73 karma · joined July 31, 2011
Twitter has a PIN code feature that requires every message to be prepended with a four-digit alphanumeric code. This feature mitigates the issue, but is not available to users inside the United States.
So they fixed the problem... but are withholding the fix from tons of users?In general your work may be complicated/sophisticated. But your results need to be simple.
He's saying they aren't perpendicular and also saying they are independent.
I think we basically agree; you may just be taking issue with my very explicit representation of the formula. All that's really happening here is just a weighted average of daily churn rates. I really think you need to average over a period of time to deal with normal volatility.
While the number '30' is in the formulation is not intended to mean that this metric can only be measured for a month. Rather it's just there to normalize the metric to always be comparable to the monthly rate. It would be very reasonable to take this metric for a month and for every week in the month and see if any of the weeks are substantially higher or lower.
I would be cautious with using this, or anything based on daily churn, to be used in a formula for predictions. If you want to predict what customers will do over x days it is far better to measure what customers have done over x days. What you lose in currency you more than make up for in having taken a direct measurement. Though I would happily use this metric to play in a model with computed weights.
Thanks again, Steven
That said, I ultimately never fell in love with R so perhaps my experience is a bad example (though I would argue there are lots of legitimate reasons not to fall in love with R)