(See stable diffusion/llama/ chatgpt)
There will be businesses that actually make money on these technologies, and they will be research heavy (even a 5% improvement is a big deal) as things are still getting figured out.
I could see speed dropping back towards 2017 like rates, but I kind of doubt we will ever see an true ai winter like the 90's early 00's
The field is just too young with too many things as of yet untried, along with the fact that I doubt funding will dry up any time soon. (There are too many interests, from Nvidia wanting to sell more chips, to Microsoft wanting to sell more productivity, to defence, and political concerns between the US and China.)
Yes, it won't go on forever, but also this time seems qualitatively different from the past AI cycles. (Granted I was not alive then)