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smorgusofborg

439 karma · joined July 26, 2021

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smorgusofborg··on Brazil's tragic ivermectin frenzy is a warning to the US, experts say
> …but there are highly vaccinated populations with high infection rates, right?

Israel is about the highest examined and it is not high enough to know how a control group of vaccinated verse unvaccinated individuals would fare in a place where any other individual was vaccinated or bellow 12.

95% was in a retail lock down environment. In the current environment I am having hundreds of interactions a week with the unvaccinated and if I were unvaccinated would have far fewer, obviously a test run in this environment should achieve less than 95% and may appear that vaccination causes COVID because the economy is running on acceptable risks.

smorgusofborg··on Brazil's tragic ivermectin frenzy is a warning to the US, experts say
That high level overview doesn't really mean it isn't stopping infections. In a place with ~50% vaccination a larger portion of unvaccinated are taking additional isolation precautions either by intelligence or by force, but infection could primarily be from a minority of super spreaders to others, etc so this data doesn't indicate that the current transmission mode would be possible in a highly vaccinated population.
smorgusofborg··on Brazil's tragic ivermectin frenzy is a warning to the US, experts say
You need to believe that vaccines stop an adequate proportion of the infections between vaccinated individuals to believe full vaccination would end the pandemic[1].

But you don't even have to believe that when it comes to the relevance of the pandemic. Looking at the number of people who are vaccinated (or bellow vaccination age) and go to hospital or die in my country it would be a severe but acceptable flu season. Does every severe flu season need a pandemic response?

(1- Within the round of first infections. You can actually believe that it is insufficient on contagion but ends viable mutation and will end the pandemic by using delta as a booster.)

smorgusofborg··on Brazil's tragic ivermectin frenzy is a warning to the US, experts say
> It can cause liver injury in a really small amount of cases, which should self correct.

Great, now multiply the usage expectations by 1000 and include that people in that pool will have each possible additional liver related factor. (Now "should" being 99% isn't even good enough.)

When we analyze how safe a vaccine is, a few dozen people who might have very specific health problems having potentially fatal reactions is a problem if we can't preidentify that group. When we allow a contagion to spread to endemic and therefore eventually encompass the entire population a treatment needs a closely proportional safety level to a vaccine and will eventually need to be far safer than any long acting vaccines.

If 10% of the population are going to take any treatment much more active than placebo, it has to be safer than most OTC medications for it not to kill a hundred times more people than giving everyone the least safe vaccine.

smorgusofborg··on Zero-Knowledge Proofs for Private Web Attestation with Multi-Vendor Hardware
It's not really bricking as the devices still work and remain as secure as they were before for the user specific keys, they simply fail attestation for cases where someone cares if the user is using a real and secure device. I.e. Banks/wallet services and cloudflare given their fear of Sybil attacks.

Personally, I would rather my banks accept Fido keys and tell me when I might need to replace one. Since the user keys are still fine, they technically only need to prevent the sign up of new keys if they trust information on when a device was compromised.

People compromising them for fun and publishing their success is much better than no one being interested in their security and no one knowing whether it is hard or easy to be a secret builder of malicious clone tokens.

smorgusofborg··on An Honest Look at Urbit
That article goes straight into peer-to-peer and file sharing so it is hardly surprising that most people expect a decentralized platform to exist primarily to eliminate SPOFs, i.e. provide redundant access to data of down peers.
smorgusofborg··on Virtually no one left to vaccinate in Portugal: 98% of those eligible vaccinated
It may be that they feel safe because they are about as safe as before COVID existed. When I have examined the data of countries compared to their vaccination rate the substantially lower death rate has been very clear. Israel's quick Pfizer roll out had additional break through cases, but continued spread primarily cost non-vaccinated lives. For the rest of us we have a different flu season now.
smorgusofborg··on The Fastest Path to the CEO Job, According to a 10-Year Study (2018)
I'm curious how to deal with the social pretenses in hiring? I.e. do you express this view in a developer interview or do you keep it contained to the low end of where you want to be in 5 years being similar to a motivated developer?

I'd also point out that money is in exchange for something. I would much rather be in a low stress job that pays enough than having more money than I have time to use, ulcers and permanent negative health and behavioral factors that will follow me into retirement..

smorgusofborg··on Chromebook demand is plummeting as the pandemic eases
I'm in the same boat on not buying new Chromebooks. I was able to convert one of my old x86 one into a Linux machine by flashing the bios, but converting Arm ones is even less certain.
smorgusofborg··on The Fastest Path to the CEO Job, According to a 10-Year Study (2018)
I have to agree. Level of suck at management is also unrelated to any one quantified linear scale so the mean is the result of a particularly arbitrary personal (or national like GPA with range bias vs 0-20 with other bias) definition of a corresponding numerical ratings so median and mode have fewer degrees of freedom for arbitrary results.

It is also pretty absurd to assume without explanation that a minority who are especially bad at management have even their minority presence in management given that if sucking matters it should correlate with some type of failure that eventually correlates to drop out.

smorgusofborg··on Chromebook demand is plummeting as the pandemic eases
> set for a decade

Not really, the normal support life is 6.5 years from first manufacture, I've seen chrome devices for sale with less than 2 years support remaining.

https://support.google.com/chrome/a/answer/6220366?hl=en

smorgusofborg··on Why Are Fast Food Workers Signing Noncompetes?
If the employee were compelled to quit, unemployment couldn't go after the worker for the lost job, so they would want to go after McDonald's for 2.5 years of unemployment instead of .5 years for every worker they break.
smorgusofborg··on Why Are Fast Food Workers Signing Noncompetes?
It is employment with severe restrictions on job requirements, while not paying someone for providing years of service is indentured servitude.
smorgusofborg··on A coffee shortage is coming, and it could last three years, importers warn
> "We have not seen that type of price peak since 2014," said Suzy Oo, senior industry analyst at IBISWorld.

The drop in 2018 that carried on to 2019 scared me and probably wasn't sustainable. Hopefully a fairer price remains so coffee producing economies can recover.

smorgusofborg··on Sometimes mindlessness is better than mindfulness
One measures oxygen levels by MRI while doing a task before and after the intervention to determine changes to what regions get enlisted for the task.
smorgusofborg··on Operating System Development Tutorials in Rust on the Raspberry Pi
When I did OS development we used MacBooks for x86 development. If a "standard PC" exists the Apple fell far from it, but they have to keep their OS running more than they need to save a buck on the next 10000 units.
smorgusofborg··on Many UK petrol stations run dry amid panic buying
So the expectation is that 5000 visas will be eaten up by EU truckers who occasionally bring their goods to the end destination in the UK? That wouldn't help very much and they would probably not want to issue that kind of multientry visa (on such a small scale) if they want to fix their problem.
smorgusofborg··on I quit – Peak indifference, big tobacco
I wouldn't expect that to stay stable any more than doing the lifetime cost calculations for HIV initially and today. Cancers are increasingly being survived, usually with at least some additional lifelong health care requirements (which pharma will always be looking to expand upon) on top of the costs for a healthy individual.
smorgusofborg··on Database containing personal info of 106M visitors to Thailand exposed online
A new passport number comes with each replacement/renewal so I would suspect this is just security theater and you can upload any sample passport with the text changed. If they are insisting on the same exact passport again they could accept a fax of a random artwork and it would be more secure and just as permanent.
smorgusofborg··on Sinus flush after positive Covid test reduced risks 19 times
That could be, but I also think people given a task by authority are likely to have a placebo response and down play symptoms that could cause the authority to question their compliance.
smorgusofborg··on OCW MIT: 6.006 Intro to Algorithms 2020
Do they all have accurate captions/transcripts? It's kind of an odd situation that if no student in the class has a need for them they wouldn't have to be made but then you can't publish it for a larger audience.
smorgusofborg··on How Inuit parents teach kids to control their anger (2019)
OTOH I think there was a Penn and Teller's Bullshit about anger therapy that claimed therapies designed to harmlessly let out anger actually raised anger levels. Anger and frustration clearly have social phenomenons where they build without any additional rational information.
smorgusofborg··on Remembering When Only Barbarians Drank Milk (2018)
I think this is ignoring Roman and Chinese urban density which pushed them into this difference over generations. Much of the food necessary to feed a city was imported on a scale and timeline similar to global trade today. I don't know anyone who buys foreign fresh milk and butter but cheese is different.
smorgusofborg··on Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?
> myocarditis is being diagnosed and reported in children if not at the hospital?

The vast majority of people who visit a doctor are diagnosed with no hospitalization and the recommended course for most myocarditis cases is not hospitalization. If the recommendation were hospitalization then many more infected young males would be hospitalized based on myocarditis diagnosis.

smorgusofborg··on Sinus flush after positive Covid test reduced risks 19 times
With isotonic solution, I would expect pretty short periods of loss of smell over the 14 days, but your results may vary.
smorgusofborg··on Xiaomi is disabling some of its devices when imported to certain regions
It must be hard to keep a straight face while saying "we don't know why" with this list of countries. Xiaomi is clearly afraid of the US using its sanction stick to cause problems as they did with Huawei.
smorgusofborg··on Protonmail now keeps IP Logs
TheRegister article quotes:

"They therefore sent a requisition (via EUROPOL) to the Swiss company managing the messaging system in order to find out the identity of the creator of the address. ProtonMail responded to this request by providing the IP address and the fingerprint of the browser used by the collective."

It looks like the Swiss police responded to a request that could not be fulfilled (creator's ip) by getting something ~equally good (most recent ip) through asking protonmail to enable IP monitoring and the resulting report shown redacted on TC looks like a normal subpoena response where the data was already available.

This does not really look like the back and forth seen with authorities first trying to request the impossible in a subpoena (i.e. famously from lavabit but also from any cloud provider) but that level of adversarial ~obstruction through precise compliance might not be possible in Swiss law.

smorgusofborg··on Protonmail now keeps IP Logs
In the discussion of their fulfilling the request, the data they provided was described as the IP during account creation. If that was accurate then it is a neat trick that law enforcement knew which accounts would eventually be of interest.
smorgusofborg··on Google’s Answer to Overheated Job Market: Demanding Proof of Rival Offers
That sounds like illegal wage fixing to me. Companies should not be able to disclose this kind of information to each other and twisting an employees arm to consent to such disclosure is questionable. Employees don't get enough information to do similar tactics to maximize their salaries so the end result is keeping salaries artificially low.

I think constant wage fixing has actually backfired for big tech. The savings in pay they have made might be an impressive number but it is very little compared to what they leave on the table whenever they fail at a software eating the world project, and they end up with a lot more competition from companies that can afford to match their compensation despite operating in much smaller markets and having very little profit relatively.

smorgusofborg··on Peter Pan, Existentialist Fairy Tale? (2017)
The fertility rate in the UK cut in half from 1880 to 1920. During this time the general approach to children rearing began to correspond to a much higher level of parental investment in individual children.
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