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smallgovt

1,747 karma · joined November 14, 2016

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smallgovt··on How Corporations Scam Their Shareholders and Screw over Workers
The argument you’re now outlining is not a subset of the arguments you previously listed (and I was referencing).

I agree buybacks create adverse incentives. As I’ve stated elsewhere in this thread, the damages of these adverse incentives are outweighed by the tax advantages buybacks have over dividends.

smallgovt··on How Corporations Scam Their Shareholders and Screw over Workers
> Many companies buy back shares when it doesn't really make sense

Many companies also issue dividends when it doesn’t really make sense.

The overall level of shareholder compensation (dividends + buybacks) has not increased over the last couple decades.

smallgovt··on How Corporations Scam Their Shareholders and Screw over Workers
All of these arguments apply to dividends as well as share buybacks. And, therefore, do not support a shift back to dividends.

If you compare the dividend yield of the s&p500 from 1980 to today, it dropped by around 3%. Based on today’s market cap, that 3% equates to around $900b. In the last year, we’ve had around $700b in share buybacks for s&p 500 companies. These data suggest that the shift to buybacks did not negatively impact liquidity, r&d, or overall ability to maintain employment levels.

smallgovt··on How Corporations Scam Their Shareholders and Screw over Workers
> How Corporations Scam Their Shareholders and Screw over Workers

I don't see how workers are getting screwed. The main charge in the article is that executives take advantage of positive signalling around share buybacks to boost share price prior to selling shares. If this claim is true, the share price should go back down once more material public information is released that suggests a lower valuation. The losers in this scenario are shareholders who purchased in the short period following the buyback. Although some workers may fall into this group, the vast majority do not.

Also, the article implies that companies should go back to issuing dividends over share buybacks. This doesn't make sense. The tax advantage nature of share buybacks far outweighs the ill-gotten gains executives reap from this strategy.

On average, share price increases ~2% following a buyback announcement. So, while execs can 'scam their shareholders' with this scheme, the loss to shareholders is nowhere near the ~10-20% benefit shareholders get by realizing gains as capital gains instead of income.

smallgovt··on Tech firms face growing resentment of parent employees during Covid-19
Yes, but I don't see how that applies to the subject matter at hand. There is no law that says an employer has to provide extra financial support to parents in extenuating circumstances like this.

> As a society, we decide what things are important to us and everyone gets to help support those, like it or not.

If GP doesn't care about supporting parents or future generations (and he is in a position to make this decision), it's certainly his prerogative to not do so.

smallgovt··on Tech firms face growing resentment of parent employees during Covid-19
Huh? You're not allowed to walk into someone's home and steal their stuff because we have something called a legal system that will punish you.

There is nothing in our legal system that compels you to care about future generations -- at least not in the way you're proclaiming.

These childless workers are 100% entitled to their opinions about equitable compensation -- and they're entitled to lobby for these changes as well.

smallgovt··on Professor suspended for saying 那个 nà ge
We don't disagree on your point. I'm just pointing out that the degree of punishment enacted on the professor could be much less severe than most people are imagining.
smallgovt··on Professor suspended for saying 那个 nà ge
I agree with you. My claim is that there's "less reason to be outraged at the Dean".

If the professor was executed for this, for most people, there's reason to go to war.

If the professor was fired, for most people, there's reason to be outraged.

If the professor was voluntarily placed on leave with pay, well, maybe you still find reason to be outraged, but less so than the aforementioned scenarios.

In any case, most people in this thread are assuming the professor was fired, and that's incorrect.

smallgovt··on Professor suspended for saying 那个 nà ge
I think it's important to note that nowhere in the article (nor anywhere else I can find) does it state that the professor was "suspended". Rather, it only says that the professor will "no longer be teaching this class for the remainder of the semester".

I think this is an important distinction because it leaves the door open to the possibility that: 1) the professor voluntarily stepped down 2) the professor will return after the semester is over 3) the professor is being paid during this leave and will suffer no real professional consequences.

In other words, there's a real possibility that the Dean had the following conversation with the professor: "Hey, I know this wasn't intentional on your part, but this is quickly becoming a PR nightmare and I'd like to nip it in the bud. Would you mind stepping down from your post for just this semester until this dies down and I can get a handle on it? This will make everyone's life easier & you'll still get paid anyways."

In this light, there's less reason to be outraged at the Dean.

smallgovt··on Optimizely to be acquired by Episerver
Ah, I hadn't considered that the interviewer was testing the applicant's ability to lie. Interesting, if true.
smallgovt··on Optimizely to be acquired by Episerver
> The Episerver acquisition is indeed a bad exit, and I think I will lose >$100k in stock I exercised

Based on what information? So far, all that's been publicly confirmed is that the sale price was below $600M, which presumably leaves opportunity for your shares to be worth something.

smallgovt··on Tesla with Autopilot hits cop car–driver admits he was watching a movie
> These incidents should be treated as severely as drink driving

Why? Driving distracted with autopilot is at least an order of magnitude less dangerous than drunk driving.

smallgovt··on Uber and Lyft shutdown in California averted as judge grants emergency stay
> (In a May online survey drawing responses from 734 Uber and Lyft drivers nationwide, 71% said they wanted to be independent contractors)

As others are mentioning, the survey was very simplistic and most drivers don't understand the full ramifications of AB5.

That said, I still think the majority of fully-informed drivers would vote against AB5.

Enforcing AB5 will very likely result in: 1) substantial increase in benefits 2) slightly lower base pay 3) half of drivers losing their job 4) scheduled shifts.

My guess is #3 is the biggest issue for most drivers.

smallgovt··on Rideshare operations are being suspended in California
Ultimately, scheduling shifts is going to be both easier to manage and more cost efficient than what you're suggesting. Uber has a good idea of how many drivers they need at any given time. This ideal distribution of supply will never align perfectly with the supply pool's natural scheduling preferences. You can try to use economic incentives to force these two distributions to overlap, or you can just exert control (that you rightfully have over employees) and force your employees to work when you need them.
smallgovt··on Rideshare operations are being suspended in California
Drivers will still take advantage of such a system. Whenever a market is over-supplied, drivers will sign in to collect their free "on-call duty" checks for doing nothing.
smallgovt··on Rideshare operations are being suspended in California
Without scheduled shifts, drivers will purposefully all sign up for the same shift to induce supply overflow. In this situation, drivers can game the flexibility of the system to collect a paycheck while sitting in their cars doing nothing.

Even if drivers don't game the system, there will always be natural imbalance between supply and demand. Surge bonuses can mitigate this imbalance, but scheduling shifts is the more economically efficient way to solve the imbalance problem (hence why they say schedule flexibility will no longer be a feature in a driver employment model).

smallgovt··on Why I believe the US has herd immunity in some states
How is this a 'denialist' perspective? The author is affirming that COVID is real and so widespread that some areas are reaching herd immunity...
smallgovt··on Why I believe the US has herd immunity in some states
The antibody test results for this data set don't seem representative of the population at large. Reason being, if you look at the antibody positivity rate, it consistently drops as time goes on (whereas everything I've read suggests it should increase with time as more ppl have been infected).

My guess is that at the beginning, hospitals were only testing COVID-sick patients, and as time went on testing became more widespread.

smallgovt··on 27% of NYC residents test positive for COVID antibodies, based on 1.46m tests
A link to the underlying data: https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-testing.pa...
smallgovt··on 27% of NYC residents test positive for COVID antibodies, based on 1.46m tests
Based on the 27% statistic, 2.27M NYC residents have been infected with COVID. There are 236K confirmed COVID cases in NYC, so ~10% of total cases were confirmed.
smallgovt··on Why I believe the US has herd immunity in some states
Can you point me to the latest released results? Thanks!
smallgovt··on Why I believe the US has herd immunity in some states
> But we also don't know what antibody/T-cell levels... would = herd immunity.

OK, but wouldn't a random sampling at least provide an answer to what pct of the population was infected at some point? That seems like a great starting point.

smallgovt··on Why I believe the US has herd immunity in some states
That crossed my mind as well, but if this were the case, surely a member of the opposing party would fund such a study. Given that this also hasn't happened, I wonder if there's another reason. Is it not as simple as paying 1K random ppl $100 to come in and take a test?
smallgovt··on Why I believe the US has herd immunity in some states
Isn't this hypothesis pretty easy to validate/falsify?

Just take a random sample of 1K NY residents and test them for antibody/t-cell presence. 1K is plenty to make a statistically significant sample size when you're suggesting the true infection rate is double digits.

Why do we NOT know what the population infection rate is? It seems relatively easy to do.

smallgovt··on Why I believe the US has herd immunity in some states
Interesting that this is flagged. There are almost no strong claims made in the article. Are people not open to a discussion about herd immunity?
smallgovt··on Modeling a Wealth Tax
> The only way to get the 45% number is to say your assets didnt grow in 60 years, which is not realistic.

This is the misunderstanding I'm pointing out. You will end up being 45% less wealthy regardless of whether your assets grow or not. If your assets grow YoY, you will still end up being 45% less wealthy bc your YoY gains are also taxed by the 1% wealth tax.

smallgovt··on Modeling a Wealth Tax
My guess is that you're the one misunderstanding the math here.

At a 1% wealth tax, you will end up being 45% less wealthy in 40 years than you would be without the wealth tax.

There is a 100% cap on what the government can take from you. And, with a 1% wealth tax, they are taking 45% of it (spread over 40 years).

Put another way, the 1% wealth tax is similar to a 45% capital gains tax (where the cap is also 100%). Capital gains is just more front-loaded (paid upon liquidation) whereas wealth tax is paid over time.

smallgovt··on Raise Less Money
I agree with that piece of the article. That is, we should make efficient use of our time and resources. I just don't think it follows that you should raise less money.

Raising more money (especially on non-onerous terms, as suggested in the article) grants you additional optionality down the road (when shit inevitably hits the fan). This sort of optionality is a great way to mitigate risk in what is already a very risky endeavor.

At the end of the day, there's nothing stopping you from being just as efficient with your time/capital. If you want, just set aside that extra money as a safety net, and if you don't want to use it, close shop and return it to your investors.

smallgovt··on Almost one-third of Florida children tested are positive for the coronavirus
I really don’t understand why the govt isn’t doing regular testing of a random sample of the population.

All it takes is ~500 tests in each state per week to get a significant sample size. And, it would definitively answer what the population infection rate is, and how it’s trending.

smallgovt··on Moderna says COVID vaccine trial produced robust immune response in all patients
Tl dr; Moderna vaccine exits Phase 1 trials successfully.

"Clinical development is a three-phase process. During Phase I, small groups of people receive the trial vaccine. In Phase II, the clinical study is expanded and vaccine is given to people who have characteristics (such as age and physical health) similar to those for whom the new vaccine is intended. In Phase III, the vaccine is given to thousands of people and tested for efficacy and safety."

">30% of drugs entering phase II studies fail to progress, and >58% of drugs entering phase III studies go on to fail"

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