This isn't just climate change though, that period was significantly colder than previous periods (google 'little ice age'). Not disputing man made climate change at all, but the earth naturally goes through warming and cooling phases and we shouldn't expect New York to be as cold as 1800 today even without climate change.
Of course this kind of natural change is what gives ammunition to climate deniers!
Dalton and Michael talk about folks pivoting too much and not fully learning/validating from each pivot in this recent video. Obviously I don't know anything about what you've been doing but perhaps there's some wisdom here: https://www.ycombinator.com/blog/when-to-pivot-and-when-to-s...
I wondered that too. A subtle endorsement of Sama perhaps. A way of saying there's no bad blood there despite what the press was saying about his 'firing' from YC. Sama did a great job running YC, and certainly made PG a boatload of money. Also seeing the success at OpenAi, hard to argue Sama didn't make the right call to leave and focus on it, could hardly have done that plus keep running YC. (my guess at what happened is Sama started openai on the side and gradually it became more and more of his focus until there was a conversation about whether he should focus exclusively on it, which they mutually decided should happen).
I'm struck by the parallelism between this process of writing the best essay, and the process of developing a successful startup. Both require starting with a good question, that sets the upper bound for the value to be created. Both require curiosity, and hopefully to reveal some unintuitive insight. Both are functions of their time, what is a good startup today is not timeless much as what makes a good essay today is not timeless. And so on...
We're an 8 digit ARR DTC brand, not suprised at these results. After the apple/facebook tracking issues we took our spend down to zero as it wasn't working. Facebook has fixed their alogorithms though and full credit to them our spend is working again and they are back to getting the lion share of our spend. Full credit to them!
You can wring your hands about this, but it's largely a function of interest rates. Those have fallen dramatically over the time period, mortgages used to be in the teens. Let's see if this persists in the new interest rate environment we are in.
Future revenues are discounted to present value using a discount rate that increases as interest rates increase. This is called a discount cash flow model. Initiatively this makes sense because if a future dollar was the same as a today dollar you could just invest today's dollars in treasuries and have more in the future.
I spent a summer in Papua New Guinea in 1999 where I had the opportunity to meet one of these folks. He was a british man, from Yorkshire, who through force of believe made first contact with the tribe in the 1970s. His first job was to chop down the forest to make a runway, from which he could bring food from the sky which secured his position with the tribe. From there he developed a writing system for their language so they could read the bible, he'd recently finished the New Testement and was starting on the Old Testement. Sometime after the runway he'd brought over his wife who'd essentially built a british farm house with crockery in the jungle and they'd had 4 or 5 kids who mostly flew for the Missionary Airforce. Talk about a lifelong dedication!
The most fascinating thing about the place was that later the whole area had been designated a special scientific survey protection region. They protected the environment by scientists bringing money to do research to pay the locals (kind of like eco tourism protection for areas that aren't very safe for tourists). These folks were mostly hardcore evolutionary biologists rather than creationists like the missionaries, so there were older folks living in the village who in their life had gone through the history of western philosophy: they grew up with animast beliefs, converted to christianity as teenagers and now are experts on evolution. Conversations with them about the nature of existence remain some of the most inspiring and interesting in my life, I recorded a bunch and keep meaning to transcribe off cassette tape sometime.
I've played both Cyberpunk and Red Dead Redemption on my Quest 2 via pc link, using Luke Ross RealVR mod [1] and they were amazing. Setting up the tech is fiddly and even when you get it running updates constantly break it, so it's not quite consumer ready, but if you hack together experiences they will blow your mind.
[1] https://www.patreon.com/realvr
How have you thought about pricing? I would have thought a small increase in price would make a big difference to your bottom line given the difference between your revenues and profits.
What's your evidence for this? In my experience, losing both my parents and all grandparents, everyone was ready to go long before they did. My dad passed away comfortably in his sleep in reasonable health (for 84 year old) and he'd been talking about being ready for months. My grandmother told us she wished she was dead like all her friends for a decade before she passed away (she was late 90s). My mother had cancer and chose to go at her own time like one of the comments above about MAID.
I agree with you that this is the killer app to unlock the metaverse. When everyone can create their own spaces usage will explode like Facebook or YouTube. What makes you think he's too early though? As long as he can keep funding until that point he'll win when it happens surely?
It's the USDA that will regulate the actual manufacturing and processing, not the FDA. As the article mentions that process hasn't started yet. It's hopefully quicker/easier than the FDA safety approvals however.
This was a real trend, but it's not going to survive the current collapse in VC valuations. It's all well and good selling a puffed up valuation on capital in a bull market but now investors care about profits and fundementals again and most of these businesses aren't designed for that world. RIP.
Even if he did invest, why would that weaken Twitter at this point? The deal is done, SBF wouldn't be able to pull his money out of it if he wanted to.
This demand effect is certainly real, but is going to be weighed against the higher rates effect. A lot of the increase in prices was purely mathematically driven by the falling interest rates. The monthly payment if you get a mortgage has now doubled for most people. There's no way that's sustainable, especially as most first time buyers were already stretcing to their limit. All it takes is a belief that prices might fall to put off buyers a year or two and balance the demand side of the equation enough for prices to fall. House prices typically fall slowly though, as sellers are reluctant to sell at first and buyers just start waiting. Seems we are already seeing that impact on transaction volumes drying up.
Depends what you want to buy. Asset prices (property, stocks, bonds) are deflating right now, so your purchasing power is actually increasing in regards to those investments.
You can't do that though because at a certain point inflation expectations become inbuilt and then people want to get paid more, spend more now rather than save (expecting higher prices next year) etc etc. This makes those inflation expectations self-fulfilling. The fed really needs to be aggressive enough to affect those expectations.
One difference is taxes, the UK price includes VAT whereas the USA price adds tax at checkout so they aren't really comparable numbers. Further, the pound has fallen so you'd expect they have to increase the GBP price to maintain margin.
I'm not sure the peak is driven by fresh eyes. I think fluid intelligence is a big requirement and the brain peaks in that regard in your 20's. It doesn't mean you can't still make great progress later in life, but it sure does get harder in my personal experience.
Depends on the business school. At INSEAD we had a whole elective class devoted to personal psycological decisions like this to get people thinking about what kind of trade offs they wanted to make.
High Fidelity tried to build this and failed. I think one of the issues they had was that the whole hosting thing was pretty tricky and created barriers to having worlds up all the time, this meant there were never as many places to explore as other more closed systems like VRChat. I'm not totally sure how you solve for that, maybe they should have hosted some sites themselves?
It's not about trading pairs, those can easily switch to USDC or other stables. The big challenge will be the futures markets which are nearly exclusively with USDT. If tether collapses so do all those futures, which presumably will cause chaotic algorithmic driven effects as hedging positions evaporate.