9,195 karma · joined July 29, 2008
Currently: co-founder and Chief Data Officer at npm, Inc.
In my spare time:
http://seldo.com
http://seldo.tumblr.com
http://lgbtq.technology
Previously:
http://awe.sm (co-founder)
http://apps.yahoo.com (mostly the database)
http://widgets.yahoo.com (a fun gig while it lasted)
Contact:
http://twitter.com/seldo
me@seldo.com
"Suppose you find a stock that you know will increase in value. You go to the bank and say, “hey, can I borrow $90k to buy this stock? I’ll put down a down payment of $10k.” You’ll be laughed right out of there."
And then, later:
"Now suppose you find a house that you think is a good deal for $100k. ... suppose you go into the bank and say “hey, can I borrow $90k to buy this house, and I’ll put down $10k?” If you have decent credit, you’ll get the loan easily."
Leverage, i.e. a multiplication of your investment by borrowing money, is quite frowned upon when investing in stocks[1] but is not frowned upon, in fact positively encouraged, when investing in real estate. This is because "owning a home" has a sentimental value attached to it by policy makers that equity investing does not. It is a weird market distortion caused by bad policy, particularly in the US.
Leverage by retail investors is frowned upon because they can get badly burned and lose a ton of money. Real estate is not as volatile as equities, but as the financial crisis of 2007 showed, large numbers of retail investors going into real estate solely as a speculative investment can lose them huge amounts of money.
In all investing, the size of your return is related to the risk you are taking on. If you can get a 30% return investing in housing, as the author suggests, and only 6-7% investing in mutual funds, that's because housing is 4-5x more risky than a mutual fund. Higher returns are not just sitting around waiting for you to notice how much more money you can make.
So by all means leverage away if you've got capital and want to take on more risk for the chance of higher reward, but don't go into it thinking it's an "almost guaranteed way" to make money, as the author has concluded.
[1] Unless you are a large bank, but that's a whole other story.
[1] dotCloud don't actually yet recommend running Docker in production, but if you did...
[2] This was part of what Mailgun (part of Rackspace) said in their presentation at the Docker workshop in SF today.
http://www.theatlanticcities.com/commute/2012/01/transit-sta...
In fact, the data shows that if anything, introducing more transit will reduce crime.
The logo on Yahoo.com was -- from birth until around 2008 or so -- red. That was the color everybody outside of Yahoo knew. But inside the company everything that could be a color was purple, people were emotionally invested in it, and debate raged on getting Jerry and Filo (who were apparently the holdouts on red) to change the home page logo to purple.
It seems to me very emblematic of Yahoo that they chose their corporate color first entirely at random and then hung on to it forever out of sentimentality. That's the kind of place Yahoo is: fuzzy and loving but not terribly sensible, business-wise.
Changing the logo is a cliché for a struggling company that doesn't have a lot of new ideas. I actually don't think that's true of Marissa Mayer; a whole bunch of her ideas are along the lines of "do whatever Google did", but then Google is very successful, and at least part of what Yahoo needs to do is get better at the things that Google is already good at. But the acquisition-frenzy in mobile seems smarter, and the acquisition of Tumblr smarter still. Time will tell whether it's enough to turn the ship around.
But I still think it's weird that the corporate color is purple.
[1] Chosen essentially at random because they were the cheapest paints available when they painted their first offices. Purple and yellow do not go together at ALL, incidentally.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/08/29...
The degree of disconnection here from the reality of the situation in Syria is so enormous as to be insulting, even though that was not the intent.
But that's only the ad-hoc case: the bigger question is, if you have an image with instructions "RUN apt-get install mysql", you're not even halfway to having a copy of MySQL you can run in production: at a minimum you'll need to install a custom my.cnf to suit your application's operational parameters[1], but really you'll want it to be slightly different every time -- new bind addresses, potentially new master-slave relationship grants, etc.. The way docker images interact with configuration management in a grown-up production environment is still really hazy to me.
[1] We are all agreed that running default my.cnf in production is laughable, yes? That information has filtered into the mainstream from the DBA crowd?
There are trivial ways to solve this, obviously. You can stop the image, restart it running bash, use that to modify config files, and then restart it again. But it requires a change of mindset: these things are much more than background processes, but they are less than a full VM. As the piece mentions, configuration management for newly-started images seems to be a missing piece of the puzzle right now, and debugging running Docker images can be... strange. [2] Not necessarily difficult, but different from what you're used to, and learning curves are barriers to adoption.
As this tech matures I think these things will be quickly solved, and I'm looking forward to the results.
[1] Plus Virtualbox, started by Vagrant. See mitchellh's comment.
[2] Unless, of course, I'm missing something. Docker-people: how do you configure vanilla server images to work in your environment?
IE6 was a terrible browser, but it was the best browser at the time. The anti-competitive behaviour helped, and then of course they sat on their laurels for years, but the best browser won.
Under Ballmer, Microsoft had the same pattern repeatedly: Zune, Kin, Windows Phone, Surface, Windows 8 -- they took too long to see the need, took way too long to make the product, and when they did it was either not good enough, too late, or both.
According to some recent research[2], the three primary factors affecting the adoption of a programming language by developers are, in this order:
1. Libraries available
2. Familiarity
3. Performance
And per the paper, this order of preference is extremely strong. Which means, because of the huge mass of Javascript developers out there, that as soon as a library becomes available to do something in Javascript, Javascript will rapidly become the most popular way to do that thing, regardless of the performance hit.
[1] http://redmonk.com/sogrady/2012/09/12/language-rankings-9-12... [2] http://www.eecs.berkeley.edu/~lmeyerov/projects/socioplt/pap...
Lots of people use cars and don't know how to fix them. Lots of people live in houses but hire people to repair the plumbing or the electricals when those things break. You don't have to completely understand something to use something, and that's OKAY.
(Edit: apparently Freshmeat is now called Freecode? I guess it's been a while since I visited...)
I arrived in this country on an H-1B, and then I co-founded a company where I repeatedly examined the option of hiring employees on H-1Bs. It never, ever made sense to hire a foreign employee if there was a local one available, even though I have absolutely no bias towards hiring American citizens.
The only reason you'd hire an H-1B is if you were out of qualified American engineers, because it is so much harder to hire foreigners.
The chief users of H-1Bs are big, boring companies that can't attract local talent at any price. And then they can't hang on to them, thanks to the American Competitiveness in the 21st Century act, which lets H-1B holders switch companies if they get a better offer. The purpose of the law was to prevent companies using immigration status to "trap" employees at lower wage. Because the immigration system thought of that problem.
The argument that for the same price, you get a more-qualified applicant for a given lower-skilled position doesn't fly, because
a) the cost of an H-1B is far more than their salary; the legal fees run into tens of thousands of dollars before you even consider relocation. Foreign workers are much more expensive.
b) the pool of people willing to up and relocate from a foreign country to the US just isn't that big; the same market that applies to American engineers applies to foreign ones, and they are just as demanding.
c) once in America, the H-1B holders don't need to stick around if their salary is crappy, and they don't. See above.
The fundamental misunderstanding that a lot of people have about talent immigration is that they think there are hordes of unwashed foreigners beating down the doors to get in. They're not. Most people stay where they are. That's why you have to make it easier for them to get in, because we need them more than they need us.