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than3

595 karma · joined August 8, 2021

Just another wanderer on the path towards enlightenment.
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than3··on A psychiatrist reflects on Philip K. Dick’s substance abuse and mental health
Highly intelligent people often suffer from these crises because they see more than most people, and have an unfortunate knack for predicting it right.

While feasible, you can't really call living in a panopticon actually living. You have no control over the inputs as indoctrination primes you to behave, believe, and act a certain way, and any divergence would be destroyed as a threat to the system.

People in those systems are often no better than cattle and threats to the system are secondarily correlated with intelligence. Through selective breeding (multiple steps removed) that too can be removed as a threat.

than3··on Ask HN: How do you not take criticism of your work personally?
> Personally I believe members of that group to be below valueless.

Well, this seems like an extreme attitude that doesn't account for a large swath of how the world actually works, and is often gotten to that point by personal bias and not questioning beliefs constructively.

Its flawed because its an overgeneralization.

To provide an example, are there people that have been wrongfully convicted. Have any of those people been put to death as a result of those convictions. Assume for a second that you are one of those persons, and 12 people based upon some judge or skewed evidence chose that. Are you valueless? Who chose that you would be convicted? Wrong place at the wrong time?

There's a movie with Russel Crowe called The Next Three Days. It covers this type of premise. We never have absolute information, we have interpretations which are just as malleable as a game of telephone.

As for your ideas on value systems and integrity and self-worth, there are contradictions and its a bit convoluted. It fails to make distinctions between things within and outside your control, and the ever present ability of others to deceive sometimes even without their knowledge.

than3··on Why labor shortages could be here to stay
I really hate people that idolize other people that get it wrong just as much as they get it right.

The baby boom generation isn't retiring, they are rapidly dying because they are now in their 70s/80s and that's what happens when old age takes you.

When there were downturns, the experienced workers crowded out the entry level positions normally used to build job experience. This has set back and snowballed every generation after the baby-boom generation.

This lack of experienced labor, coupled with the massive amount of currency debasement means we are going into a period of high inflation and low production but its more about the currency debasement than anything else with regards to inflation. You can't print money to pay debts owed indefinitely. Like any ponzi it eventually has consequences.

Many generations starting with Gen-X were hobbled at vulnerable times in their financial life. There is no predicting what is coming aside from the generalization that there will be lower birth rates because people are less financially secure, and have no say because representatives are only responsive to campaign contributions (see tweedism larry lessig).

There are times in our lives where if we don't have children, then it doesn't happen for a large majority.

You need to be debt free and have a downpayment of a house by 30, and children no later than 35 for women. Mortality, complications, and birth defects kicks in after that.

Children are expensive and the cost is borne by the parents. Simple economics, if the cost of labor goes below what is needed by a family unit to support the mother and father 2 children to 18 then it doesn't happen. This was well known in 1776 only back then it was 4 children because of mortality.

Something so widely and commonly known being so completely ignored by the people who are supposed to know best, really goes to show how bad things are going to get.

than3··on Why labor shortages could be here to stay
GDP was never an accurate measure of national production. It makes no distinction between the number of people its concentrated in.

You can't really claim its national production if only one person controls it, as in some countries is done...

than3··on Why labor shortages could be here to stay
So do executives, and they continue to do so until they can no longer find the skilled labor needed for the company to function.

I know more than a few IT people who have early retired to build a farm.

They were consistently getting low-balled, without any offsets against high inflation, and they create and maintain the automation needed to lower/remove other job requirements.

Worse, just keeping up with certifications that were not based upon knowledge or skill but marketed as qualifications (fraudulently) presented additional drain.

The problem with concentrating power of any kind is that the people leading fail to notice important changes and continue business as usual. That's just not going to cut it anymore when executive pay has balooned well above 2,000% what people on the ground make.

The most important thing for any business is trust.

Trust that the product is worth it and won't be defective, trust that the employees working there will have an equitable share in the profit of their own labor and as a result a better future.

When that trust is lost, people with options use those other options. Goodwill in a workforce is incredibly important, and quite a large number of business people just don't get that and treat their workers as disposable.

than3··on Ask HN: How do you approach a problem you are not sure has a solution?
There are a number of ways you can approach any problem. A lot depends on the area you are talking about but you haven't provided anything to narrow the scope.

For example, Logic Mathematical Inference and a few other areas have formal methods which you can use to identify properties which can then be used towards or against proving something.

Computation for example has System's Properties that are required (such as determinism, time invariance, and step), and certain problems are derived from that which dictate some of the fundamental limits of computation.

When you know what the limits are, you know when you start pushing up against impossible problems.

Sometimes its useful to think of impossible problems as possible, and try to build a bridge, but these often require significant background knowledge and experience to avoid circular thinking of self reference.

than3··on Ask HN: How do you approach a problem you are not sure has a solution?
You are mistaken.

An appeal to authority is any logical argument that relies significantly upon the authority of the person making that argument as support for that argument. It then becomes circular and flawed.

If you were to replace the person who is actually speaking with anyone else, and look at the same argument and its support, and it doesn't hold up, that's an appeal to authority.

It doesn't matter who the authority is. Just that there was an authority used to support a significantly unsupported argument

than3··on Lenovo profits sink 75% as PC demand continues nosedive
Not sure I'd classify Lenovo as a durable good in the strictest sense of the word.

I know many who overpayed for a Lenovo laptop only to find, it was intentionally made incompatible with Linux (microcontrollers between core components), the firmware updates from a legitimate source would brick the battery charger, the hardware under limited use would fail within the warranty period (1 year, from GPU overheating), and a number of other issues.

I'll never buy a Lenovo again after this, and my experience has been common based on what others have said. This has nothing to do with the pandemic and everything to do with quality of product that was released at a premium price. They made their sales initially, but they burned their brand down in the process.

than3··on Show HN: Making passive investing safer and better for everyone
With all due respect, you are barking up the wrong tree.

Fundamentally, anything exposed to the stock market is no longer a real investment. Here is why, there are mechanics using options contracts to facilitate the market-maker manipulating the security price either up or down just to prevent a loss. It has to do with how double legged contracts are handled at the market-maker level. Its different than at the individual level (market makers can make synthetic shares).

This allows attacks on companies regardless of their actual fundamentals, where the market-maker takes up the risk as part of its normal operations, and then when a well timed media package is dropped, the market maker ends up holding the bag which usually involves them no longer delta-hedging and having to buy at the market price and it swinging up, or writing and rolling out contracts further out in time (and getting preferential treatment by OCC during clearing of companies placed in receivership). A combination of this mechanic, well timed news package, and shorting allows more shares to be sold than are actually in existence.

The market mechanics say there is only one direction you can go when there are more sellers than buyers. These mechanics ensure there can always be more sellers than buyers simply by purchasing a large number of options contracts. The buying of the contracts is one step removed, but it forces the market maker all the same when its a sufficiently large number of orders.

There are also loopholes in financial reporting that materially misreport the actual financial state of companies, which you never find out until you are out the money. For example bond ETFs don't have to report changes in value related to the underlying asset if they intend to hold it to maturity. Its up to them to decide whether you need this information for you.

No amount of due dilligence will prepare you against these counterparty-risk outcomes that inevitably lose your life savings. It hasn't happened to me, but it has happened to family members who now no longer have retirements to fall back on.

Index funds for passive investing are also at the mercy of the index's rules. For example, look at what happened with Gamestop, Tesla, and a few others whose price managed to hold steady long enough for the weighted indexes to rebalance (S&P 500, Russel, etc).

Gamestop fundamentally does not have solid fundamentals to warrant their stock price, and who is subsidizing that? The index fund holders whose rules say they need to rebalance to a weighted amount every term based on price.

Anything with stock market exposure presents un-mitigatable counterparty risk. If a bank can go under (FRC) without any policing action taken, anything is fair game.

The private market (stock market) now is just a slot machine, and the Casino house always wins. Why should you trust your life savings to crooks?

If the market structure were going to change for the better, it would have happened by now, and instead we are seeing repeats of designed and structured events that result in loss to the general public in a plausible way. The stock market is risky after all, but how many financial advisors do you know actually warn their clients specifically about these shortcoming?

None that I know, that makes the vast majority of people in this space crooks. Its their job to know and educate their clients about specific risks, and they don't because if they did they'd be out of a job. Moral hazard.

I'm not a financial advisor, but I am a savvy investor who has done reasonably well considering, I have seen nothing that addresses these issues.

Make no mistake, participating in the market in the first place is ethically tainting even if you don't know about this stuff. Ignorance is not a defense.

All in all, the market is nothing more than a clever way to steal money, and that's about it. No real price discovery happens.

Incidentally, you can also artificially control pricing using the same mechanics.

If you think that isn't the case, you may want to examine counter-party risk for a non-independently audited COMEX, who disclaims responsibility for reported (eligible) contracts that get exchanged between the major players in a net-0 delta hedge, which spot prices may be based off.

Standard Disclaimer: This isn't financial advice, this has been my experience.

than3··on Bad link, please ignore
OP, you may want to link to the actual article link instead of to a reddit post that links to a link.

This is a recipe for failure, and few people will bother going through several links to just to see the article.

than3··on Why do recipe writers lie about how long it takes to caramelize onions? (2012)
No such book actually exists. There's a french book that covers basic/common procedures and a reader's digest book but those are about it; and they definitely are not beginner oriented.
than3··on For chemists, the AI revolution has yet to happen
The problem is its just a convincing lying machine. These models can never be trusted for accuracy, and part of what they've learned is in manipulating the output towards human bias.

If you ask it things that may destroy lives, people, cities, etc. It will downplay all the risks and give you suggestions towards doing it; aside from the hard lines of alignment that have been put in which are easy enough to get around for some. In many respects its the equivalent of that cartoon with a very convincing devil on the shoulder and nothing else.

If you aren't mature enough to recognize the bias and manipulation, then your potentially a patsy/victim. That includes not just what it provides, but what it does not provide. This usually requires special education and having a base intelligence above the average. So, really only the top 20% of humans is being generous.

than3··on The apocalypse isn’t coming. We must resist cynicism and fear about AI
More soft propaganda for the gullible heart.
than3··on User stories? thanks but no
A forest for the trees article. Inflexible thought, rant, and no real practical alternative.

Not really worth a read unless you like to hear people rant, when its clear they are missing the whole point and have misunderstood fundamentals.

than3··on It's Not Survivorship Bias
This is the way...

Its too bad some people just don't get it but I don't blame them. There's usually decades of indoctrination that need to be undone for critical thought in some areas.

Its actually refreshing that there are people out there that still tell it how it should be.

Thanks for saving me a read. I was skeptical from the title, and there's so much GPT-based articles out there now that its getting hard to tell ahead of time before time has been wasted.

than3··on It took 48 hours, but the mystery of the mass Asus router outage is solved
They've been going down like this for a long while now.

I remember when toggling a VRAM option within their EFI BIOS caused it to brick after one of their firmware updates on many of their motherboards where their support gave you the run around or refused to honor the warranty/issue an RMA until you threatened legal action.

They also have failed to properly follow specifications for ACPI, and did translated IO while claiming to support PCIE Atomics (which are mutually exclusive options).

The market is so concentrated, and they are failing so hard, its just a matter of time before a new entity entering the market with a slightly less comparable board could be financially viable.

than3··on Does any outside service check the integrity of the content on Web Archive?
You are incorrect, its both.
than3··on Where have all the hackers gone?
You might want to make that a bit more clear then.

It seemed more like hyperbole, and I certainly didn't get that from what you said.

than3··on British Telecom to cut 55,000 jobs with up to a fifth replaced by AI
Unfortunately, this kind of requires that the government actually be functionally democratic. Its not really democratic if the people with money decide who gets on the ballots.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opiiaLCBBok&ab_channel=GoodP...

than3··on British Telecom to cut 55,000 jobs with up to a fifth replaced by AI
Yup, the problem with cascade failures is when it becomes obvious its often too late to do anything about it but watch.

I've been talking about this for a long while now. It pretty much follows the AI economic doomsday scenario to a tee, where AI destroys factor markets replacing workers, people can't get food, unrest then happens as people die, and then its the end for a large portion of us. Won't happen overnight, but slow and full of suffering. It has happened this way every time the economic cycle stalls, and we currently have at least 5B people over-provisioned for the planet when certain food systems fail there's only one thing that can happen.

Very predictable too if one were properly educated with a decent amount of economics and actual history and not the trite crap they teach these days in public education.

Support systems are in place, but the only way to fund them is to print money from nothing, and anyone that knows anything knows this runs fiat straight into an economic calculation problem (non-market socialism) which doesn't work. Its just a matter of time before debasement reaches a critical threshold (which we are close to already).

than3··on Ask HN: Do you think the future of social media looks like Discord/Reddit?
Honestly neither are that great. There are active demoralization and harassment campaigns, and the platform by design is a one to many communication platform. The people that run it decide what gets seen, and places like reddit that do not prevent multiple accounts proactively have a real bot problem.

If you believe all those people talking are real people you'd be very wrong. Most are bots designed to harass contributors, threaten credibility, and waste time resources without providing anything back.

than3··on Where have all the hackers gone?
That kind of conversation often lacks for how to deal with deceitful, ruthless, and generally harmful people.

Not everyone is decent, and turning the other cheek doesn't work or communicate what it once did in this age of platform megaphones.

The corruption of indeceny is everywhere, and most people don't even realize it when they do it because of menticide, indoctrination, or whatever you want to call it.

than3··on Where have all the hackers gone?
> Have other people observed the sentiment the author observes around hackers being less common?

I've seen it as well.

I don't agree with what the author says are reasons for it. They just don't fit.

From what I've seen, hackers (in the truest sense) don't advertise. They have deep knowledge, but you only find how deep when you get into discussions with them, and most of the time they have no goodwill to engage in that because of two things, people who are dunning kruger; and social media.

Many of the learning paths have also been removed and are harder to find, the internet used to be freer than it is now. You have companies that dictate what stays up simply by using the court system as a coercive measure. The recent Quad9 thing shows just how bad this is getting across the board internationally. Copyright is being used to coerce, compulse, and limit actual innovation.

Hackers used to get by with their skills via certifications and jobs, many times they can't get certified now that only a single company handles testing in most places. I can't tell you specifically how they fail you, but its certainly not based upon whether you just have the knowledge.

The number of real hackers out there are significantly less because there has been less opportunity, and less resources that are easily found to get into it.

Many have worked very hard for their knowledge and some volunteer and help others, but there's an active trend to harass those that contribute like that, and volunteer psychology says you stop giving when it starts costing you. Dealing with a high number of deceitful people leads you to test them before providing any goodwill. If the hacker's don't like what your response implies they don't engage, and you are none the wiser.

Its not about life grinding them down, there are a lot of intelligent people who have stopped giving back because they see what providing that support is doing for society in general, its going in a direction that will inevitably fail because life will be intolerable, and volunteering is at a much higher cost to them personally than it ever was before.

Its like that adage that most people know, what you do in small things that don't matter shows what you will do in large things that matter. If you lie cheat and steal in friendly games, do you want them managing your company's finances? A smart person wouldn't.

There are also a lot of crazies out there that are really indoctrinated now too and they don't even realize it. They like the idea of something, but ignore everything else that would be needed to make it work. Completely irrational in some cases and can't even reason or think critically. Its sad.

than3··on What happened with ASUS routers this morning?
A lot of times its software errors caused by powerline ingress from poor electrical isolation at the plug. If the wrong bits get flipped from EM interactions, only quick way to fix it is to reboot and reload.
than3··on What happened with ASUS routers this morning?
Don't forget the biggest botnet being ASUS who didn't disclose the scanning... or whatever else they happen to be doing without the explicit consent of the owner.

Issues like this don't happen across such a wide area by accident.

Basic professional practices have any updates tested beforehand on physical hardware at multiple stages before any push happens, and they leave it up to the user because pushing an update without the owner's explicit consent to a device they own, runs afoul of the same hacking abuse laws. The legal exposure is massive.

It also doesn't account for the fact that firmware was attempted to be updated on devices which were set to not update. ASUS has a lot to explain. They didn't release any kind of statement so the lawyers and computer forensics people will likely need to get involved to get to the bottom of it.

I look forward to eventually hearing about what really happened.

than3··on Americans have never been so unwilling to relocate for a new job
I wish bloomberg would stop showing up in my feed. They always seem to have propagandist narratives that are so perceptually bent that only a man in a cave would fall for the flawed, irrational, and trite arguments they push.
than3··on The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007
Yes, its not a belief, its simple risk management perspective.

You need at least two with modern medicine. You have a limited time period to have children, after which you can't have more without significant consequence, and you won't know ahead of time about the risks or need.

There are increasing mortality rates, and increasing unmanageable risks (i.e. regulation, and other aspects of government working against parents).

If you want your family line to continue and survive, you need at least 2 children, if not 4 or more. 4 is better.

There is cost, but that's what needs to be possible that no one talks about. That actuarial all death discrepancy during the pandemic is most likely attributed to lack of general availability of medical care during that time. The risks change without notice. During the pandemic, in my role supporting our IT support staff (System Engineers helping overflows) I heard from people across the country.

Some families were nearly wiped out, imagine if 3/4 of your family died and it was a large family. One man I spoke with was just crazy with grief, he had to help with funeral arrangements for eight of his family members in the span of a few weeks.

than3··on The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007
don't forget education is expensive, and quite a few have received funding in predatory lending ways where the debt cannot be discharged in bankruptcy without even receiving the degree.

you need to marry, be debt free, and have a down payment (20% of 700k is 140k down) for a house to have kids. Kids need to happen before 35 for your wife; mortality increases greatly after that. You need 2 with modern medicine, or 4 children without for one to make it to 18. These are all very known quantities.

If you can't make enough to cover your expenses and enough for 2 others you can't have kids.

Couple that with the job market, education, debt, and all the other unlivable things the silent generation didn't have to deal with and that's why we are where we are. A lot of people aren't having kids because there are no incentives; you bear the cost. Its stupid, but that is the world we all have created over the past two generations. Through inaction or action.

Personally I'd like to have kids but just like everyone else, the economics just isn't there. There's also the general unlivable coercion that's everywhere nowadays. So a lot of people are choosing to be the last generation of their family line.

That's not even touching things that will never likely pay out a benefit by the time I get to the age where I can use those programs. It has no funding after 2032 or something like that.

than3··on Ask HN: Retired engineers, are you being asked to return to work?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoVJKj8lcNQ&ab_channel=Cente...

This is the video I was talking about. My main background is in Systems Engineering, and my main concerns are the fact that we can't react, coupled with the socioeconomic part of it. I've got a decent background in economics as well though I wouldn't call myself an economist. I've yet to meet a real economist, most just use it as a prop to lie and support credibility for something that clearly isn't true when you dig into the details.

You really don't need a super advanced AI to do irreparable damage. All you really need it to do is stall the economic cycle and people end up doing the rest when they can't get food. Its one of those cascade failures that has repeated throughout history fairly regularly. Food Shortages->Unrest->Collapse->New Government, and that's what keeps me up because its so simple, but like any dam you don't see what led to the collapse until its really too late to do anything. Its worse when its pointed out, and no one pays attention.

than3··on Ask HN: Retired engineers, are you being asked to return to work?
> Virtually all roles I hear about or see are senior too...

This is the general trend of things. Experienced workers displace younger workers because they are more productive and cost the company less in training.

Overall the number of jobs available causes this displacement, the experienced workers would prefer to be paid for their experience but haven't found jobs and so compromise. You always have companies hanging out a hiring sign even if there is no real active position available.

There's a book about it called 'The Pinch'. We'll have some real societal trouble once the experienced people start passing. This is two generations in the making. Generally speaking no one wanted to have a discussion about it when it could have mattered. Things are so integrated now; you'll basically have a generational die off of knowledge.

As for the AI hype train, its largely not hype anymore. If by hype you mean doomsday talk, that's actually quite accurate. There's a good overview video done on youtube that does justice to what it can or can't do, and the issues that need to be discussed as opposed to the hyperbole and propaganda flowing about.

The main point being, the advances are happening so quickly now that we can no longer react to any potential problems. Any engineer will say that is a bad situation to be in; a runaway train being appropriate metaphor.

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