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switch11

602 karma · joined April 17, 2020

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switch11··on HSBC moved vast sums of dirty money after paying record laundering fine
agreed 100%

When something is postured to 'benefit the every day people' you can bet it does the exact opposite

switch11··on Dating is better than ever with social distancing
Among my friends and I there is NO ONE who is having a better dating life during the pandemic

so not sure what the heck this article is about

Where do people on Hacker News meet their future significant other or people they date?

Bars - gone

Cafes/Coffee Shops - mostly gone

Museums/Art Galleries - mostly closed

House Parties - gone

Friends of Friends - almost gone

Random Luck - almost completely gone

*

Online dating - really sucks

I guess pandemic must be really good for people who specialize in online dating. For everyone else it sucks

switch11··on Is revenue model more important than culture?
Agreed 100% -> Frankly its a bit scary that people honestly (and I truly believe you to be honest) believe Google could be a "most ethical" company.

Among my friends there are so many that work for dodgy companies and believe they are doing something good

In Seattle my friends and I ran into a girl who worked for a spybar/spy install bar company and she was completely OK with it. She actually liked working there

Of course, now it turns out that Google, Facebook, Amazon do far worse stuff than spyware companies

*

reminds me of an old quote - It is impossible to make a man realize something when his pay check depends on him not realizing it

switch11··on Is revenue model more important than culture?
First: Product Market Fit

Second: Monetization

Third: Growth

Culture isn't even in the Top 3 and might not even be in the Top 5

* One very important Caveat

In today's zero interest rate, Fed printing press environment

where money is DESPERATE for any kind of return

Growth will sometimes trump Monetization and even Product Market Fit

VCs will focus on Growth above all else because with Growth you can raise enough money to 'brute force' Product Market Fit

Culture, as opposed to what all the 'gurus' and 'politically correct people' say and pretend

is not as important as any of the above

You can see a lot of successful companies that don't necessarily have very good culture

Culture is something that will matter 10 to 20 years down the line once you're a big or very big company

If you don't have Product Market Fit, you won't survive

If you don't have good monetization/profitability you won't last very long (unless Product Market Fit and/or growth is massive)

If you don't have Growth, then you will always remain small/much smaller than you could be

One thing a lot of people in US/UK/Canada (have lived in all 3 countries) believe VERY STRONGLY IN and which people from China/India/Africa (worked with all; non work friends from all places) don't believe in AT ALL

is this Western Dream State of a company also being focused on saving pandas and bald eagles and world peace

It's almost as if in the West it's not enough to be successful you also have to

A) Pretend you never intended to be successful. It was a happy byproduct of wanting to make the world a better place

B) Start talking non stop about how much you will donate to charity

C) Start saying 'it was all luck' and 'not the better people won' etc

*

This is also reflected in a different way

In the West people are super likely to be made a fool of by a company pretending to be virtuous

Google and Facebook are good examples

They work so hard to pretend all their unethical steps are 'mistakes' or 'one off instances'

people in the West just buy it hook, line and sinker

things like: Even after we turned off the setting to track location, Google was still tracking it

things like: Instagram had camera on all the time, it was just a bug and had nothing to do with ad targeting and spying

*

For all the talk of China and INdia and South East Asia and Africa being corrupt

companies like this are very quickly identified to be scum and taken down, sometimes even by the Government

Basically, the people who control Europe and US are very, very good at making it seem all magical fantasy land

Snowden is a good example. He's basically being treated as if HE was the one doing all the spying and illegal surveillance

switch11··on Nikola founder Trevor Milton to voluntarily step down as executive chairman
that escalated quickly
switch11··on Kraken Wins Bank Charter Approval
very well put -> We are all in this together -- building a better overall financial and computing systems.
switch11··on Robert Pirsig’s Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance Still Resonates Today
This is arguably the best book I've ever read

Would very strongly recommend reading it when you have 1 week to half a year free/avaiable

It will really mess with your head and your perception of reality

It's some really high level stuff

switch11··on The age-old strategy of buying cheap shares is faltering
you know something is wrong when Hacker News has better investment advice than all the 'experts' on Wall Street

anyways, very happy to see so many people get it

switch11··on I just realized I have been running 99% fraud sites
based on my own experience with Adsense

we probably are

*

one other thing people should keep an eye on

Google inserting Adsense tags into organic traffic

people who were coming to your site anyways - Google pretending it's paid Adwords traffic

switch11··on Facebook Accused of Watching Instagram Users Through Cameras
Yes, actually people would

Many of the people who use Instagram are ones who stopped using Facebook due to privacy issues and their grandpa and grandma showing up

They didn't know Facebook owns Instagram

Facebook is stuck in this loop where it has to keep buying competitors because its own users lose faith and leave

If Instagram didn't sell to Facebook, Facebook would be screwed

Currently, FB has Instagram, Whatsapp and Messenger

By some special deal with the Government they are trying to nuke TikTok

If that doesn't work they are in trouble

Many of the newer companies that are growing won't sell to FB

(Tik Tok, Snapchat, Telegram, etc)

switch11··on Facebook Accused of Watching Instagram Users Through Cameras
yeah, people like to believe Snowden didn't happen

Look back at everything he revealed

That's LITERALLY conspiracy Theory proven to be conspiracy reality

And that guy, Keith Alexander, is now on the board of Amazon

so giving large tech companies like Google, Amazon, FB the benefit of the doubt is insanity

switch11··on Facebook Accused of Watching Instagram Users Through Cameras
This is very well put

Not sure why someone is assuming Facebook did this for an honest reason when Facebook is the best example of an extremely dishonest large tech company

*

The founder Zucker berg literally wrote - They trust me, the dumb fucks

He wrote this in college

He has shown a pattern of treating his users as 'dumb fucks'

Again and again more and more data comes up that Facebook is a dishonest company. not a 'by mistake' dishonest, but a fundamentally dishonest company

And always White Knights like this guy show up claiming 'it is to optimize loading speed)

*

Now Facebook is finally getting into trouble with even the left, because instead of helping Obama get elected it seems now they are helping Trump get elected

So their own dishonesty is so extreme that they are trying to help both Democrats and Republicans thinking both sides are dumb fucks that will forget what Facebook did to screw them over in past elections

switch11··on The Rise and Fall of Pret a Manger
yeah

wonder how many of the people claiming Pret a Manger is worse than 7-11 have actually ever eaten at Pret a Manger

switch11··on The Rise and Fall of Pret a Manger
Pret a Manger

1) Amazing food

2) Very nicely set up

3) Just read the blogs etc. that London women write about Pret a Manger. In their minds it's the kind of place where they can get good food and also find 'the man of their dreams'

4) very little real competition

5) most people have a decent amount of disposable income. You can eat utter rubbish at a fast food joint, or you can terrible tasting food from a convenience store, or you can eat at a good place like Pret a Manger

6) Quick

*

They do a lot of things right

If your target audience has money, then providing them a high quality service and pricing it higher is good

It's also a big help if the pricing ensures that only upwardly mobile people can afford it

Go into a fish and chips in london and you have half of East London in there, innit?

go to Pret a Manger and it's people you wouldn't mind having a pint at the pub with

switch11··on Review: We do not recommend the $299 Oculus Quest 2 as your next VR system
Facebook basically wants to build a low key version of the matrix

1 billion people on universal income, doing nothing except getting up, putting on Virtual Reality headsets, spending 8 hours in imaginary worlds, where Facebook tracks everything and keeps showing them products they can spend their Universal income on

then take a break for food

then spend another 6 hours in imaginary worlds

then go to sleep

*

A Human Farm. Facebook with help of VR 'entertains' mindless corpses

Universal income keeps them going along, and whatever is left they spend on pointless products advertised to them in FB virtual reality

switch11··on Google says it doesn't monopolize digital ad market – senators don't buy it
Excellent Comment

Let's consider a few more examples of abuse of market dominance

1) Retail Me Not

Google through Google Venture secretly invested in them and didn't disclose that

Then for next 3 years, Retail Me Not was #1 for EVERY SINGLE deal and coupon search term on Google

Is that an abuse of market dominance? Pretty Sure

Is it illegal? According to US Anti Trust Law - not sure. A lawyer can step in

2) A market we are in

The largest 2 players (us and another company) are #40 and #41 when people search for the biggest key word

Not #2, Not #10

At #40 and #41

Who is in the Top 10?

companies that advertise A LOT on Google, even though they are distant 4th and 6th in the market

Not only that, they do it in blatant ways

Last year, they pumped up organic traffic to one of our competitors THIRTY TIMES over night

So, the top two companies (another company and us) saw ZERO CHANGE

However, a company that is a distant 4th in the market suddenly got its organic search engine traffic increased 30 times

Pretty sure in 3 or 4 years it will be revealed that Google invested in them or did some tie up

*

Google is basically using Search as a weapon

switch11··on Chuck Feeney Is Now Officially Broke
can we please keep the pro Tesla posts on Tesla threads

For God's Sake

Let this great guy who gave away $8 billion of his hard earned money get proper credit without dragging a @#$#$ subsidy entrepreneur into it

switch11··on The Obsolescence of Advertising in the Information Age (2018) [pdf]
I hear this mentioned a lot

A) What you wrote: Not to mention the brightest engineers, managers are being sucked en-masse into FAANG and the supporting industries, where they waste humanities potential into improving engagement by 0.001%.

But then, if everyone did what I did, could capitalism even survive?

B) What people say about 'the brightest wasting their time on Wall Street instead of creating things'

*

Why are we assuming these people would do something meaningful with their lives if they were not working on 'better advertising and better conversion'

??

Perhaps they would just be doing something else that pays well but has little long term contribution to humanity

switch11··on We View Nikola’s Response as a Tacit Admission of Securities Fraud
yeah, Nikola pretty much admitted they lied

It's interesting that everything they have done is not PROVABLY fraud, and yet is on the very line between slightly unethical and actually illegal

pretty crazy

switch11··on A whistleblower says Facebook ignored global political manipulation
you write: this isn't the NSA or anything

They sort of ARE the NSA

NSA CIA are part of the fabric of Silicon Valley and especially companies like

Amazon, Google, Facebook

CONTRAST with Apple where as long as Steve Jobs was CEO Apple flat out refused to join any of the 'Patriot surveillance and stop terrorim by spying on American citizens and the entire world' coalition

switch11··on The 41 Books Mark Zuckerberg Has Recommended on Facebook
really need to stop letting Zuckerberg create multiple accounts and downvote this
switch11··on SoftBank set to sell UK’s Arm Holdings to Nvidia for $40B
Very well put

The biggest thing if you have been in prolonged vicious competition, is to Control Your Own Destiny and leave the basket of crabs behind

For Nvidia this is a MASSIVE win

Softbank are @#$@#$ idiots for selling ARM

Right when ARM is finally taking over the world

For what?

So they can fund the next bunch of charlatans - add more disasters like WeWork and Uber?

switch11··on Nikola Denies 'Fraud' Allegations, Threatens Legal Action Against Short-Sellers
This is interesting to me

I watched some videos of Trevor Milton. He has ZERO signs he is faking

HOWEVER

A) Just because someone's body language and presentation is PERFECT doesn't mean they are telling the truth. They might have convinced themselves of the lie

B) The Truck Video is SUPER DODGY. It's shot from an angle that makes it impossible to tell what the incline angle is. It could VERY easily be just a truck with no engine rolling down a slight incline

C) The walkthroughs etc. Trevor Milton does are SUPER DODGY.

Elon Musk with Tesla talks about crazy things that might never happen (Full Auto Pilot Level 5 Driving) but half of the crazy stuff he DELIVERS

Trevor Milton seems to be just as good as Musk at promising things, but so far has not delivered anything

*

On the one hand, it would be great if Nikola delivers a great truck

Competition for Tesla

Death to these parasitic short sellers

ON THE OTHER HAND

Don't see what exactly is the VALUE Nikola is providing. GM is building everything. So is Nikola's contribution selling a great story ???

It's like Musk's ability to sell stories, but lacking Musk's abilities to

A) get subsidies from the government B) actually deliver products

Trevor Milton and Nikola are getting money from the stock market. That comes with a lot of dangers which government contracts and subsidies do not

switch11··on JPMorgan to trade shares of pre-IPO giants including SpaceX, Robinhood, Airbnb
Isn't there a rule that more than a certain number of share holders -> Must go public

This:

alex_young 14 minutes ago [–]

Won’t this force them to go public? Too many shareholders? reply

How can they skirt around these rules?

switch11··on I Want to Fix Goodreads
3 of the things most people miss is

A) The intersection between people who love books and love technology is rather small

B) There is no 'monetization ramp up' when producing products for books and publishing

Monetization if you are a startup in books and publishing is via either

Amazon Associate - However, Amazon will kick you out if they want to enter the same business

Example: https://the-digital-reader.com/2016/06/15/amazon-brings-the-...

Selling Ads to Authors & Publishers - However Amazon will manipulate results

Example: https://the-digital-reader.com/2017/11/22/amazon-now-punishi...

so there is no easy path

Contrast that with something like Apps or Shopping where you can use affiliate networks and monetize right from the start. And a competitor like Google doesn't have control over the Affiliate networks (which in books, Amazon has)

C) Most authors are not tech savvy and keep doing crazy things like giving exclusivity to one store and create monopolies. They then get screwed by these monopolies

Why would you step into a market where

A) The competitors are monopolists who have no compulsion against doing illegal things

B) The participants (authors and Publishers) are in the 1950s technology wise

C) The participants (authors and publishers) keep doing strange stuff like give one ebook store exclusivity

CONTRAST what happened with Apps versus what happened with Books

Apps

Amazon wanted pricing control of apps and exclusivity. Developers gave them the middle finger

Amazon tried unlimited apps (including unlimited IAP purchases if you are on subscription) and developers didn't play along. They had to close down the service

Books

There were FIVE major stores - Kindle, Sony, Apple, B&N, Kobo

Amazon offered exclusivity to authors in return for (the comically bad incentive) - allowed to make book free for 5 days every 90 days, allowed to discount book as a special Kindle Countdown Deal for 7 days every 90 days

Authors gave Amazon exclusivity. Helped it get from 30-40% market share to 60-70% market share

Now completely dependent on Amazon

Kindle Unlimited - Amazon won't give authors and publishers data on how many people borrow, etc. Only 'total number of pages read'

Authors play along and now many are completely dependent on income from this 'subscription service' where they don't even know how many readers downloaded their book, how many read X% etc. Just one vague metric of 'total pages read by all readers'

So, to do well in this market you are suited for it IF

A) Your default is to take advantage of authors and publishers

OR

treat them like naive sheep who don't understand the basics of business

B) You are willing to go up against a large monopoly that will also do illegal things without remorse

Amazon just hired Keith Alexander - head of NSA during warrantless surveillance

Do you really want to compete against that?

C) somehow bridge the gap between books and publishing and technology

while keeping in mind that most of the top quality supply is controlled by 5 large companies (the Big 5 very big publishers)

You would be hard pressed to find ANY business to go into that is worse

The saying - An intelligent enemy is better than a stupid friend

This is an ecosystem where - your friends are naive (in effect, clueless), and your enemies are stupid (doing all sorts of illegal things because they are a monopoly and know the US does @#$$-all to monopoly power abusing companies

switch11··on Let employees sell their equity
Your answer illustrates what he's talking about

You are not even realizing what he's actually saying

HE's not talking about lowballing on salary

He is talking about what percentage of the company you are going to get, how soon you will get it, and other details

*

Most people won't get this. I will still try

A) What percentage of the company are you getting?

B) What dilution is going to happen?

C) When can you sell your stake in the company?

D) How soon and in what manner does it vest

* People fixate on things like 1,000 options without considering what it really means

Please consider what you wrote:

The standard for pre-IPO seems to me to be N number of options, at a particular strike price, 10-year expiration (or 90 days if you leave the company). That doesn't seem all that complicated to me, or deceptive.

NOWHERE in that is

What value do I bring the company

IN RETURN what percentage of the company am I getting

AT WHAT RATE will I be given that share of the company

switch11··on Nikola: How to Parlay an Ocean of Lies into a Partnership with GM
thank you for putting up this correction

There is literally no company on the planet that can justify a 896 PE

Let's see how long Tesla can keep things going with 1,000 PEs

They are projected (based on stock valuation) to take over all or most of

cars energy solar power

Which is quite an absurd assumption

switch11··on Original Bessemer Investment Memos for Shopify, Twilio, LinkedIn, Pinterest
likewise

perhaps more to learn from those

switch11··on Former NSA chief Keith Alexander has joined Amazon’s board of directors
This: This sounds tinfoil hat crazy, but here we are. Not so crazy now

At some point we need to just say it

some of the largest tech companies are basically NSA+CIA partners and we're well on our way to having

Big Tech completely integrated into NSA and CIA and DoD

switch11··on Netflix boss: Remote working has negative effects
Excellent comment

speaking to this: If you hate the office that badly, you’re probably working at the wrong place.

What percentage of people who 'prefer WFH' are just people who don't like where they work and who they work with?

Would be interesting if someone did a survey on this

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