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telchior

1,251 karma · joined February 12, 2022

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telchior··on Glacier Mice
There are multiple hyper-warming scenarios that have been postulated over the years. Look up the clathrate gun, ocean circulation collapse, arctic albedo flip.. some are now considered unlikely.

I don't know if any would be a Venus scenario, probably not. But we don't really need that much warming to kill ourselves off. Average global temps in the Eucene were up to double what they are today, that would do the job :)

telchior··on Young adults are poor despite every metric which suggests otherwise
According to census bureau data, 1 in 3 people aged 18-34 now live with parents, a huge change from past generations. So you're hardly an outlier in that respect.
telchior··on The infinite scroll may become endangered if controversial Calif. law passes
There's good reason for a lot of the inaction around asbestos. If it's not moving, not being touched and not accessible to kids / pets etc then it's fine to leave alone. The alternative being extremely costly remediation, and there are still millions of structures with asbestos in them.

... Prop 65 is dumb though. Kind of a trend in California law.

telchior··on Half-Baked Product
You're at the least a good writer. It's a lot like music (or any other artform). No matter how good the result, even if it's utterly sublime, there will be a group who doesn't enjoy it.
telchior··on Professor denounces mass AI fraud on an exam at Brown
Yes, but it must be the university approved version that costs 20x the consumer / business version.

Sounds like sarcasm, but the wheels appear to already be in motion on this.

telchior··on Apple's weird anti-nausea dots cured my car sickness
One of the other key issues (besides FOV which was mentioned) is the size of the virtual space relative to the speed your character moves at. So for example, Half Life 2 has you moving around in a lab building pretty quickly > instant nausea for me. Meanwhile running around outdoors in Skyrim might not bother you at all.

Visual complexity ups the ante. Think of walking through a grocery store with high shelves filled with a variety of products -- this can cause migraine in some people and, to a lesser extent, also affects vertigo. So you may not want to play, say, grocery store simulators (although I have no idea who actually does anyway, why are those things popular!?).

telchior··on Is Meta destroying its engineering organization?
Yeah I utterly despise using Google Maps now because of this. In my neighborhood, there are restaurants that will only appear at a very specific zoom level. Zoom in OR out and they'll disappear.

I see things when I'm out and about all the time that just never appear on Google Maps -- cafes for instance. You can search cafe, coffee, restaurant, etc and they won't appear. Search the exact name and it comes up with 300 reviews. Sometimes, they'll come up in general search in week 1, disappear in week 2, and reappear in week 3.

Google is not good at consumer software and not a responsible company in many ways; Maps really deserves to be replaced with something, but unfortunately there's no competitor to speak of. Apple Maps is nice but listings don't come up because they're literally not in the database.

telchior··on Americans Are Leaving the U.S. in Record Numbers
I left over a decade ago, but I actually considered coming back around 2024, so I put some research into it. The result was grim.

- I'm now married to a non-American who is not white. We're not confident in the immigration process, to say the least

- Both of us are self-employed; the quote for decent (not good, I mean aggressively mediocre) insurance was very high

- Housing costs in any city we wanted to live in were very high; YMML on this obviously, but it covers a lot of cities

- Any social ill, irritation, etc that was annoying me around 2010 is unsolved with no signs of progress

- Extreme political polarization (actually a both sides thing)

- The rise of aggressive Christian nationalism (very much a one side thing)

- A horrifying pace of growth in political corruption

Everywhere has its bad points and none of these are necessarily worse than a randomly chosen second country. I think the final deciding factor is just vibes; I feel like America is declining, the culture I was born into is warping, and I don't particularly want to watch it happen from the inside, now that I'm already on the outside.

telchior··on Declining America
I think you've misunderstood the idea. Tim Bray and the OP of this thread aren't afraid to visit the US; the key phrase used in the post is "as a matter of principle".
telchior··on Iran starts Bitcoin-backed ship insurance for Hormuz strait
No government has accepted Iranian tolls so far, but some shippers sure have; ships have been passing through the strait. Those shipments go on to countries with governments. I don't think you can actually know that there wasn't government support for any of those payments so far.

And cryptocurrency should be even better for deniability. In reality it would be a really good idea for certain governments that rely heavily on Middle Eastern oil (e.g. Philippines) to pay fees in the short term. More than a month ago the Philippines was already claiming to have "safe and preferential access", if that involves money they'll pay it. (https://www.rappler.com/business/philippine-flagged-ships-sa...)

telchior··on VS Code inserting 'Co-Authored-by Copilot' into commits regardless of usage
That someone saw Google's claim that 75% of their code is written with AI and said "hold my beer".

Juiced stats? No such thing, at least as long as stock number go up.

telchior··on I am directing the Department of War to designate Anthropic a supply-chain risk
This makes an interesting assumption: that being told by any member of government that you're legally required to do something, means you're required to do that thing, and that they're definitely not making those things up as they go.

But that's not the case, is it? The government can say that it's legally required to give Donald Trump a gold bar every Sunday. That wouldn't even be too far off from the outlandish claims we've seen over the past year. The Trump administration is, as Chapelle would put it, a habitual line stepper.

telchior··on Anthropic drops flagship safety pledge
Minor correction, expat income is deductible up to (currently) $130k under the FEIE. After that it's taxes as usual. There's also an array of other mandatory forms like FBAR for foreign accounts, and the nightmare that is form 5471, with absolutely wild allowances for the IRS to impose penalties, often with no statute of limitations and per-violation fines. For example, a US citizen with multiple bank accounts and a mistake in FBAR reporting for multiple years running will be liable for the (iirc) $10,000 fine for each bank account, and each year (e.g. 4 accounts, 8 years, $320,000 fine).

Living and doing business overseas is as a US citizen is a high risk endeavor.

telchior··on Play Aardwolf MUD
Those AOL prices were insane. It has admittedly been so long that I'm not sure I trust my memory, but I seem to recall per-minute pricing that could rack up over $20 per hour just from playing any of their text based games. I begged and begged my parents to let me just try one for a few minutes and they very wisely said absolutely not.

A few years went by and suddenly playing MUD / MOOs was free. I honestly miss those days, text-based has a vibe that no graphical game can ever replicate.

telchior··on TikTok unlawfully tracks shopping habits and use of dating apps?
I assume TikTok and similar apps are always doing this stuff.

The thing I'm curious about is whether the GDPR / DSB complaints are likely to have any result. Is that likely to just result in some cost of business fines and TikTok goes on with life? Or could those complaints bring about substantial repercussions?

telchior··on China has added forest the size of Texas since 1990
The population as a whole has a rapidly dwindling appetite for tech billionaires trying to impose "tough decisions and sacrifices" on everyone else, so Bill's probably in the right lane. He has already been the target of a vast array of conspiracy theories.
telchior··on Boring is what we wanted
I don't know if that's accurate to software developers, but it makes me cringe a bit as a game developer. I upgraded from a 1060 to 4060 and suddenly did waaaay less optimization; it just wasn't top of mind anymore. Of course, that bill still comes due eventually..
telchior··on Mosquitoes discovered in Iceland for the first time
I've read that there are tribes who spent a month or more at the peak of biting insect season hiding in their tents and filling them with smoke. The bugs swarm so thickly that they can kill cows. Not by biting them to death, but by clogging their nostrils until the cow suffocates.
telchior··on Trump pardons convicted Binance founder
You're being downvoted but I get where you're coming from.

The dismay is from not needing to speculate, wonder or theorize about why he did this pardon. It's a quid pro quo pardon for helping the Trump family make billions of dollars in under a year using the office of the president. The corruption is entirely flagrant and open.

Yeah, it's a forum of smart people, but none of those smarts are oriented to dealing with this kind of problem. There's a system but it's non-functional, laws but they're ignored, the tools are raw political and social power. It's going to take a while to figure out what to say and do about the slide from normal, functioning democracy into semi-theocratic banana republic.

telchior··on Trump pardons convicted Binance founder
Yeah the whole "successful businessman" schtick is pretty much a trope in US elections. Before Trump it was Ross Perot, before Perot it was others like Wendell Wilkie. Trump had that going for him AND the celebrity status like Reagan. These things are basically status buffs for elections in the US.
telchior··on Marc Benioff: I no longer believe National Guard is needed for SF
Yeah I'm similarly confused by the idea that it was great a decade ago. SoMa, which more or less includes Moscone, has been gritty for at least 20 years and probably much longer than that.

Similar for a lot of other parts. Market anywhere between 6th and City Hall has been grimy for a long time. The Tenderloin, I'm assuming, has been the way it is for a century (since it derives its name from police getting higher pay for patrolling it). That stuff is all stumbling distance to the downtown core, tourists and business visitors.

telchior··on Trump to impose $100k fee for H-1B worker visas, White House says
Every change this admin implements needs this examination first. Everyone is in here having earnest discussions about policy pros and cons, but it ain't that country anymore.

The companies the admin favors are being given backdoors for every policy that's presented, and the way to become favored is to present bribes, whether they come in the form of gold plaques, lawsuit settlements, crypto investments, or stock market collusion.

telchior··on AI overviews cause massive drop in search clicks
In my view it's a pretty straightforward calculation. Nothing is free, no knowledge is instant. Start off knowing your time investment to learn anything is greater than zero and go from there..

If you do a Google (or other engine) search, you have to invest time pawing through the utter pile of shit that Google ads created on the web. Info that's hidden under reams of unnecessary text, potentially out of date, potentially not true; you'll need to evaluate a list of links and, probably, open multiple of them.

If you do an AI "search", you ask one question and get one answer. But the answer might a hallucination or based on incorrect info.

However, a lot of the time, you might be searching for something you already have an idea of, whether it's how to structure a script or what temperature pork is safe at; you can use your existing knowledge to assess the AI's answer. In that case the AI search is fast.

The rest of the time, you can at least tell the AI to include links to its references, and check those. Or its answer may help you construct a better Google search.

Ultimately search is a trash heap of Google's making, and I have absolute confidence in them also turning AI into a trash heap, but for now it is indeed faster for many purposes.

telchior··on After court order, OpenAI is now preserving all ChatGPT user logs
You're being generous to even grant an "even if it does" proposition. Considering the people musing about "reform" of copyright at the moment -- Jack Dorsey's little flip "delete all IP law" comes to mind -- the clear direction we're headed is toward artistic and cultural serfdom.
telchior··on Duolingo CEO tries to walk back AI-first comments, fails
When I returned to Duolingo recently -- I used to use it heavily but set it aside for 2 years -- I counted 14 gamification popups in a row after my first lesson in a new language.

14! The damned popups lasted longer than the lesson had!

I switched over to Busuu, which has blatantly copied some of Duolingo's mechanics but at least uses them with a modicum of restraint.

telchior··on I have tinnitus. I don't recommend it
Here's a better alternative to YouTube noise loops: https://mynoise.net/noiseMachines.php
telchior··on A New Headache for Honest Students: Proving They Didn't Use A.I
I wonder if lack of consequences might be related to lack of proof. Cheating in the past looked like reusing an essay you found online or paying off someone to write it for you -- methods that offer a definitive way to prove it happened.

AI isn't particularly provable. Worse, a lot of professors are lazy and will rely on tools that tell them something was produced with AI; and like any tool, they'll produce false positives. Just imagine being expelled for writing because you don't make spelling mistakes, and do use em-dashes, bullet points and typographic emphasis.

telchior··on Expanding on what we missed with sycophancy
A lot of human empathy isn't real either. Defaulting to the most extreme example, narcissists use love bombing to build attachment. Sales people use "relationship building" to make money. AI actually seems better than these -- it isn't building up to a rug pull (at least, not one that we know of yet).

And it's getting worse year after year, as our society gets more isolated. Look at trends in pig butchering, for instance: a lot of these are people so incredibly lonely and unhappy that they fall into the world's most obvious scam. AI is one of the few things that actually looks like it could work, so I think realistically it doesn't matter that it's not real empathy. At the same time, Sam Altman looks like the kind of guy who could be equally effective as a startup CEO or running a butchering op in Myanmar, so I hope like hell the market fragments more.

telchior··on Ask HN: Do you still use search engines?
You've just made me realize that I actually do need that as a macro. Probably type that ten times per day lately. Others might include "in one sentence" or "only answer yes or no, and link sources proving your assertion".
telchior··on John Carmack on AI in game programming
You missed one: theft.

When you click a button in Unity or Roblox or whatever to generate a new texture, the thing that gets generated comes from a model that could not have been built without using IP. But because it all got chucked into a blender and turned into an anonymous slurry -- and because AI is a politically important growth industry -- the people whose work went into the slurry will not benefit, at all. They'll never see a dime, while the companies selling the slurry will get billions. A lot of those people are the exact ones whose job will be replaced, which is extra painful when you know it was your own work that was used to replace you.

Although in a sense it's pointless to bring up because that milk is already spilt, and it ain't gonna get back into the container.

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