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sleavey

2,716 karma · joined March 5, 2016

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sleavey··on OpenRA: Red Alert, Command and Conquer, Dune 2000, Rebuilt for the Modern Era
Wow, there's a blast from the past. I think the full phrase was "WARNING! Military software detected. Top secret clearance required."
sleavey··on 20 years after 9/11: Will we ever stop taking our shoes off at airports?
Well said. As for a good place to discuss this stuff, my view is that, to misappropriate the Churchill quote, HN is the worst place I've found for debating COVID matters except for all the other places I've found. At least most people here, being predominantly from scientific and engineering backgrounds, are capable of and willing to remove emotion from debate and assess the biases inherent in arguments on both sides.
sleavey··on 20 years after 9/11: Will we ever stop taking our shoes off at airports?
> I've read far too much casual acceptance of the deaths of older people on HN, as if this ~15% of the population [in the US at least] are freely expendable.

I don't think most people on HN implying such things mean to say old people are freely expendable, but rather that they should not be saved at _all cost_. Our non-pharmaceutical interventions have a cost associated with them too, so we have to strike a balance that's acceptable. The debate to me is ultimately over where the line is. It's not helped that the true costs of lockdowns etc. (or indeed the true cost of not locking down) are not actually all that clear. One consequence is that debates over policies such as these have happened without reliable figures on both sides, and have therefore descended into unconstructive emotional arguments.

sleavey··on 20 years after 9/11: Will we ever stop taking our shoes off at airports?
> In your opinion, how important are the lives of people aged 65 and older?

I think you intended that as a rhetorical question but I want to point out that in the UK the NHS has calculated the "worth" of a single quality-adjusted life year. If a treatment gives less quality-adjusted extra life years than it costs, it isn't administered. In 2014 it was £20-60k [1]. This shows the NHS definitely does consider older peoples' lives worth less than younger peoples', on average.

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/health-28983924

sleavey··on Larry Page: “I think we should look into acquiring YouTube” (2005)
> "I think we should talk to them, if nothing else to make it more expensive for Yahoo."

Love this.

Another thing: Jeff Huber thought that having 2.5 Google engineers would be enough to outcompete YouTube at the time. Given that they eventually acquired YouTube for over $1B, was that essentially paying for their ~2 best engineers?

sleavey··on Record €225m fine for WhatsApp Ireland over data protection breaches
I am. But I soon want to reinstall my phone's operating system. If I reinstall WhatsApp I'm sure they will force me to accept the terms at that point.
sleavey··on Windows 11 available on October 5
> - Internet connection (Windows 11 Home edition)

Does this signal the end of Microsoft account-less logins?

sleavey··on Cat Automatic Sprayer
Far less fun though! I regularly spend at least as much if not more doing some project myself instead of buying an off-the-shelf solution. I do it because I enjoy it, can make it work exactly the way I want it to, and don't then suffer from potential vendor lock-in.
sleavey··on Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine
The Murderer at the Door hypothetical is commonly mentioned in response to Kant, but I don't think this serves as reason to reject the overall thesis. Kant also said that there is no right for someone to obtain information from another against their will. You don't need to tell someone who comes to your house looking for someone they plan to harm that they are there. You simply tell them they have no right to know who is in your house, and that they should bugger off! In the context of the current discussion, the government doesn't have the moral duty to reply to requests for classified information, they simply say they cannot provide classified information. If the public are unsatisfied with that answer, they need to vote them out.

Now I understand that, stretched to extremes, Kant's theory gets rather tricky to defend, such as a hypothetical situation of a Nazi coming to your house to ask if you are harbouring Jews he plans to kill. But Kant and others since have argued ways to deal with such situations too, though I must admit I haven't studied their arguments in detail and wouldn't do them justice to try to paraphrase. But I don't think we're really dealing with such a high stakes situation in the context of this discussion, so I think "lower order" arguments in favour of Kant (like mine) suffice. This is something I expect you'll disagree with given your response.

Coming back to the original context of governments lying to people to get them to have vaccines: I think it's possible to do huge damage to public trust in government and science if lies are told for the (always subjective) "greater good", even if the immediate outcome is positive. Governments should understand Kant.

P.S. thanks for your level headed response, it's refreshing and rare to see in threads that discuss COVID.

P.P.S. sometimes it needs to be said explicitly: I am open to changing my views on this if I hear a convincing argument.

sleavey··on Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine
I don't want to be lied to in any form by my government. I believe they can always govern by telling the truth, and if they did so they would find themselves commanding more respect from the people.

I suggest, if you are unfamiliar with his work, that you read up on Kant's categorical imperative, in particular his absolute prohibition against lying. He argues that lying, even noble lying, is bad because it dehumanises the ones being lied to. If we stop treating each other as humans with rights, needs and desires, we will find ourselves in a very bad place - history has shown us that.

sleavey··on How does Google Authenticator work?
I found this part interesting:

> Notice that when the key is, say, 40 bytes long, it’s padded with zeros to make it 64 bytes long. So the actual entropy of that key is equivalent to the 40-byte long key. But if the key is longer than 64 bytes, it’s effectively being shortened to 20 bytes. So its entropy is lower. If you want to maximize the complexity of the key, and you’re the one choosing the key, go for something around, but never more than, 64 bytes.

Perhaps that's why some sites have a maximum character limit for passwords. (Although I suspect many are just doing it wrong.)

sleavey··on Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine
Meta-reply: at time of writing your comment is grey enough to be on -2, yet nothing you say is trolling or unhelpful. In fact, your comment contains merely two questions and a supposition. I've seen this on HN particularly for COVID related topics and I don't think it's at all helpful. I reckon very few on here are outright anti-vaxxers in the traditional sense of the term (e.g. given to those implying a link between MMR and autism, etc.) yet these days anyone asking questions that may portray, perhaps merely indirectly, some SARS-CoV-2 prophylactics/treatments in a bad light are downvoted. It's not good for curiosity and doesn't help us collectively get to the truth on matters and I think we can do better as a community.
sleavey··on Visualizing observed deaths using polar coordinates
Even comparing excess deaths can be misleading, because you're comparing deaths during lockdown to deaths in previous years not in lockdown. In other words, you're not isolating a single variable (SARS-CoV-2 pandemic vs no pandemic) but rather multiple (pandemic plus non pharmaceutical interventions vs no pandemic).
sleavey··on Why are hyperlinks blue?
Another curiosity related to this one is why <h5> and <h6> have smaller default font sizes than <p>, given that they are headers and should therefore "head" a section of text [1].

[1] https://stackoverflow.com/questions/55696808/why-do-h5-and-h...

sleavey··on Goodbye climate deniers, hello climate bullshitters
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/6609120

We were a bunch of physicists having fun. The impact of using just laptops for demand side response will be negligible but the idea is that all battery equipped, mains connected devices are capable of responding to grid supply/demand changes by adding or removing load only needing simple electronics (we used an Arduino Uno).

sleavey··on Goodbye climate deniers, hello climate bullshitters
I actually published a paper on your last point many years ago. To me it's obvious that we need to use electric car batteries as storage for the grid. The infrastructure is already there. The software in the car should allow the user to specify their preference for how full to keep the battery at all times, and when they next plan to drive far, and the car can decide how it gets its battery charge to the required level in the available time. Adding in price incentives to use electricity when it's cheapest (when there's most supply vs demand) makes it even more attractive.
sleavey··on Goodbye climate deniers, hello climate bullshitters
That's a good question, I don't know the answer to that. One thing to include though is transmission loss to get the electricity to the place it's needed. And at the same time of course include the energy used to get petrol to a gas guzzling car. In other words, the comparison needs to be fair, and that doesn't sound like an easy analysis. I'd be interested to hear from anyone that knows more about this.
sleavey··on Goodbye climate deniers, hello climate bullshitters
I enjoyed hearing electric cars called "external combustion engines" given that in most countries (at least mine) the electricity used to charge the car still mostly comes from fossil fuel. In such cases all we're doing is adding an extra lossy conversion between chemical and kinetic energy, potentially making it worse. Yet people buy such cars and feel great about themselves. I am reminded of the South Park episode where a cloud of smog across the town is replaced by a cloud of smug.

Why are we incentivising electric cars at purchase rather than incentivising the use of green energy to charge them?

(Edited to add "potentially" before "making it worse" given a comment below)

sleavey··on Joe Rogan, confined to Spotify, is losing influence
> the unvaccinated are screwing over the rest of us who are doing the right thing.

I'm curious as to what evidence you base that assertion on. Respectfully, can you explain your position there?

sleavey··on Joe Rogan, confined to Spotify, is losing influence
> He recently pointed to a 5 year old paper to suggest that vaccinations are bad because they allow more virulent strains to come about.

Papers from the 1900s are still our best description of some physical phenomena. A paper's age, taken on its own, has nothing to do with truth or untruth.

sleavey··on EU to make Bitcoin traceable, ban anonymous crypto wallets
This is the correct answer. Bitcoin is the hardest money ever invented, at least while SHA256 stays secure. History has shown us that people move their savings from softer to harder stores of value as they become available, eventually making softer forms worthless as a currency (seashells, stones, silver, etc.). Currently we see gold as the hardest form of money but Bitcoin has zero supply elasticity which ensures an increasing stock to flow ratio over time, making it harder. Bitcoin is also in most, arguably all, respects better than gold as a store of value, and will, if it isn't replaced by something better or if a flaw isn't discovered that destroys its advantages over gold, make gold worthless as a store of value in the long run.
sleavey··on PAM Duress – Alternate passwords for panic situations
As I alluded to in my original comment, you might not pick up on a transient error like an I/O error during testing. This is exactly the sort of thing a sensible default setting in the program should cover.
sleavey··on The Coronavirus Is Here Forever
Well, apparently you won't read this but thanks nonetheless for engaging with the arguments from the supposed "other side" further than most people do. I still respectfully disagree, and hope you find time to reexamine the claims being made here and elsewhere. Rejecting claims out of hand is not the way we get out of this mess.
sleavey··on The Coronavirus Is Here Forever
Thanks for the links, I will take a proper look later. However, I have to repeat my point about scientific convergence because your links, in contrast to what you said earlier, demonstrates it is yet to happen. Popp et al. acknowledges the presence of the meta-analysis I linked above, and that it has a different conclusion to itself. It acknowledges that the approaches were broadly different, and that the criteria for inclusion of various studies in the meta-analyses were different. Future papers are going to have to continue to refine and agree on biases in individual studies that rule them in or out of subsequent meta-analysis.

Or, to put it more succinctly, science has not yet converged.

Yet, COVID is killing people, so we can't wait for science to converge before doing something about it. It therefore makes most sense to use educated guesses and conduct evidence based medicine with appropriate weighing of risks versus rewards. What ivermectin has going for it is that it is an extremely safe drug with a long history of use as an antiviral. Repurposing existing drugs is also far easier (and quicker) to get approval for than new vaccines. Even if the papers you linked are eventually proved right, and ivermectin is not beneficial, the evidence from ivermectin's use over 40 years suggests that it does very little harm - deaths caused by ivermectin intervention are essentially in the noise. What's more, it's out of patent so we're not paying $20-40 a pop like we are with the vaccines. It's got so much going for it that any level headed risk versus reward calculation should include it in the arsenal to fight against COVID.

sleavey··on The Coronavirus Is Here Forever
You are very welcome :-)
sleavey··on The Coronavirus Is Here Forever
That was the session opener for the conference, setting the stage. The conference itself (linked from the channel page) has presentations from scientists backing up the claims he makes there.

The first lecture in the session for example is from Dr Clare Craig, an epidemiologist, discussing how the virus actually spreads, and presents evidence for the remark you highlighted about social distancing and quarantine [1].

As I said in other comments here, rejecting arguments based on (lack of) credentials is not constructive. I encourage everyone to open their mind and engage with what people have to say. You can always disagree with them and you're then at least more familiar with the arguments of the other side. I am always trying to find a way to justify the behaviour of governments with regards to COVID-19 - it would sure as heck make my life easier right now to fall in line - and I do this by reading and hearing the arguments in favour of restrictions and mandates from all corners.

[1] https://youtube.com/watch?v=veSfwMZhZRA

sleavey··on The Coronavirus Is Here Forever
You may be referring to Elgazzar et al. as discussed here [1]. That was not a meta-analysis, it was just a single study; the paper I linked was a meta-analysis of many such studies. The withdrawn paper was included in the paper I linked above, but it's been shown that removing its results from the meta-analysis does not change the conclusion (i.e. that ivermectin is likely an effective treatment and prophylactic against COVID-19). Instead it just changes the efficacy and error bars slightly. See e.g. this interview with evidence based medicine researcher Tess Lawrie [2] - they actually recompute the values during the interview using the software used in the study.

For the record, it's worth pointing out that the reasons for withdrawal are disputed by the authors. I have not looked closely at the arguments for and against so can't comment.

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jul/16/huge-study-s...

[2] https://odysee.com/@DarkHorsePodcastClips:b/ivermectin-meta-...

sleavey··on The Coronavirus Is Here Forever
It's entirely unconstructive to make comments like yours without sharing your sources. As I said above, there is this toxic attitude exhibited by many where there is an assumption that those who disagree with you are idiots and you need not waste time explaining your arguments. This gets us nowhere. For what it's worth, take a look at the results discussed here [1] which show that those refusing vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 are both the least and most academically qualified. Not everyone on that "side" is an idiot, and you may not have read everything they have (and nor might they have read everything you have).

[1] https://unherd.com/thepost/the-most-vaccine-hesitant-educati...

sleavey··on The Coronavirus Is Here Forever
The trouble with arguments like that are that they rely entirely on faith in the person stating them.

As with all science, it's not the volume of studies one way or the other, it's the quality. Consensus on a topic only comes over time, especially for contentious issues with public interest. The good thing about science is that it more or less always converges on the truth over time, but some are not willing to wait and make snap decisions on policy without stating that it's not backed by scientific consensus.

sleavey··on The Coronavirus Is Here Forever
Thanks, I respect your viewpoint; indeed I can relate to it having held that view for a long time too up until a few months ago when I started to ask trusted colleagues for their thoughts and started to read beyond the headlines. I now differ from you in that I believe governments are a lot less on top of the science than we thought, and seem to misunderstand its purpose, which to me as a scientist is a very upsetting and uncomfortable position to find myself living under. This video [1] makes in my view a good attempt at trying to explain how this all got the way it did, without invoking conspiracy. Worth a watch for anyone with an open mind. Even if you disagree with its conclusions, it's good to understand the arguments of the other side, we're not all loonies.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31X-EzNuOWk

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