52 karma · joined December 13, 2013
Furthermore, why do you think the FED should've raised raters earlier? Supporting the stock market is not their mandate and it is thus not directly relevant whether and how long has the current bull market lasted. A big market crash just a few years after 2008 (and 2011) would've certainly had a dampening effect on recovery so they might have felt justified in increasing the money supply. Inflation is running low, economic growth and labor markets were very weak for many years after the 2008 crash. They had pretty good reasons to be supportive.
Open sourcing something like Linux works very well _precisely_ because it has a very large audience and is (relatively) approachable by hobbyists too.
On the other hand, aerospace engineering and software is narrowly specialized with a (relatively) small group of experts and code used in commercial/military aircraft is anything but approachable to hobbyists.
Then there is the fact that unit testing this kind of code requires engineering knowledge of the specific hardware involved (e.g. not just any jet engine, but one very specific model). Finally, let us not even mention the huge pink elephant in the room, namely that the absolute and vast majority of "hackers" does not have access to jet engines used in commercial (or military) airplanes and even fewer have the ability to conduct test flights.
China is doing the western policy of growth fuelled by debt. Betting on China is tantamount to betting on unfettered money printing shrouded in a veil of corruption and secrecy. Debt financed by production that is consumed by the west. A bet on China is a bet on the US. Let's not forget the massive exposure to western debt and assets. It's as simple as that.
To make things a touch more spicy, China also has an opaque shadow banking system that was tiptoeing around a meltdown just last year.
China is not doing anything clever, they are just really adept at kicking the can down the road.
The future of China is only as bright as the future of US is I'm afraid. To think that China can somehow survive if the western countries collapse or dwindle away is folly. There are no independent players. A deleveraging that is big enough to dismantle Europe or the US will most likely cause a global collapse. It's impossible to predict what will happen if that hits China. How strong is the central government? To what end are they willing to go to preserve their hold on power? Tianamnen Square 2020?
The "invest in China for ridiculous returns" ship has sailed long ago. If anything, I'd be looking at taking profit and hedging all remaining exposure to China with urgency.