seanmcdirmid

It was 30% in the early 2000s, now it’s around 24%. Hence what I meant by falling. By volume it’s even worse: China is basically allowing many people in the developing world to own cars for the first time, as well as fuel them without expensive oil imports.

It actually abuts Hebei which puts it in striking distance of Beijing. I wonder about water though, it’s just grassland so there can’t be much to spare. It would be like building a data center in eastern Oregon.

You mean American consumers. Toyota still has to consider the rest of the world while America is basically a shrinking market now.

Landlord costs affect supply in the long term, so you will see changes, just not necessarily immediately over a one year period, but definitely over a 5-10 year period.

> We also don't see landlords who own their properties outright (and thus don't have mortgage interest costs) charging lower rents than landlords in the neighborhood with identical properties who have mortgages. When landlords' costs drop, do they drop the rent in response?

If costs are uniform for each landlord (they have to pay for), it limits the amount of money they can invest in new capacity, and you will see the effects over a decade. If one landlord has cost advantage over another, then they will of course probably just take the extra money as extra profit.

> Taxes on land do not affect the supply of the land, this implies they are not passed on and the research literature largely agrees with this.

They provide friction with what can be done with the land, because the cost of owning the land has to be paid. If it is just a land tax, however, you can game it by building as much as possible on it so the landowners who can't build as much as you can subsidize your usage (long term, you either have to build as much as you can on your land, or sell the land to someone who can).

if you have 128 GB, you could use Qwen Flash Next at some reasonable quant, with the new SSD hack for only keeping some of the model resident in memory.

I still haven't found a use case for Qwen3.8 27B that Qwen 3.6 35b A3b (MoE) is better at. I can get at most 40 tokens/second with 27B, but I get around 90 tokens/second with the MoE and it seems to be a more capable model.

I guess I should still keep experimenting though. Maybe I'm just not using a dense model correctly.

A later entrant can potentially side step those investments if their now is later. Since self driving car ventures aren’t profitable yet and need to make up their investments over time, thats a real risk for them.

China has plenty of coal. They import metal refining coal, which they don’t have. And they import thermal coal because it’s easier to boat the stuff in from Indonesia than move it east by rail from western China.

Australia was never very interested in being a manufacturing power house, they simply don’t have the people for it anyways, and it’s easier to ship raw material than finished goods vast distances. Russia has the same problem in population so China is convenient for them. China would have happened even if the USA didn’t help it along in 80s-90s.

Having been an extreme novice once, I can appreciate these laws. But as always you’ll probably get your experience the hard way.

Aren’t new DRAM fabs being built in China?

Taiwan cannot make chips without western inputs and spare parts, so China taking over Taiwan or Korea or Japan doesn’t really give them access to making those chips.

Chinese auto factories are heavily automated, to the point that some are already lights out. Yes, they still need technicians and some blue collar labor, but it’s not Mao or even Jiang’s China anymore.

$80k AUD isn’t far off from the American average car price, so I can see it being a reverse incentive for people at the boundary if the tax isn't graduated in.

People have lessened what they read because they can more easily watch a video or listen to a podcast. It’s not like the 1800s where books were the only game in town. And why read an AI written article when you can listen to the AI generated podcast with banter between two fake personalities (yes, this is what I heard when I wanted info about qwen’s newest model on Apple podcast).

Jalapeño also used to be a Java VM written in Java at IBM.

I use LLMs for nailing down the narrative in bullet point form. It proposes a lot of inappropriate points that I tell it to remove, but makes some useful proposals as well. It’s actually fairly efficient for narrative exploration, I then keep it away from prose for as long as possible since whatever it writes is pretty bad but once I start editing, it will usually clobber my edits if I make any narrative changes. Humans are still better at actual prose writing, especially when it comes to word rhythm.

Even if Japan doesn't want to defend Taiwan, the close geography makes conflict between china and Japan (and the USA) if China invades Taiwan.

If you are an American, you have to start looking into the housing deduction to make your taxes work since the foreign tax credit doesn’t go very far in Singapore (and you need the FTC after the foreign earned income credit caps).

> and they've tried to source their RAM from Chinese CXMT who declined because all capacity was already locked in contracts.

The US Government also wouldn't let Apple use Chinese RAM anyways, even for product that was just going to be used in China. China does have capacity issues though, and focusing on local brands first is probably the right call. Hopefully they can ramp even if they can't get the fancy lithography machines from the Netherlands.

You can sandbox with tool hooks, at least in antigravity, I think a lot of other harnesses support similar features. Sandboxing via the prompt is just dangerous and unreliable.

No, this will probably fall apart before Trump is out of office and a Democrat will be expected to clean up his mess again.

I think they are, it just doesn't appear as often. They are also limited by the chips they can get (limiting what power they can bring to bear), and also have NO PROBLEM building new power plants or other kinds of infrastructure (unlike the USA). Honestly, the biggest problem is water, since their renewable west lacks it, but even then they can just setup a data center to use more energy to substitute for less water usage.

> There were many other books/articles/documentaries with the same doom-and-gloom published since.

The USA losing its pre-eminent superpower status doesn't mean the end of the USA, or even the end of life as we know it. Are you rejecting some claim in the article that wasn't even made?

That's what we thought 8 years ago.

> That’s not to say they haven’t done a phenomenal job with demand destruction it’s just their own domestic usage is still very high and they have to import unlike other heavy users.

They will, just not as much as everyone was predicting a two decades ago. The fact that China isn't really feeling any pressure at all here should be a wake up call (they depend on oil, just less and less as time goes on). It isn't just that though, they basically took Nepal off oil completely, a bit of a special case since they had to import via India, which was always really expensive (and Nepal has lots of hydro). And the rest of the third world which simply can't afford much oil anyways now has a convenient other option.

Likewise, I don't see why ICE lovers are up in arms about people buying EVs. Shouldn't that just mean more oil (and less pricing pressure) for them?

I'm guessing China? China has shown the world that it can tolerate the shock, and it was even a huge boon for them as they are successfully exporting excess EV production. World demand is significant, China alone was expected to increase world oil demand to a breaking point, and that isn't happening, and in fact, China is exporting oil demand destruction.

The main complaint from Greece and Italy has been that Germany (and maybe even France) demanded (and got) strong monetary discipline for the Euro, so I'm pretty sure that the Euro itself isn't going to affect their debt much.

Is the euro doing or expected to do something strange?

US could choose defaulting as a better option to hyperinflation. It would lose all its credibility either way. The only thing it should do now is seriously jack interest rates, and maybe consider some austerity, but the working class is already at a breaking point and asking them to sacrifice even more for the billionaires isn't going to go over well politically (and the billionaires...).

> Markets will simply adjust and financial services will arise to smooth instances where liquidation is problematic.

The market will address by the wealth moving to where the wealth tax isn't.

Then the countries will start creating ridiculous exemptions and they become nothing burgers (e.g. see Switzerland's wealth tax).