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They dont understand people. They understand how to control people, which is completely different from the context of building products that people want - which requires an understanding of peoples tastes and preferences.

Simon: "I'm frequently finding myself with work on two or three projects running parallel. I can get so much done, but after just an hour or two my mental energy for the day feels almost entirely depleted."

Youre a time waster, stop posting and creating noise.

I think your kind of missing the point.

Think about it from a resource (calorie) expenditure stand point.

Are you expending more resources on writing the prompts vs just doing without it? Thats the real question.

If you are expending more, which is what Simon is indicating at - are you really better off? Id argue not, given that this cant be sustained for hours on end. Yet the expectation from management might be that you should be able to sustain this for 8 hours.

So again, are you better off? Not in the slightest.

Many things in life are counter-intuitive and not so simple.

P.s. youre not getting paid more for increasing productivity if you are still expected to work 8 hrs a day... lmao. Thankfully im not a SWE.

In a bizarre way all these new datacentre build outs may have 'fake demand' because of how inefficiently software gets produced.

Thats because the distribution of developer quality and capability is skewed.

What youre pointing at is the trade off between concentration of understanding vs fragmented understanding across more people.

The former is always preferred in the context of product development but poses a key person risk. Apple in its current form is a representation of this - Steve did enough work to keep the company going for a decade after his death. Now its sort-of lost on where to go next. But on the flip side look at its market cap today vs 2000.

" Karpathy did not spend a serious effort of learning to get a good understanding of people

This does not come from spending effort in learning people - its more innate. You either have it or you dont. E.g. you cant learn to be 'empathetic'.

It always boggles my mind when people dont consider genetic factors.

I personally dont believe he is trying to profit off the hype. I believe he is an individual who wants to believe he is a genius and his word is gospel.

Being picked by Elon perhaps amplified that too.

Even so, just imagine staring at yourself in the mirror - watching yourself spout gibberish. These people are beyond pathetic.

Im gonna go against the grain and say he is an elite expert on some dimensions, but when you take all the characteristics into account (including an understanding of people etc) I conclude that on the whole he is not as intelligent as you think.

Its the same reason why a pure technologist can fail spectacularly at developing products that deliver experiences that people want.

Legit. I think people spend too much on planning instead of focusing on getting to work and closer to the finished output. If you are fixated on a plan... good luck dealing with situations that throw you off piste.

lol pretty much. their reservation price was more than met.

Although considering Brin's interactions with female employees etc, no surprise really. They were full of it from the off. Page is better at hiding it.

"Overly-complex plans, slowly executed against"

lol this usually happens when those leading the project have no vision and aren't ruthless about achieving a well-defined outcome state.

Having a vision is understated and very rare to find in people. Many people pretend/wish they had 'it'.

Yeah the hardest thing is to focus intensely and have a strong vision for what exactly the output should be directionally. The second hardest is actually getting the project finished - that requires sustained intense focus.

Theres nothing more to it than that. Frameworks etc blah blah blah. Who cares. Get the work done.

In the early days they werent a publicy traded company and Brin/Page did not get exposed to the taste of being ultra-wealthy.

Steve Jobs looking back now is incredibly rare - someone who was wealthy but had the spirit of innovation to keep going again and again.

Its seemingly a hedge against not generating enough revenue to maintain existing investor trust / sustain operations in the future.

Because creating real products, like Apple does, is actually pretty hard to do.

Many people (such as Scam Altman) are happy to take short cuts and lie in your face in order to engage in wealth transfers.

Forget about that, the founders literally said word for word that advertising ruins search quality in their seminal paper. They became the exact thing they fore-warned about their competitors at the time.

Down-right joke really. The people who idolise them are incredibly delusional.

Nominal Risk free rate includes expected inflation.

Default spread reflects... well the likelihood of default.

Cost of debt = rf rate + default spread

Go look up the same word across various dictionaries - they do not have a 1:1 copy of the descriptions of terms.

Reproducibility is a separate issue.

I view LLMs akin to a dictionary - has a bunch of stuff in there but by itself it doesn't add any value. The value comes from the individual piecing together the stuff. Im observing this in the process of using Grok to put together a marketing video - theres a whole bunch of material that the LLM can call upon to produce an output. But its on you to prompt/provide it the right input content to finesse what comes out (this requires the individual to have a lot of intelligence/taste etc....) . Thats the artistry of it.

Now that Im here Ill say Im actually very impressed with Groks ability to output video content in the context of simulating the real-world. They seemingly have the edge on this dimension vs other model providers. But again - this doesnt mean much unless its in the hands of someone with taste etc. You cant one-shot great content. You actually have to do it frame-by-frame then stitch it together.

Yeah this basically. They are trying to find a particular kind of person.

The people who are truly exceptional at what they do wouldnt waste their time on leetcode crap. Theyd find/create a much better alternative opportunity to allocate their precious resources toward.

" we will have replaced a lot of other people first."

This is flat out wrong and shows your lack of respect and understanding for other jobs.

Yeah people seem to be pretty poor at judging the impact of 'key' people.

E.g. Steve Jobs was absolutely fundamental to the turn around of Apple. Will Brin have this level of incremental impact on the Goog/Alphabet of today? Nah.

This is why posts here that are not purely tech related have to be taken with a grain of salt. Total disconnect from what caters the tastes and preferences of most people.

Dont mention the recent Eric Schmidt scandal.

Barely any of these jokers are clean. Makes MZ look seemingly normal in comparison.

So why havent you been fired already?

.......

Its irrelevant. A robot is a robot.

Dictionary def: "a machine controlled by a computer that is used to perform jobs automatically."

"Waymo as a robot in the same way"

Erm, a dishwasher, washing machine, automated vacuum can be considered robots. Im confused as to this obsession of the term - there are many robots that already exist. Robotics have been involved in the production of cars for decades.

......

The internet alone didnt change sh!t. Without smartphones, unified app stores, cellular network innovation et al internet traffic would not be so high.

Funny how people leave this stuff out. Yawn. Basic simpleton analysis and takes.