HNHacker News
TopNewBestAskShowJobs

tdees40

1,221 karma · joined March 1, 2013

timothy dot dees at gmail dot com
submissionscomments
tdees40··on The death of Rackspace’s ‘fanatical support’
So it may not be illegal in all cases (although it is in many cases), but how does failing to deliver close out a short position?
tdees40··on The death of Rackspace’s ‘fanatical support’
I work in markets. No, you cannot just fail to deliver. I'm also not sure how the ETF thing would work. If it's 1% of the ETF you're going to hedge out the position using a giant notional. It doesn't work.
tdees40··on Reddit is raising a huge round near a $3B valuation
It amazes me that a fourteen year old company with a mature business model requires equity financing. I'll never really understand how tech companies work, I guess.
tdees40··on Peloton raises $550M at a valuation of $4B
Why do they need financing? How is a company that sells $2000 exercise bikes not profitable?
tdees40··on Where are all the films about poor Americans?
Wendy and Lucy! Also, TV is better: Atlanta and the Wire are great about poverty.
tdees40··on Amazon, Berkshire, JPMorgan to Create Healthcare Company
I'm genuinely fascinated by this comment. You're saying that mutuals offer lower prices (not typically true), but they were out-competed by private companies? I'm not sure that makes sense. In my sector (life insurance), there's no real pattern to mutual vs public company pricing, but maybe it's different in auto insurance, for instance.
tdees40··on Bitcoin and almost every other cryptocurrency crashed hard today
Yes, but the dollar also has a very long history of being extremely stable. Said another way, the dollar has never had a 30% shock in a year (BTC did today...)
tdees40··on Twitter, It’s Time to End Your Anything-Goes Paradise
Sure, but there's like umpteen million terrible accounts...seems like a lot to ask of your users.
tdees40··on Twitter, It’s Time to End Your Anything-Goes Paradise
No, how about users (me, at least) are leaving Twitter because it's a rotten cesspool of misogyny, racism and stupidity. Maybe users should get a choice to avoid some of this?
tdees40··on Lopifit – The Electric Walking Bike
If you were looking to exercise, wouldn't you just ... ride a bike? And if you aren't looking to exercise, why do you want to walk on a treadmill while riding an e-bike?
tdees40··on Tesla’s Push to Build a Self-Driving Car Sparks Dissent Among Its Engineers
Yes, there are lots of complaints about it handling curves poorly, misreading overpasses as solid objects, etc. etc.
tdees40··on Tesla’s Push to Build a Self-Driving Car Sparks Dissent Among Its Engineers
I just ordered a Model S with Autopilot, and as I've been reading the comments on the various Tesla forums, I'm not sure I'm ever going to use it. Some of the stories are honestly terrifying (sudden deceleration on the highway, swerving into other lanes, etc).
tdees40··on Soylent Closes $50M Series B Round Led by GV
It's a food company, and its product is fully baked. Why aren't they bootstrapping? Are they not profitable? If so, how do they have a business? If I sold ketchup at a loss, would I be able to close a $50M financing round?
tdees40··on RethinkDB joins the Linux Foundation: What Happens Next
My weird and unrelated question is: if I donate software to an open source group like the Linux Foundation, can I write it off my taxes? And if so, how do I assess the value of it? RethinkDB probably has some legitimate market value...can the founders reflect that on their taxes?
tdees40··on PyTorch – Tensors and Dynamic neural networks in Python
Yes, but Keras works just fine using Theano as a backend as well...
tdees40··on PyTorch – Tensors and Dynamic neural networks in Python
At this point I've used PyTorch, Tensorflow and Theano. Which one do people prefer? I haven't done a ton of benchmarking, but I'm not seeing huge differences in speed (mostly executing on the GPU).
tdees40··on Uber Loses at Least $1.2B in First Half of 2016
I mean sure, there are. In fact, there are lots of pretty standard ideas of what constitutes profitability. But if you just say, we're profitable, most people will assume you mean on a GAAP net income basis. If you don't mean that, you can say, we're cash flow positive or something like that. Or you could say, "we're profitable on an EBIT basis," or we have a positive gross margin. You can't just say, hey! if you exclude a bunch of our costs and count all of our revenue, the revenue is bigger!
tdees40··on Uber Loses at Least $1.2B in First Half of 2016
I want to put this comment in a time capsule so I can tell my kids what start-up life was like in 2016.
tdees40··on Less stress, more productivity: working fewer hours is good for you and your boss
I've always wondered why more companies don't do this. Offer a 30 or 35 hour work week and watch the top-notch candidates roll in, even though you can't offer a top-notch salary.
tdees40··on Playing “Moneyball” on EA FIFA 16
I often played FIFA on my phone, and the trick was just to hire to best possible scout and then constantly send him out, and your team would be unstoppable pretty quickly. Scouts found outrageously good players with unrealistic frequency.
tdees40··on Bitcoin has computed 2^83.9 hashes
Banks and Bitcoin serve radically different purposes. (Try getting a mortgage from Bitcoin!) A more appropriate comparison would be the percentage of bank energy that goes to payment processing, which is probably pretty low.
tdees40··on Ask HN: 11 days off for Christmas vacation – What would you learn?
I read Koine/Classical/Homeric Greek reasonably well. Message me (e-mail in profile) if you have any questions.
tdees40··on Chemical clears Alzheimer's protein and restores memory in mice
There's a growing body of evidence that Alzheimer's is really just "Type 3 Diabetes":

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2769828/

tdees40··on The History of the Black-Scholes Formula
I dunno the model but my dad had one.
tdees40··on The History of the Black-Scholes Formula
This is a pretty silly piece.

First of all, the vast majority of LTCM's trades had nothing at all to do with the Black-Scholes-Merton formula (BSM). They were just highly levered mean reversion trades. The fall of LTCM had nothing to do with the BSM formula, it had everything to do with leverage.

Secondly, vanilla BSM with constant volatility isn't really used to do anything important anymore. It was going away much earlier than 1997 anyway; the Heston model came around in 1993, and Derman was using a primitive version of local vol around the same time. And of course people knew that financial asset returns were not normally distributed with constant vol (Mandelbrot wrote a paper describing that in 1963!).

I won't even get into why his (and Salmon's) description of how the Li formula was used is completely wrong.

tdees40··on Baltic Dry Index Falls Below 500 for First Time
N=1
tdees40··on The design of the Strict Haskell pragma
I love Idris as much as the next guy, but I doubt virtually anyone is using it for production code. By contrast, there are millions upon millions of lines of Haskell code in production all over the world.
tdees40··on The design of the Strict Haskell pragma
I love the idea that Haskell users are all wringing their hands about .... Idris.
tdees40··on Debt Market Distortions Go Global as Nothing Makes Sense Anymore
The language in this is a bit silly:

"Nowhere is that more evident than in the U.S., where lending to the government should be far safer than speculating on the direction of interest rates with Wall Street banks."

You aren't "speculating on the direction of interest rates with Wall Street banks", you're buying a synthetic rates position that is centrally cleared with daily variation margin. That's not quite US Treasury safe, but it's pretty damn safe.

tdees40··on Debt Market Distortions Go Global as Nothing Makes Sense Anymore
It's pretty simple really. Swaps are now centrally cleared, so you have to post collateral through a clearinghouse. If on any day, one party cannot settle up on their daily variation margin, the trade is terminated.

Compare this to before, when swaps were often un-collateralized, so you might have a huge paper profit on a trade that you'll never actually realize because the counterparty lacks the cash to settle up.

So before, you could lose the total amount of your trade, but now you can only lose a day's worth of gain or loss.

This is a big improvement, and the risk to the taxpayer is pretty de minimus. Of course the central clearinghouse could default, but that's very unlikely for a variety of reasons (mostly that the central clearinghouse's whole reason for existence is not to default).

Page 1 of 8Next →