, and service patterns. TfL wisely brought it under a single brand, making it simple to understand, especially as part of the larger London transportation network.
TfL also arranged consistent service, newer rolling stock, and full electrification and made the service pretty reliable. Turns out if you offer good frequency people will make use of it. Wild.
Here in Ontario we've been watching Metrolinx try and fail miserably to build out an RER/S-Bahn system out of the GO network. We're 8 years into the GO Expansion plan and Metrolinx has yet to raise a single catenary pole. It's beyond shameful. We're getting tons of shiny stations with huge capacity, but no real service has emerged (or shows any sign of emerging) to get value from all the dollars spent.
Metrolinx has been unwilling to make the leap to metro operations with line isolation and high floor platforms. They are also unwilling to move to electric multiple units to realize acceleration gains. They are trying to cling to scheduled service and commuter-oriented patterns, just because that's how it's always been done.
Here in Ontario the province passed a law directing themselves to remove separated bike lanes from Bloor Street, University Avenue, and Avenue Road in Toronto, claiming it would reduce traffic congestion. They are three important surface arteries in and around the downtown core.
A group of cyclists sued the government under the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, with the verdict being handed down this week. The cyclists won, though it's far from the end of the story since the government can appeal or invoke the notwithstanding clause.
One of the lone voices who filed court statements in support of the government was a retired Toronto fire captain, who stated without evidence that bike lanes increase both congestion and emergency response times. The judge was not convinced, in part from lack of supporting data, but also because the sitting fire chief said in a public meeting the fire department had not recorded an increase in response times.
Collisions involving cyclists have gone down around 50% on those roads since the lanes went in, despite cycling volume nearly doubling. A retired firefighter still felt compelled to testify it would harm emergency response. Wow.
Those huge trucks are also all custom built chassis and incredibly expensive.
European fire departments using customized versions of off the shelf commercial vehicles are so much more sensible for urban spaces and don't need to drive transportation decisions.
Trains are a bigger upfront investment, but are cheaper in the long run, especially once capacity is factored in. You need a lot of busses to equal moderate sized trains.
Busses have their place, but not as the backbone for rapid transit in even moderate sized urban areas.
BRT trades CAPX for OPEX. In Latin America where BRT is hugely successful capital is expensive and labour is cheap, so hiring a ton of drivers is easy. In high labour costs markets like the US, Canada, and Europe BRT falls apart. It's often all transit agencies think they can get funding and support for so it's pushed, but it's way too easy to cut back BRT attributes like signal priority, dedicated lanes, and all door boarding to end up with just a bus with a fancy livery.
Nothing feels slower than standing still. Sitting in congested traffic sucks, and so does loitering on a train platform or a bus stop.
When the vehicle arrives so quickly you don't even consider the timetable or care if you just miss a train transit is an easy choice.
DC Metro just recently re-enabled full automatic train operation across all the lines in June.
My ideal default rapid transit buildout for midsized urban areas would basically be SkyTrain with value engineering to extend the platforms to 100 or 120m with minimal cost in the future.
Melbourne is eliminating grade crossings with new guideways and creating linear park space underneath as they go.
SkyTrain works because of a virtuous cycle of attributes: Full grade separation enables automation. Automation enables many trains per hour. Many trains per hour with short trains still has tons of capacity. Short trains means lower costs for stations, which as the article notes is a huge portion of rapid transit costs. Lower cost means building more transit for the same budget, so more transit gets built. More transit with great headways results in transit being the mode of choice. Take any one of these elements out and you can still have a functioning transit system, but the magic is missing.
Link light rail is so close to full grade separation but not quite there, so headways are limited by the grade crossing. With longer headways, bigger trains are needed to serve the same capacity. Bigger trains mean big stations and beefier, more expensive viaducts. Big stations are expensive.
Link is gaining ridership and offering great service, but it's hard not to think if they had learned the full lessons from nearby Vancouver it would be even better (and cheaper).
Porsche has a 2.1 MWhr battery trailer that can deliver 3.2 MW peak they bring to electric track days to keep all the cars charged. That's enough power for some serious industrial processes, and if more is required horizontal scale is pretty simple.
A quick trip overnight to a high powered car charger could fill the batteries by morning. For many loads a simple grid connection constantly trickle charging would be enough power to operate indefinitely.
In cars that have unified heat management the refrigerant cycle is handled as a separate element, with a manifold controlling individual coolant loops to each component. I'm picturing something similar for the home, with a coolant moving heat to and from each appliance using standardized communication to the manifold. There would probably need to be heat buffer tanks, but air to water heat pump systems for radiant heat already need this anyway.