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tguedes

343 karma · joined October 10, 2018

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tguedes··on Stockfish 19
RTS requires other computer-type skills that are pretty useless. APM (micro and macro management), changing screen focus quickly, etc.

Chess is a great game for removing all those external factors. It's just thinking

tguedes··on Nvidia's Risky Business
The website from this article. It's not free. Ben Thompson releases 1 free article a week but the other 3 articles published each week requires a $15/month subscription. Ben Thompson is also very influential in Silicon Valley and the overall tech/media industry.
tguedes··on OpenAI and Hugging Face address security incident during model evaluation
I get your overall point, but that’s already a tactic used by attackers, especially in network infiltration. It shouldn’t be a surprise that an LLM would figure out to do the same thing
tguedes··on Apple reveals new AI architecture built around Google Gemini models
It's not the compute hardware itself. PCC used to be data centers owned and operated by Apple, running on chips designed by Apple.

With this announcement, Apple is expanding the definition of PCC to Google Cloud data centers. Theoretically, this is Google Cloud, not Google servers, so there should be a separation of access there.

From the Apple security blog:

> Originally built exclusively on Apple silicon with our world-class software security technologies, PCC set a new bar for AI privacy in the cloud, and continues to power the most demanding Apple Intelligence features. Since then, the wider industry has been working to provide a set of confidential inference primitives that could theoretically be combined to reach the security level of PCC. However, until today, those primitives have never been integrated into a comprehensive, end-to-end confidential inference pipeline capable of operating at global scale. That’s what we’ve done with PCC on Google Cloud, which incorporates PCC’s exceptional security and privacy properties at every stage, including the industry’s most comprehensive transparency guarantees that allow external security researchers to verify our privacy commitments.

tguedes··on Apple reveals new AI architecture built around Google Gemini models
I'm replying again because another commenter showed how to link to a comment

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48456081

tguedes··on Apple reveals new AI architecture built around Google Gemini models
Thank you!
tguedes··on Apple reveals new AI architecture built around Google Gemini models
Ah thank you for that, the MacRumors article was misleading to not even have mentioned this.
tguedes··on Apple reveals new AI architecture built around Google Gemini models
There is a comment in this thread from an alleged Apple employee that said that, but it doesn't seem like it's possible to send a link for a specific comment. Over the years I've seen comments and blogs posted here in Hacker News reaffirming the same thing.

But to answer your question directly, I don't have any links for those blogs or comments

tguedes··on Apple reveals new AI architecture built around Google Gemini models
From my understanding of the architecture, Apple and Google have basically developed a fork of Gemini that is built to run on Apple's PCC. There is no data being sent to any Google servers.

From this MacRumors article:

"The new architecture centers on Apple Foundation Models co-developed with Google, which Apple says are adapted to run both on-device and on servers through its existing Private Cloud Compute infrastructure."

And

"The company reiterated that Apple Intelligence relies on on-device processing and Private Cloud Compute, with a promise that user data is only used to execute the immediate request and is not accessible to Apple or third parties. Apple added that outside experts can verify those privacy guarantees "at any time.""

tguedes··on Apple reveals new AI architecture built around Google Gemini models
There has been anecdotal statements/blogs from Apple employees about the data privacy. They have said building some internal capabilities or user facing features are extremely difficult or impossible because they aren't able to access user data at the level required.
tguedes··on Alphabet announces $80B equity capital raise to expand AI infra and compute
They don't have the cash laying around. Their "actual" profit, meaning money added to their bank account after stock buy backs, dividends, employee stock allocations, and capex was $7B.

In this statement, their 2025 capex was $91.45B. They expect their 2026 capex to be $180B-190B. And they expect their "2027 capital expenditures to significantly increase compared to 2026."

So they simply don't have the money. Up until now, I thought the bubble talks about AI were silly because all these companies were using cash flow to fund their capex. These numbers are so astronomical now that a company that had $132B in net income has to take debt or issue stock to pay for it.

tguedes··on Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
You cherry-picked examples. Counter examples would be:

Crowdstrike up 1067% Cloudflare up 1408% Robinhood up 148%

For an index fund, I would take a break even or even a slight loss on AirBnb to get those Crowdstrike and Cloudflare returns. I do agree with the overall sentiment that the foundation AI companies are overvalued but the whole point of an index fund is not have to analyze each individual company.

tguedes··on Another Day Has Come
I'm not sure how they are related. USB-C was not really a technical challenge or had trade-offs. I'm not a hardware engineer but from what I've read, having an easily replaceable battery would degrade the water resistance of the phone.
tguedes··on John Ternus to become Apple CEO
I despise the Cook hate from some Apple fans. No he’s not the visionary that Jobs was. But I think he was the best person to scale Apple up to what it is today while still keeping the soul of the company alive.
tguedes··on OpenClaw isn't fooling me. I remember MS-DOS
To me it seems like an LLM-based implementation of automation software like Zapier. The problem with Zapier is you need services to provide APIs and Zapier needs to support those APIs to implement it in the automation workflow.

But because OpenClaw can just use a web browser like a normal user, you don't need all these APIs and there's no theoretical limitations on the services that can be integrated and automated.

Right now there's a lot of issues/bugs. People have more trust in a deterministic solution like Zapier. But maybe the LLMs and OpenClaw will get there eventually, and if it does, I can see how that's a better solution than a deterministic system.

tguedes··on We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
Do these platforms care since the insider traders aren’t taking money from the house?
tguedes··on Anthropic and Alignment (Ben Thompson)
You're absolutely right and the order of operations matters. But I'm not arguing about what's right in this case. If as Dario says, that advanced AI is at the level of nuclear weapons, then governments around the world will see it as a threat to their power and sovereignty.
tguedes··on Anthropic and Alignment (Ben Thompson)
Potentially. Or the US government can force over control of the technology. It's impossible to predict right now the implications of this technology in 5 years, let alone 10 years.
tguedes··on Anthropic and Alignment (Ben Thompson)
You're right in those cases. But if what Dario says is true, that advanced AI is on the scale of nuclear weapons, then that is a threat to the power and sovereignty of the government.
tguedes··on Anthropic and Alignment (Ben Thompson)
That's not what is happening, yet. If this technology is at the scale of nuclear weapons, you don't think the government is going to step in and take control of it?
tguedes··on Anthropic and Alignment (Ben Thompson)
I don't think he ever said in the article that he is not making the argument about the importance of democratic oversight, if anything, in the conclusion, he says:

"The way to address this new reality, however, is with new laws and through strengthening accountable oversight; cheering or even demanding that an unelected executive decide how and where such powerful capabilities can be used is the road an even more despotic future."

But I think you drastically misunderstood the point of this article. Ben is pointing out the implications of Amodei's analogy of advanced AI being like nuclear weapons. The government has a monopoly on nuclear weapons and has extreme regulations and oversight on the companies that help build nuclear weapons for it. And those companies do not tell the government how or when they can use the nukes.

So if advanced AI is like nuclear weapons, why can an unelected executive tell a democratically elected government how to use it?

tguedes··on Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal
But that's the problem with this. The vast majority of the spend is going to be on the Nvidia chips which have a shelf life of 3-5 years. They are not making any significant long term investments.

During the dot com bubble, telecom companies spent 10s of billions of dollars laying down cables and building out the modern public internet infrastructure that we are still using today. Even if a lot of companies failed, we still greatly benefited from some of the the investments they made.

For this bubble, the only long term investment benefits seems to be the electricity build out and a renewed interest and investment in nuclear.

Most (if not all) of Oracle's investments are mostly in chips and data centers.

tguedes··on Why don't people return their shopping carts?
I was going to comment this exact thing about stacking plates. I think most servers/ex-servers also do this regardless of age. It's even easier to do than returning a shopping cart.
tguedes··on Why don't people return their shopping carts?
The only downside of this in the US is that homeless people will tend to hang around Aldi's asking people if they can return their cart to get the coin. Most of them are friendly and thankful but every once in awhile an aggressive person would make me very uncomfortable.

I also expect Aldi management isn't thrilled about homeless people camping outside their stores.

tguedes··on The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership
Still, I think there needs to be a specific term for a company that has recently had a funding round and will likely IPO in the future, like Stripe. That's a different category than a start-up or privately owned company that will never IPO like Koch Inc.
tguedes··on The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership
It already has. Any tech company that is pre-IPO and still raising funding rounds is a "startup". I'm surprised there hasn't been someone to come up with a separate term for the stage of these kinds of companies.
tguedes··on YouTube Just Ate TV. It's Only Getting Started
Do you have recommendations? I've been struggling to find a good one since Outdoor Boys shut down.
tguedes··on Summary of the Amazon DynamoDB Service Disruption in US-East-1 Region
I think it makes sense in this instance. Because this occurred in us-east-1, the vast majority of affected customers are US based. For most people, it's easier to do the timezone conversion from PT than UTC.
tguedes··on MIT Study Finds AI Use Reprograms the Brain, Leading to Cognitive Decline
I think what you're trying to reference is APIs or libraries, most of which I wouldn't consider abstractions. I would hope most senior front-end developers are capable of developing a date library for their use case, but in almost all cases it's better to use the built in Date class, moment, etc. But that's not an abstraction.
tguedes··on Amazon has mostly sat out the AI talent war
Because if LLM inference is going to be a bigger priority for the majority of companies, they're going to go where they can get the best performance to cost ratio. AWS is falling behind on this. So companies (especially new ones) are going to start using GCP or Azure, and if they're already there for their LLM workloads, why not run the rest of the infrastructure there?

It's similar to how AWS became the de-facto cloud provider for newer companies. They struggled to convince existing Microsoft shops to migrate to AWS, instead most of the companies just migrated to Azure. If LLMs/AI become a major factor in new companies deciding which will be their default cloud provider, they're going to pick GCP or Azure.

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