sibmike

Just 20 minutes one way adds up to 20 working days per year. That's 4 weeks of unpaid labor!

People are unhappy about extra money spent on Air Conditioning or an extra office chair but the most are happy to carry the opportunity cost of commute. :(

Sociopaths can pass this "trustworthiness" test at any time of the day even if they are wasted. More likely, they run the test on you.

I am constantly puzzled by people saying that AI is overhyped and fresh grads won't have enough jobs for them. Almost every real life industry: retail, logistics, construction, farming, heavy industries, mining, medicine have just recently started to try AI. The amount of manual and suboptimal tasks that have to be automated and optimized is enormous. I am pretty sure there is more the enough work for applied DSs with domain knowledge in mentioned industries.

The most recent example has been supply failure detection in sales timeseries data with intermittent demand. Ended up using approach described in The Longest Run of Heads by Mark F. Schilling, which is outstandingly well written stats paper and a pleasure to read.

Western philosophy starting from Ancient Greeks has offered a variety of coherent life philosophies that both help with untouched wounding and ego-striving. The books provide cheap and accessible salvation which is just not in demand by most people and it is quite sad.

Given that a handful of names occupy Gold places in kaggle competitions, I would not call it luck. Given how hard it is to stay at the top on private set, I would not call it luck.

The winning models are hardly ever used in production, but the set of skills needed to get a gold is.

Young have the freedom to risk, so they do. The most fail, but some survive. Older have less freedom, so fewer risk. Not as many fail, so some survive. We observe some young and some older founders who have survived. What does it tell us? Not much.

I'd like to add that the data comes from experiments, which are simplified versions of real life problems. Oftentimes, "irrational" behavior depends on the way simplification is made and have no chances to generalise outside the laboratory, because in real life signal is more complex and informative. Yet a paper will be published stating "people behave irrationally". (in the lab with given peculiar instructions)

Folks, thanks for bringing it up. I am running too. These 22 minutes every other day have helped me to stay cheerful for the last 3 years. Rarely, my knees give me a hard time, but aching knees are fine in comparison to being toxic to myself and to people I love due to overload. So if you feel like you've had it, just try to run; literally.

The processes help coordination and accountability; if they may be improved, the team will improve. Will it become an ok one? It may.

Async standups are great even for on-site teams. First, people only spend half a minute to post it; manager needs half a minute to read it to know whats going on. After it is posted, everyone have something to refer to before the weekly meeting, which does not have to be long if it is well prepared. The set up keeps the communications efficient and consistent.

As for the original post, the outstanding team does not need the manager, so far. It will need one, after the writer deteriorate the culture and communication channels that have been established before him with own "trust" and f-words.

“Confront your own mortality, sooner rather than later.” Startupper or not, if you have family, get that life insurance; it is cheap when you are young.

Here is a great caltech lecture about why "simple" models have better out of sample performance. Jump to 28:00, if you want to get straight to the point.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZBUDG12Nr0&list=PLD63A284B7...

I wonder if it may be generalized to development teams. Do you think well-built REMOTE dev teams with effective leadership would perform better than dev teams that spend time on interaction?

Why then there are so few remote positions? Should we blame the lack leadership, lazy management, and flawed team building for the overcrowded and overpriced SF Bay Area?

PS: The link to the actual research: Sociometrics and observational assessment of teaming and leadership in a cybersecurity defense competition

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016740481...

Correct me if I am wrong.

As you note, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is used to choose the "best fit" CDFs. The set of CDFs then used to generate a random vector, which after a covariance adjustment becomes a synthetic datapoint.

The step that can ruin the synthetic data is exactly (the "best fit" CDFs) as the original distribution does not necessarily fit well any of the well-known distribution.

At the same time, "best fit" CDFs are responsible for anonymizing the results. So if you overfit and stick to the original data too close, you lose anonymity and capture the original data bias. But if you approximate with a distribution you introduce a distribution bias.

So the solution provides a tradeoff between anonymity and "best fit" corruption of the data.

It depends on what you want to test. Atm, testing an idea is easier than ever before, but shipping an MVP gets harder every day. To test the underlying idea we asked contractors to fill in prices in Google sheets. After that we have spent 2 years building our MVP. People expect you to be as useful, adaptive and intuitive as unicorns from the very start. (Looking back, we could have ship it faster, but as always you know which edges should have been cut post factum) Imho.

Surely appraisals regulation is just another instance of mortgage regulations. But is it not the over regulated mortgage market that blasted in 2008? Was it because of zestimates? Nope? Well here ya go. Let the people speak their opinion and work on their ML.

Here is the best and the most honest comment on this thread. Just do it boys n girls. N see where it takes you. Nature, nurture, luck? One can't change these things, so just do it n see where it takes you.

Ps: the most interesting question is if it is the creator who shapes the creation or is it vice versa.

That is sure some good writing because it touches so many problems our generation face. I would like to point out the question mentioned, why are we different from the great generation?

So here is a little love story about a vet from the great generation. Grandfather had 6 gunwounds and worked all his life on a coal mine in Siberia. He also was the happiest man I ever met.

He was sent to army because he was dating the wrong girl, my grandmother. Some local "boss" wanted to merry her so he sent my grandpa to the army. After three years of service grandfather had been offered to go to a Militar Academy, thats when he got a letter telling him that he had a daughter. It also stated thet grandmother went to work on coalmines on Shpitzbergen (google it), so her parents and little daughter get additional food supplies.

So he rejected the offer, droped out of the force and went back to Siberia. The army was not happy about it. He didnt get any military benefits, no badges, no pension, no documents of where he's been or what he's done. Only 6 gunwounds on his leg, arm and torso. When he got back he's made a fake electricians papers and got a job on a local coal mine. When grandmother found out that he is back she returned home in a few months. They got married and had 2 more kids. My granddad worked on the same coal mine for the rest of his life. They lived and died in the same 500sf wooden duplex. Coal heating, cold water 300 meters away from the home, WC in the yard. He drove one single motorcycle all his life. They have never had a phone, so he walked to the post office once a week to talk to his daughters.

How come he's been the happiest man I've ever met? Well, he loved fishing, his yard, cards and his family. He died a few years ago. His daughters had to fly half the world to get to the funeral. One lives in Tuscany, Italy, another in Santa Clara, CA.

What made that generation great? Maybe they did what had to be done and were happy about it. Perhaps they never expected much from life and tresured little what they had. Sure they had something our generation is missing.

PS: Grandfather's sister told this story to my aunt only after he died. He's never mentioned army or the hardtimes.

losing life. losing life is when someone is being blown up or kidnepped or shot down. so if you are still alive, keep the pressure. live.

Hey, Talking about poverty. You're poor if you don't have to decide if you wanna eat or smoke, coz you wanna eat. Is it a reason to get a job? Sometimes it is. Sometimes it is not. Once I've started a startup and it took off in 6 months. Money, girls. Next time I had to go to construction industry. And it was so much fun, I've spent 10 years in it. Pivot every day. Now, once again, we have a startup. Feels fresh and alive. Will it be successful? Of course it will. That is if my customers will pay me next month and I won't go broke. You got the idea? Start up life is in a sense a curse. It is a never ending story. To live it you gotta be a phoenix. And it is not a choice. It is a fate. Not necessarily a lucky one. But if you are an outlier, the strange guy, you gotta go on, an live your life. Go to construction if you have to. Or outsource. There is magic everywhere, if you can see it. Just try to see it, and make our life better.

Have not noticed this one so started my own:(, but i'll comment here too:)

So you got rejected? Good!

1. Now you know you KNOW you're on your own! 2. Next time you apply you will know that accelarator is not THE CHANCE to get to where you wonna be. Its just a SHORTCUT that you can take, or NOT.

Lately I have that feeling that people tend to approach accelerators like they approach Santa: "Dear Santa, I have been a flibustier all my life, and I have a bright idea, and I am really really smart. So please help me get my dreams come true..." Does not work.

If you THINK your idea is something that has to be done. Just go for it. Make it your mission and do whatever it takes to accomplish it. Once I met those guys from UK in Siberia riding their bikes. I asked em WTF? Well, they told me, they are on a mission to go around the globe on bikes.. Why? They had no clue, I had no idea, but they have done it. (find em "tough miles") Thats what a start up is, it may be even tougher.

(thats actually SCARY. Coz you will NOT have support from your friends, family, spouse and any reasonable person.)

IF you do it anyway, sometime you'll KNOW it works (coz you have clients and revenue and the growth). then YOU decide if you want to take the SHORTCUT or not.

Hope that helps. Listen to Iron Maiden - The Trooper There is always a chance.

Sincerely, Mike

PS: I will just go on painting Cathedrals to get the funding. Incorporte in HK. And launch my app for the HardHeads in July 2015:)