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secretasiandan

626 karma · joined April 16, 2008

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secretasiandan··on Should High-Frequency Trading Be Banned?
One creates directly attributable profits with little, if any, ongoing exposure. The other creates little, if any directly attributable profits.

Furthermore, if the transfer is from one bank to another, the sender wants to hold onto the funds for as long as possible to earn more interest.

Lastly, most retail banks probably still run ancient code that is not as conducive to innovation.

secretasiandan··on Friends don't let friends get into finance
I really just wanted him to describe why he thought that obligation was "expensive"
secretasiandan··on Friends don't let friends get into finance
Can you tell me more about these commitments and what makes them expensive?

No one may explicitly choose to trade with HFT firms, but that doesn't mean they don't value their presence

"Although Vanguard does not engage in "high frequency trading" and does not operate a "dark pool," we believe much of the public concern over "high frequency trading" is misplaced and believes such activity, appropriately examined, contributes to a more efficient market that benefits all investors."

http://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-02-10/s70210-122.pdf

secretasiandan··on Friends don't let friends get into finance
Not all ideas can or should be taught in (elite) colleges. The framework to analyze any idea should be and generally is taught at colleges.

Repackaging and selling things is foundational to creating value. The insurance industry is perhaps the quintessential example. They create no direct expected value, and yet they create societal benefit by creating risk-adjusted expected value.

What is manufacturing but repackaging?

secretasiandan··on Friends don't let friends get into finance
"And it seems like the smarter the employees, the less likely they are to actually be providing any real services to people"

I would call this a negotiation that they are winning. Just like startup founders win in their negotiation with employees for equity.

"People generally won't use your site unless it helps them in some way."

And people generally won't trade with you unless it helps them in some way. Again, how is this different?

secretasiandan··on Friends don't let friends get into finance
the quant finance that takes the best and the brightest (as opposed to the bankers and sales traders), uses informational and computational advantage to make money.

How are internet startups any different?

Also, even the bankers and sales traders are providing a service that apparently people want. If you can judge them as not creating societal value, why can't I say that the Nth photo sharing website is not creating value?

secretasiandan··on A new class of Internet start-ups is trying to turn data into money
These startups are directly profiting from their ability to extract information that others can't.

They're NOT serving you recommendations of others' products. They're NOT serving you ads.

secretasiandan··on Chomsky on Intellectual Property
In fairness just because something is SOLD on the web doesn't mean it is NOT in the public domain.
secretasiandan··on Germany shuts down seven reactors‎ because of Fokushima
Here is a link to an article from his official web page where he appears to be stating a generally anti-nuclear point of view

http://www.sigmar-gabriel.de/Nachrichten/details/20110313_at...

This gives his statement about Merkel's move just being politics more weight

secretasiandan··on Bottom just fell out of Nikkei
efficient > slightly inefficient > inefficient > pretty inefficient

My comment was not meant to start a conversation about the meaning of efficient markets, but to get wheaties to explain his reasoning.

secretasiandan··on Germany shuts down seven reactors‎ because of Fokushima
I don't think this is a knee jerk reaction. I think this is a move for short term political gains without regard for the long term societal costs.

They had decided to extend the life of the reactors just last year. No new risk inherent to their design has been exposed. No new tsunami or earthquake risk in Germany has been exposed.

I agree with the person quote in TFA (despite the fact that his statement may be a political play as well) :

"She just wants to get through the provincial assembly elections," said Social Democrat leader Sigmar Gabriel, accusing her of playing political tactics with people's fears.

secretasiandan··on Bottom just fell out of Nikkei
You must think markets are pretty inefficient.

Can you explain why this is time to start buying?

If you can explain why people are selling so much so fast right now, that might help your argument.

secretasiandan··on Turn your earbuds into speakers
The following two statements do not jive

1) "Tembo Trunks don’t use batteries"

2) "Tembo Trunks amplify the music from your iPod’s earbuds to 80dB of clarity-enhanced Stereo Sound (3x the sound)"

Powerless sound amplification!

Additionally, "clarity-enhanced"? Fur realz? Lets hook N of these bad boys up in series and get N times the clarity!

secretasiandan··on How to Survive the Apocalypse on $20
I'm not sure that the cisterns he speaks of are meant for drinking, I think they're meant for fighting fires.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco_Fire_Department_A...

If they were used for drinking in the case of an emergency, I think you'd have to treat it a little bit unless they flush them regularly.

secretasiandan··on Why I am not worried about Japan’s nuclear reactors
While the article was a decent read, he is not an expert in this field. His work is in Supply Chain/Management

http://lean.mit.edu/about/lai-structure/faculty-researchers-...

Where does he get his expertise in nuclear reactors? According to the article, his father.

"He is a PhD Scientist, whose father has extensive experience in Germany’s nuclear industry"

secretasiandan··on How Your Coffee Mug Controls Your Feelings (& What You Can Do About It)
I more than readily accept your skepticism re NLP. But the first paper he talks about got into Science

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/328/5986/1712.abstract?sid...

I don't have access to the article itself, but I assume the writer didn't mangle the conclusions that badly. Can anyone with access help out here?

secretasiandan··on How Your Coffee Mug Controls Your Feelings (& What You Can Do About It)
"As for the notion of a thought vacuum, I think its incredible to consider that no matter how bleak an environment you may find yourself in, or how dull an object you may find yourself holding, these things are always influencing how you think and feel about the people and places around you."

What's more important to me than how this might/should effect product design, is how it should effect our concept of free will.

secretasiandan··on Rotor ships, aka Flettner ships
In the article, there's a link to an article of what appears to be a modern day production version, combining conventional ship propulsion with a Flettner drive.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-Ship_1

It looks like it takes advantage of the fact that conventional ship propulsion still needs fuel and HAS wind if under way (and not travelling such that its velocity relative to its surrounding airmass is zero).

The article suggests that combining standard ship propulsion with the Flettner rotors saves fuel : "The Flettner drive allows for projected fuel savings of 30-40% at a speed of 16 knots."

secretasiandan··on Most venture capital funds lose money
The 15 year ago vintage class does have amazing returns.

However, assume for a second we can take different vintage years and say that return(t-20 to t-0) = return(t-20 to t-15)*return(t-15 to t-0).

Then all the money was made from t-15 to t-10 since the t-10 vintage class has basically zero returns and the t-20 returns are approximately the t-15 returns annualized over 20 years instead of 15

secretasiandan··on Most venture capital funds lose money
A) The quarterly pooled MEAN metric does not necessarily tell you how the majority of venture firms perform over any sustained duration. Looking at the MEDIAN vintage year performance on page 7 does (at least a better job of it). From that, it appears most vintage years haven't made money since 1998.

B) We have data for vintage years, but not necessarily firms. I don't think its a terrible generalization to say that the last 10 or 15 vintage years represents VC firms now in business, else there are funds that have been open for 15 years and I believe they usually have a fixed lifetime of less than that.

C) Given points A and B, do you still believe they are drawing their conclusion (and poorly so) only from 10 year returns?

secretasiandan··on Most venture capital funds lose money
6th paragraph

"The median net return to VC fund investors has not been positive for any vintage year since 1998."

I'm curious, did you read the article and miss all the talk about vintage years? Or did you only skim it? Or did you only read the comment? Or did I misinterpret your comment?

secretasiandan··on Let’s Compete on Innovation Rather Than Patents
Your second and third paragraphs appear to be in conflict re bio-tech unless "faster moving" doesn't trump any negative side effects of removing patents. Can you elaborate?

I can see the argument for patents in areas like biotech where there's a huge up front cost in development and testing. But if the cost is really all in testing, then I think patents should be removed.

Additionally, I think patents should be much shorter since I believe returns/earnings on monopoly power today can be much greater than it was back when the patent duration was established.

secretasiandan··on On Not Hiring
Society attributes value to them for having taken the risk, but that doesn't necessarily mean it was a risk worth taking.

I would ask if there are moral implications of selling what you believe you can do (to employees/customers/investors) as if you actually can/have done it.

Also, someone doing it with their own money and doing it with someone else's money mean two different things.

This will probably seem like I'm throwing cold water on your founders, but that's not my direct intention. These are the issues that I think about when thinking about how to build a company.

secretasiandan··on [dead]
Further, at the rate they are paying/saving for their and their children's education, they don't need to do that very long before they no longer need to make the payments.

To present it as steady state is misleading.

EDIT : as other people are pointing out, there seems to be lots of double counting (high insurance premium + full contribution to HSA) and assumptions about steady state costs (cars,clothing) that are either misleading or a lifestyle choice that the family is making.

secretasiandan··on New cave found in Vietnam: "A skyscraper could fit"
A link to the article text rather than the photo gallery might be more appropriate

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/print/2011/01/largest-cave...

secretasiandan··on Hedge fund to use Twitter to predict stock market
Notice the caption in the picture of the metro article "A broker looks on in horror as the news that Justin Bieber has a mild cold brings about a global economic collapse (AP)"

The article you really want is the one linked to http://thenextweb.com/uk/2010/12/16/investment-fund-set-to-u...

I'm still pretty skeptical of this concept in general. That the fund doing this is a "family-owned investment boutique" sets off even more flags for me. I think this is just marketing for their asset management business.

secretasiandan··on Experiment HN: Crowdsourcing Tech Stock Predictions
M-W defition 2(b) of transparent : readily understood

It seems clear to me that the pricing mechanism is not readily understood by anyone, hence the ability for quantitative models to make money and yet still not be pure money printing machines (with the exception of HFT which does not claim to understand the general pricing mechanism, only short time span deviations from prior prices regardless of whether the prior prices are "wrong" or "right"). Further, the quantitative models I'm aware of price things on a relative basis : "given that we derive these general market parameters, things should be priced like f(x)", as opposed to "this company is worth X dollars". That fundamental analysts have jobs while still differing widely in their opinions suggests to me that the way to price things on an absolute basis is not well understood.

The underlying aggregation function may be simple, but we can't know that since its not transparent. My vote there goes towards not simple though.

Its most certainly democratic in some ways, though its unclear how votes are allocated. One per individual? One per trade? One per dollar? One per unit of influence?

I think the idea of crowdsourcing from a subset of the market could provide some edge, but think this is the wrong subset.

secretasiandan··on Is there a 4th missing component in the mechanical world?
The invetor's slides say that the only time the analogy breaks down is with ungrounded capacitors, though its unclear to me what exactly that means (I don't really feel like thinking too hard about it). See slide 17 http://www-control.eng.cam.ac.uk/~mcs/lecture_j.pdf

There are actually a few different analogies you can make between electrical/mechanical devices. See the top table "Key Concept: Analogous Quantities". This is part of the reason why I don't feel like thinking too hard about what the inventor means when he says the analogy "breaks down" with ungrounded capacitors. http://www.swarthmore.edu/NatSci/echeeve1/Ref/LPSA/Analogs/E...

The inventor has created a "new analogy" where the inerter is a capacitor. I read your post as saying the old analogies don't work. Is that correct?

secretasiandan··on Is there a 4th missing component in the mechanical world?
Charge being equivalent to position doesn't make much sense to me.

When I learned systems modelling, we studied spring-mass-damper systems right next to electrical circuits and I have ever since thought of a capacitor as equivalent to potential energy, an inductor as equivalent to inertia and a resistor as equivalent to friction.

secretasiandan··on John Carmack on government
Arguably, Singapore/Ireland/other small, developed, low tax nations can only exist given the presence of high tax countries like the US, UK, etc.
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