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shatnersbassoon

164 karma · joined February 9, 2016

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shatnersbassoon··on Understanding Causality Is the Next Challenge for Machine Learning
Yes - humans do it abductively, which isn't rigorous but serves our purpose most of the time. You can't trust a self driving system with abduction though - it's the style of reasoning that gave us rain dances and homeopathy.
shatnersbassoon··on Understanding Causality Is the Next Challenge for Machine Learning
I'm sure there was a philosopher who said that his deepest wish was to know just one cause. Been trying to find out who said it for ages with no luck, so maybe I'll just attribute it to myself.
shatnersbassoon··on Twitter and Facebook's action over Joe Biden article reignites bias claims
> Researchers at the US Crisis Monitor analyzed over 10,600 nationwide protests between May 24 (the day before George Floyd was killed by police) and Aug. 22, and found that nearly 95 percent were peaceful [1]

so >500 riots then?

shatnersbassoon··on I was excited for Neuralink, then I watched the demo
If he can't get cars to drive around a city autonomously, who is going to let him drive electrodes around their brain using automation?

Brain implant surgery is incredibly invasive and risky even with brain surgeons.

shatnersbassoon··on How SNES emulators got a few pixels from complete perfection
IANAL but my understanding is that while practically speaking the war is lost for SNES, corporations have to be seen to be defending their IP (particularly game characters in Nintendo's case) otherwise they run the risk of it becoming public domain in the long term. An example of this is brand names becoming generic names (e.g. dumpster, chapstick, escalator...). The corporations that owned these terms lost control of them because they weren't able to do enough to defend their IP. Since many of their modern titles are reliant on old IP it is vitally important that they retain a grip on it from a legal standpoint.
shatnersbassoon··on Earliest known draft of the King James Bible discovered
>>> King James was a protestant ruling about 70 years later I think it was people's doubts about his protestantism that led him to commission the bible - James' mother was Mary Queen of Scots, a catholic who was executed for a supposed plot to depose his predecessor Elizabeth I.
shatnersbassoon··on Scientific Papers That Were Rejected Before Going on to Win a Nobel Prize (2016)
Not having heard of them doesn't mean they don't exist.
shatnersbassoon··on Scientific Papers That Were Rejected Before Going on to Win a Nobel Prize (2016)
When it happened to me it was a "reputable" high-impact neuroscience journal, not Cross-stitch Monthly.
shatnersbassoon··on Scientific Papers That Were Rejected Before Going on to Win a Nobel Prize (2016)
This is certainly what used to happen - my experience was from 2007 so they might not be getting away with it any more.
shatnersbassoon··on Scientific Papers That Were Rejected Before Going on to Win a Nobel Prize (2016)
Bear in mind that a lot of papers are initially rejected by journals simply because the journals want another $99 submission fee.
shatnersbassoon··on Billions wasted on Hadoop startups, the same will eventually be true of Docker
Exactly.

"other VMs"? The whole point of Docker is that it's not a VM...

shatnersbassoon··on Wind provided 37 per cent of Ireland’s electricity in Q1 2019
It's not only wasting energy that the wind turbines could be generating. Power grids also have to maintain reserve and contingency so that if the wind suddenly dies everywhere (unlikely, but possible) they can more or less immediately compensate so the grid doesn't desynchronize. This is very expensive and inefficient. A storage solution that is co-located with the turbines would be optimal, as the best sources of wind are often far from urban areas. This means that quite often even if the power is required by the grid, it can't be used as grid constraints don't allow it. Violating grid transmission constraints leads to drooping power lines and cows exploding in fields (this is not an exaggeration).

Source: I designed the control room systems for electricity balancing for National Grid in the UK.

shatnersbassoon··on Is Anyone Listening to You on Alexa? A Global Team Reviews Audio
This is the magical thinking explanation. What is much more plausible is that they have such enormous datasets that they are able to train machine learning models to predict interests of people on the basis of any number of online behaviors that they record.

The behavior doesn't even need to "make sense" - it could be that people who log on at these times, live here, travel by train, like dog photos and belong to certain groups are highly to be interested in a particular product. It doesn't matter, the system will learn these relations anyway. It might seem spooky and eavesdropping-y from a naive user's perspective, but the simple fact is that when you have that much data you don't even need to eavesdrop.

shatnersbassoon··on The Battle for the Future of Stonehenge
There already is a road there. That’s the whole point. It’s one of the busiest in SW England and it is only ~200m away from the monument. The whole area (I.e. the “view”) is a protected historic landscape and it is blighted by the road. The plan is expensive because it is a bored tunnel. It is where the entrances of the tunnel are that is controversial - the middle of the tunnel will be deeper than the archaeology.
shatnersbassoon··on Some Details of My Personal Infrastructure
Obligatory mention that he spent 10 years writing a 1000+ page book of nonsense called A New Kind of Science that was basically about how great he is and how everyone else is an idiot: http://bactra.org/reviews/wolfram/ It's not just about productivity, people...
shatnersbassoon··on Antarctic Weddell expedition targets Shackleton's lost ship
Would you rather live under a boat on Elephant Island for an Antarctic winter or take part in the battle of the Somme? they happened at the same time.
shatnersbassoon··on Gatwick Airport: Drone sightings cause delays
Having seen what a Phantom 4 did to my thumb at idle, on the ground, I can tell you that it would absolutely fricasée a bird of prey while flying. The tips of the props are going >200kmh. The bird would have to take the drone all the way to the ground to prevent the drone recovering. You might get lucky once or twice, but pretty soon you would have your Harris hawk wrapped around one of the motors.
shatnersbassoon··on Better bus predictions (a lot better)
This is more a business issue than a tech issue. There are two dominant RTI systems providers in England (where my bus knowledge comes from), and only a few more in the world. If they start providing an open data feed of real time locations, then they are giving a leg up to competitors who would potentially be able to leapfrog their predictions, as well as undercut them on price. This would threaten their ticket machine business (the ticket machines incorporate the GPS tracker - something like 98% of buses in England have GPS). Having spoken to all of the RTI suppliers during my work for DfT in the UK government, I am convinced that they will not release these data unless legislation forces them to.

And that is basically what is happening early next year.

shatnersbassoon··on 50th Anniversary of May 1968, Paris: Memories of an Illusory Revolution
This is not true. Stalin was responsible for the deaths of 3 million children in the famine of 1934 alone. There were around 6-7 million deaths in the famines of the early 30s. Then there were the purges of the late 30s. Stalin was about to start a pogrom when he died. It was his policies of destroying the Kulaks (an elastically defined scapegoat) that resulted in most of the deaths. It was Stalin's extension of Lenin's murderous tendencies that caused this. Because the system ate itself (guards became prisoners after around 18 months, and prisoners tended to die), and because the Soviet Union was never overrun like Germany some people seem to be able to ignore that the USSR was the most murderous regime in history.
shatnersbassoon··on Good design for Humans
How is "good design is timeless" helpful advice?

Jones, make me something timeless, or your ass is fired

shatnersbassoon··on Good design for Humans
Yeah, this is a major misconception. Designers often forget how quickly people can get used to complex things, if they're using them day-in, day-out. Simple is bad design if it gets in the way of virtuosity.
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