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skmurphy

5,083 karma · joined February 27, 2007

http://www.twitter.com/skmurphy for "Quotes for Entrepreneurs"

http://www.bootstrappersbreakfast.com/ You buy your own breakfast and take part in a serious conversation with other bootstrapping entrepreneurs.

http://www.skmurphy.com/blog/

http://www.linkedin.com/in/skmurphy

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skmurphy··on Limits of Smart: Molecules and Chaos
He ends with a good list of five key barriers 1. Many problems require new fundamental knowledge based on new physical measurements and experiments.

2. Many problems require situational knowledge to create and maintain complex infrastructure.

3. Moving molecules around

4. Feedback loops

5. Chaos and complexity make many phenomena hard to simulate.

skmurphy··on Roundup of Events for Bootstrappers in April 2025
Roundup lists online events for bootstrappers including Bootstrappers Breakfast and Lean Culture.

There are also in-person Bootstrapper Breakfast meetings in Las Vegas, San Francisco, and Silicon Valley.

These events are for “entrepreneurs who eat problems for breakfast.”®

skmurphy··on I Quit Google Search for AI–and I'm Not Going Back
For "search engine" tasks I have switched to Kagi.com and find it more useful than Google's results. I am not using it for shopping but to find original content that offers multiple perspectives on topics I am researching. I find Perplexity helpful when I am trying to get a basic overview because it provides links to substantiate the content. Your mileage may vary.
skmurphy··on An Introduction to Forensic Metascience
Written by James Heathers of Linneaus Univ. Released February 14, 2025

Abstract: ‘Forensic metascience’ involves using digital tools, statistical observations or human faculties to assess the consistency of empirical features within scientific statements. Usually, those statements are contained within formal scientific papers.

A forensic metascientific analysis of a paper is the presentation of one or more observations made about features within that paper. These can be numerical, visual, or textual / semantic features.

Forensic metascientific analysis is designed to modify trust by evaluating research consistency. It is not designed to ‘find fraud’. While this may happen, it is not the sole focus of forensic metascience as a research area and practice, it is simply the loudest consequence.

skmurphy··on The Shape of Firms to Come
8 key values

    Intelligence Amplification/Augmentation not Artificial Intelligence (IA not AI)
    Human Touch at Scale: Enable Customer Intimacy not an Instrumentality
    Tap Expertise Like Electricity: Rely on Recon Pull Over Centralized Command
    Focus on Learning and Teaching: View Customer Requests as Opportunities Not Costs
    Play a Long Game: Focus on Longer Term Possibilities Over Short Term Gains
    Play a Fast Game: Act on Good Enough Now Don’t Wait for Perfection or Certainty
    Embrace the Possibility of Failure to Prevent it, the Reality of Failure to Learn from It
    Act Entrepreneurially and Foster Ecosystems to Create More Value Than You Capture
skmurphy··on How 'Careless People' is becoming a bigger problem for Meta
these are paragraph 14 and 15 of 16; I think this is called "burying the lede."

I was surprised to see that Facebook cofounder Dustin Moskovitz, who has historically shied away from openly criticizing the company that made him a billionaire, endorses the book. Brooke Oberwetter, a former Facebook policy manager whose time at the company overlapped with the period Wynn-Williams writes about, also recommends it.

“I can’t fact check the whole book (and neither can anyone else), but I can say that the meetings and events I was a part of that are recounted in the book (and things that were relayed to me by others contemporaneously) are accurately represented,” she writes on LinkedIn. “Maybe more importantly, the vibe she captured is spot on. It was just all so juvenile.”

skmurphy··on Ask HN: EM to Director
In many companies the director-level promotion requires agreement from other directors in other departments. Not every director in the company but directors from other groups or organizations you will interact with. It's different from the promotion to manager or senior manager which normally only involves review by managers or directors within one silo.

The jump to director is by no means driven just by experience or tenure and may require skills or expertise you have not demonstrated. It may be time to have a career conversation with your VP.

skmurphy··on The Era of Solopreneurs Is Here
How do you determine either what features to build or the next product to develop?

I understand you are focused freemium as a goto market strategy with no dedicated sales or marketing team members.

What tools are you displacing (e.g. Excel)?

skmurphy··on Roundup of Events for Bootstrappers in March 2025
Roundup lists online events for bootstrappers including Bootstrappers Breakfast and Lean Culture.

There are also in-person Bootstrapper Breakfast meetings in Las Vegas, San Francisco, and Silicon Valley.

These events are for “entrepreneurs who eat problems for breakfast.”®

skmurphy··on GLP-1 drugs: An economic disruptor? (2024)
The most significant takeaway for me from this analysis was that many businesses were aligned with helping people become or remain obese. Where do the opportunities flow to now that people can apply their disposable income to items beyond food and alcohol? Something similar happened during the "low carb" shift when bakery goods sales decreased, but people shifted to high protein (and perhaps high fat) food away from high carb. But it was still food. This feels a little different.
skmurphy··on Scaling Laws: O1 Pro Architecture, Reasoning Training Infrastructure, "Failures"
This is from Dec-11-2025 but offers some context on recent announcements by DeepSeek team. Excerpts from opening section

"There has been an increasing amount of fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) regarding AI Scaling laws. A cavalcade of part-time AI industry prognosticators have latched on to any bearish narrative they can find, declaring the end of scaling laws that have driven the rapid improvement in Large Language Model (LLM) capabilities in the last few years."

"The reality is that there are more dimensions for scaling beyond simply focusing on pre-training, which has been the sole focus of most of the part-time prognosticators. OpenAI’s o1 release has proved the utility and potential of reasoning models, opening a new unexplored dimension for scaling. This is not the only technique, however, that delivers meaningful improvements in model performance as compute is scaled up. Other areas that deliver model improvements with more compute include Synthetic Data Generation, Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), Functional Verifiers, and other training infrastructure for reasoning. The sands of scaling are still shifting and evolving, and, with it, the entire AI development process has continued to accelerate. "

skmurphy··on Models in the Policy Process: Public Decision Making in the Computer Era (1976) [pdf]
A thoughtful exploration of impact of analytic and simulation models on the formulation of regulation and public policy.

Review at https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P6083.html

Related explorations:

David Gelernter's "Mirror Worlds" (1993) https://www.amazon.com/Mirror-Worlds-Software-Universe-Shoeb...

Guidelines for policy modellers – 30 years on: New tricks or old dogs? (1971) https://mssanz.org.au/modsim2011/G6/syme.pdf

Group model building: problem structuring, policy simulation and decision support https://repository.ubn.ru.nl/bitstream/handle/2066/46184/461...

skmurphy··on Remarks to Software Forum Dinner Meeting (1997)
Another good perspective on the early days of PC Software is "Software People" (1985) https://www.amazon.com/Software-People-Insiders-Personal-Com... by Doug Carlston who was the founder of Broderbund Software.
skmurphy··on Remarks to Software Forum Dinner Meeting (1997)
I heard Ken Hess give this talk at the Software Development Forum back in 1997. He offered some practical insights and inspiring advice for bootstrappers. This was a great talk. Key takeaways:

+ Domain / industry expertise is a key differentiator.

+ Solve a single known problem when launching: be 10X better than current alternatives.

+ Stay focused: continue to ask, "is the task I am working on essential?"

skmurphy··on Roundup of Events for Bootstrappers in January 2025
Roundup lists online events for bootstrappers including Bootstrappers Breakfast and Lean Culture.

There are also in-person Bootstrapper Breakfast meetings in Las Vegas, San Francisco, and Silicon Valley.

These events are for “entrepreneurs who eat problems for breakfast.”®

skmurphy··on What's happening with founders over 40?
It's one data point, here is another perspective that says that depending upon the field of endeavor, people can become more proficient with age. "Old Masters and Young Geniuses" https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w8368/w8368...
skmurphy··on Roundup of Events for Bootstrappers in December 2024
Roundup lists online events for bootstrappers including Bootstrappers Breakfast and Lean Culture.

There are also in-person Bootstrapper Breakfast meetings in Las Vegas, San Francisco, and Silicon Valley.

These events are for “entrepreneurs who eat problems for breakfast.”®

skmurphy··on Large Chainsaw Model
Conclusion: most of us don't need AI in the same way most of us don't need a chainsaw.

"We’re all mostly just regular people interacting with other regular people, trying to go about our business and get through our days. Nobody’s asking us to index and catalog entire libraries of information. Nobody really cares if we reuse a stock photo that somebody else might have used somewhere else at some point. We’re not so busy that we need everything predigested before it’s presented to us. We’re still clever enough to work our way through unfamiliar problems. Some of us, I would have to think, still possess the ability and the desire to produce some sort of output in our chosen medium without relinquishing creative control to AI."

skmurphy··on Goodhart’s law isn’t as useful as you might think (2023)
I agree it's really about effective delegation, it acknowledges the risks that Goodhart warns about and suggests how to manage if not avoid them.
skmurphy··on Goodhart’s law isn’t as useful as you might think (2023)
I agree that reality is complex, but I worry you are conflating the challenges of running an Amazon-scale business with running the smaller businesses that most of the entrepreneurs on HN will need to manage. I thought Roger offered a more practical approach in about 10% of the words that you took. I am sorry if I have offended you; I was trying to save the entrepreneurs on HN time.

As to Jack Stack's book, I think the genius of his approach is communicating simple decision rules to the folks on the front line instead of trying to establish a complex model at the executive level that can become more removed from day-to-day realities. In my experience, which involves working in a variety of roles in startups and multi-billion dollar businesses over the better part of five decades, simple rules updated based on your best judgment risk "extinction by instinct" but outperform the "analysis paralysis" that comes from trying to develop overly complex models.

Reasonable men may differ.

skmurphy··on Goodhart's law isn't as useful as you might think (2023)
It looks like any other decision record where you set a date to evaluate the impact of a policy or course of action and make sure it's working out the way that you had anticipated.
skmurphy··on Goodhart’s law isn’t as useful as you might think (2023)
I am not "Roger," but I can recognize someone who has long and practical experience with managing metrics and KPIs and their interaction with process improvement. Instead of an "expiration date" I would encourage you to define a "re-evaluation date" that allows enough time to judge the impact and efficacy of the metrics proposed and make course corrections as needed (each with its own review dates).

One good book on the positive impact of a metric that everyone on a team or organization understands is "The Great Game of Business" by Jack Stack https://www.amazon.com/Great-Game-Business-Expanded-Updated-... I reviewed it at https://www.skmurphy.com/blog/2010/03/19/the-business-is-eve...

Here is a quote to give you a flavor of his philosophy:

"A business should be run like an aquarium, where everybody can see what's going on--what's going in, what's moving around, what's coming out. That's the only way to make sure people understand what you're doing, and why, and have some input into deciding where you are going. Then, when the unexpected happens, they know how to react and react quickly. "

Jack Stack in "Great Game of Business."

skmurphy··on Roundup of Events for Bootstrappers in November 2024
Roundup lists online events for bootstrappers including Bootstrappers Breakfast and Lean Culture.

There are also in-person Bootstrapper Breakfast meetings in Las Vegas, San Francisco, and Silicon Valley.

These events are for “entrepreneurs who eat problems for breakfast.”®

skmurphy··on Goodhart’s law isn’t as useful as you might think (2023)
There is a very good essay in the first comment by "Roger" dated Jan-2023, reproduced below. Skip the primary essay and work from this:

"I really appreciated this piece, as designing good metrics is a problem I think about in my day job a lot. My approach to thinking about this is similar in a lot of ways, but my thought process for getting there is different enough that I wanted to throw it out there as food for thought.

One school of thought 9https://www.simplilearn.com/tutorials/itil-tutorial/measurem...) I have trained in is that metrics are useful to people in 4 ways:

    1. Direct activities to achieve goals
    2. Intervene in trends that are having negative impacts
    3. Justify that a particular course of action is warranted
    4. Validate that a decision that was made was warranted
My interpretation of Goodhart’s Law has always centered more around duration of metrics for these purposes. The chief warning is that regardless of the metric used, sooner or later it will become useless as a decision aid. I often work with people who think about metrics as a “do it right the first time, so you won’t have to ever worry about it again”. This is the wrong mentality, and Goodhart’s Law is a useful way to reach many folks with this mindset.

The implication is that the goal is not to find the “right” metrics, but to instead find the most useful metrics to support the decisions that are most critical at the moment. After all, once you pick a metric, 1 of 3 things will happen:

    1. The metric will improve until it reaches a point where you are not improving it anymore, at which point it provides no more new information.
    2. The metric doesn’t improve at all, which means you’ve picked something you aren’t capable of influencing and is therefore useless.
    3. The metric gets worse, which means there is feedback that swamps whatever you are doing to improve it.
Thus, if we are using metrics to improve decision making, we’re always going to need to replace metrics with new ones relevant to our goals. If we are going to have to do that anyway, we might as well be regularly assessing our metrics for ones that serve our purposes more effectively. Thus, a regular cadence of reviewing the metrics used, deprecating ones that are no longer useful, and introducing new metrics that are relevant to the decisions now at hand, is crucial for ongoing success.

One other important point to make is that for many people, the purpose of metrics is not to make things better. It is instead to show that they are doing a good job and that to persuade others to do what they want. Metrics that show this are useful, and those that don’t are not. In this case, of course, a metric may indeed be useful “forever” if it serves these ends. The implication is that some level of psychological safety is needed for metric use to be more aligned with supporting the mission and less aligned with making people look good."

skmurphy··on Why World War WordPress Will End with a Zombie Fork
"WP Engine would want to make sure that it's customers are well taken care of and have a solid web hosting experience."

This is certainly one of their goals, if only to prevent or reduce churn.

But WP Engine is now owned by Silver Lake, a private equity firm, they no doubt have aggressive growth and profitability targets. Anything that injects confusion into their branding or increases costs is counter to their goals

The real question is the 8% "contribution" that WP is asking for cheaper than other alternatives. The lawsuits are cheaper if they win, but a dead loss if they don't.

skmurphy··on Response to WP Engine’s Lawsuit
I did not say that what WordPress was doing was "fair" I was trying to explain how their actions can make sense from their side of the table.

As to 30% being "fair" it's a fee structure that is known in advance, you can plan accordingly. I try to deal with the world as it is, not how I would like it to be.

skmurphy··on Response to WP Engine’s Lawsuit
Reasonable people may differ. We have very different perspectives on the likely evolution of the current situation. I believe Matt will remain CEO and a year from now, the voluntary departure buyouts from WordPress will be viewed in the same way that 37 Signals weathered the buyout departures of some of their staff. See contemporaneous report at https://techcrunch.com/2021/04/30/basecamp-employees-quit-ce...

Firms that dominate markets enjoy tremendous inertia in customer choice and can take a long time to die--if, in fact, WordPress is dying. The longer-term perspective on what Silver Lake has been doing to profit from open source efforts by Word Press may reach a very different conclusion about Matt's actions than your assessment.

skmurphy··on Response to WP Engine’s Lawsuit
We have been using and building WordPress sites since 2006. I have no experience with WP Engine but I bear them no ill will. I think the "court of public opinion" is very difficult to assess and dominant players can take a very very long time to die.

Matt may need to step down if your assessment is correct but that's distinct from what happens to Word Press as a platform.

My sense is that the Word Press negotiating position is stronger and WP Engine will either have to fork or make a much larger contribution. But I may be wrong. If that does not happen then I believe that the private equity players will do a lot more damage to open source communities because a "harvesting paradigm" will continue.

skmurphy··on Response to WP Engine’s Lawsuit
The lawyer they've hired is a very serious guy who is concerned about his long term reputation. It's unlikely he would hostage his fortune to someone who was a "pissed off-preteen." Reasonable people may differ but I don't believe you have correctly assessed the players and the sum of forces at work in this situation.
skmurphy··on Response to WP Engine’s Lawsuit
If 5-10% leave and WP Engine decides it's better to pay a royalty rather than fork that probably works out well enough. For context see https://www.theregister.com/2024/10/02/automattic_wp_engine_...

"In an email, Bruce Perens, one of the founders of the open source movement who drafted the original Open Source Definition, told The Register, "Let's be clear about WP Engine: It's built on WordPress. There would be no business without WordPress. And it's a large business with big revenue, operated as if it's funded by private equity."

"Private equity always demands big returns, regardless of the harm they do to the business. One of my customers has been completely destroyed by them – they are still operating but on such thin resources that they can't dedicate the time of one engineer to work with me on an open source compliance review, even if I do it for free.

"So, WP Engine is in that situation, and has to increase returns to the investors. What do they do? Cut any voluntary expense, which includes returning any value to the creators of WordPress. I'm told that WordPress asked for eight percent of revenue, which sounds fair to me considering that it's the basis of WP Engine's business.

"But because it's an open source project, WordPress can ask but can't demand that money, so they have to turn to hostile enforcement of their trademark and denying access to their updates."

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