62 karma · joined August 31, 2024
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messier_87#Supermassive_black_...
Fair enough, and yeah definitions are always going to be somewhat fuzzy. Still it seems safe to assume there are also a lot of novel things going on in games, embedded, finance, AI itself of course... Generally I can't help but feel that we have only dipped our toes into the vast ocean of program space, and I'm curious what else is out there.
It's a quite a bit broader than that: for instance most of science and engineering is heavily supported by simulations (very useful when the system you're considering doesn't have perfect spherical or cylindrical symmetry), and there is still tons of algorithm development going on. The world is vast, and thus so is the domain of programming.
And halfway through 2026, AI has become a very interesting and helpful partner in algo research too. If it does continue to pull away and zip off to ASI land, hopefully we can leverage the resulting magical technology and catch back up with it...
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.htm...
The analysis is easy: copy and paste the data from that link into a new text file, then write a python script that goes through it and counts the number of Cat 1, 2, 3, 4 & 5 hurricanes that make landfall per year (the "Highest Saffir-Simpson U.S. Category" column), and then make the plots: I used gnuplot. You can then do fits to the data if you'd like, but the flat trend lines over the last 175 years are obvious.
I encourage you to not trust me and to do it yourself, but I'm also happy to share my script, let me know.
As far as the hurricane trajectory trend lines go, they are clearly highly stochastic: check out e.g. both the spaghetti plot predictions for various storms from previous years, and ask google for a map of where they grow (grew...) oranges in Florida.
You have to diagnose a problem correctly in order to have a chance at solving it.
This is the conventional wisdom, and it is completely falsified by the actual data that I linked to. I wrote a python script to go process and plot it, and there has been zero increase in Cat 1, 2, 3, or 4 storms hitting the US since 1851 (there are only 4 Cat 5s listed total).
Try it for yourself.
That's not correct: we have good data going back to 1851:
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.htm...
Search for "FL": hurricanes have been hitting Florida frequently for the last 175 years.
In general I think it's fine to use Coulomb's law as an approximation in this case because the proton is much heavier than the electron and so we can just stay in the proton's reference frame and let the electron fall in from infinity (and we're ignoring QM and just doing relativistic EM here). We could also switch to a tritium nucleus and make it a bit better of an approximation, or indeed add a whole bunch more neutrons and get lucky that they don't beta decay to make it an arbitrarily good one. It is true that if the proton starts moving that you will no longer have a pure Coulomb field with respect to the original reference frame, as after a Lorentz boost the E field gets squished into the transverse direction somewhat, and you'll gain a B field swirling around the proton...
Staying with the frozen proton approx, if we plug numbers in we get quite a bit of energy: set the proton radius r_p to 1E-15, and we get U = q_e^2 / ( 4 \pi \eps_0 r_p ) ~ 1.4 MeV, or a gamma of about 4, so yeah, it would be moving faster than c if we stayed with Newtonian mechanics. But there's another wrinkle: the 1.4 MeV of liberated potential energy won't all go into the electron's relativistic kinetic energy, because it is accelerating like crazy, especially in the final femtometers, and that acceleration (essentially Bremsstrahlung, although its not braking here) will generate an intense pulse of EM radiation as well - a decent fraction of the 1.4 MeV will go into that instead. You could perhaps estimate how much using the Larmor formula (in general calculating this radiation reaction force precisely becomes very complex, because the excitation of the EM wave modifies the acceleration, which modifies the excitation of the EM wave etc... And, now looking on Wikipedia, I'm not surprised to see that the first QM version of the calculation was done by Sommerfeld).
So yeah, the electron will zip through the proton, with much of the potential energy converted to an EM pulse that zips off to infinity, and so the electron is now bound to the proton, and will continue to zig zag back and forth, emitting more radiation until it comes to a rest inside the proton. So yeah, we do need QM after all.