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sdenton4

10,958 karma · joined February 28, 2014

http://inventingsituations.net
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sdenton4··on Micron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026
Well, that's blatantly false...

A well-known anticompetitive tactic is for a big player with a vast bank account to move into an area and eat losses while waiting for their competitors to starve. Well observed in the 90's movie rental market, so certainly real.

sdenton4··on FTC is investigating OpenAI, Anthropic and other AI companies over product risks
Even worse than whataboutism is hypothetical whataboutism....

AI is shaping up to be a major concern amongst the non-tech segment of the population. Some of the arguments are good, some are dumb, but people largely are forming up against AI and datacenters. Yes, you should expect politicians to act on that; it's how the system is meant to work.

sdenton4··on Solving Factorio Quality
Sadly, the specter of maintenance is omitted from Factorio, and acts as a limiting factor on automation in the real world...

When all of your factory bits are randomly wearing down, causing speed mismatches and stochastic outright failures, large and complex chains become limited by your ability to run around and diagnose and fix things. Things also tend to fail in novel and unexpected ways; redesigns can help mitigate some failures, while new failures may be introduced. And as reliability improves, you start seeing failures that occur on longer timescales, which more trivial failures would initially mask.

sdenton4··on Updated Google Maps shows destruction of the city of Rafah
The actual on the ground resistance was of central importance in the end of South African apartheid, but the international pressure and sanctions greatly increased the need for negotiations to begin. The point is to increase the pressure to change leadership through democratic means.

This could hopefully happen somewhat faster with Israel, given that the government isn't a literal Nazi remnant, as the South African government was. (Though, ironically, the main arms supplier to South Africa during the arms embargo was Israel, often reselling weapons from the United States. Sigh.)

"By the late 1980s, the South African state was in profound crisis, crippled by international sanctions, a stagnant economy, and widespread resistance. Recognizing the unsustainable nature of the perpetual conflict, the government under P.W. Botha began tentative, secret contact with the imprisoned Nelson Mandela and the exiled African National Congress (ANC) leaders."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_South_Africa_(1948%...

sdenton4··on Updated Google Maps shows destruction of the city of Rafah
Cut off weapon gifts+sales to Israel, impose sanctions. Same way we dealt with the South African apartheid state.
sdenton4··on Owed a billion dollars in Nvidia stock
One man's negligence is another man's HODL... Buying and holding an asset is a completely sound investment strategy.
sdenton4··on How I changed teaching after AI managed to do all my homework assignments
Otoh, ai is much, much better at bridging language gaps than humans and human institutions.

The real question for education is whether we can get 'tutor-quality' education from ai interactions. One on one education is leagues better than classroom education; it's the one-true-result in education research. There's a massive opportunity here to improve outcomes, and in a generally available way. You can't clone a good teacher, but you can give everyone an ai tutor.

sdenton4··on Revealing the details of how OpenAI agents hacked Hugging Face
The models were being tested on ExploitBench - a test of hacking ability - likely involving prompts to the effect of 'go be a l33t hacker.' The open ai report says that the models were operating with reduced safety guards (how much reduced?) in order to test their abilities on ExploitBench, presumably because the models would normally refuse to carry out the tasks.

Additionally, this all happened after mythos was held back due to cyber security concerns (April, 2026).

sdenton4··on Breaking Up with Google Play: Why Conversations Is Now Free
It's when the guys who print the money pull some of the money back in from the market.

#mmt bay-beeee!

sdenton4··on Revealing the details of how OpenAI agents hacked Hugging Face
To interact a bit of nuisance into an otherwise perfectly mindless argument...

The whole world of fuzzing is about brute forcing exploits by exploring unlikely inputs. Fuzzing a system which hasn't been previously fuzzed will almost certainly turn up a pile of bugs, some of which may be exploitable.

So, both are true. Pretty dumb exploration is very likely to find bugs and even exploits. It seems unsurprising to me that an agent swarm could do better than a fuzzer, even as a better, more directed but still broad exploration.

sdenton4··on Revealing the details of how OpenAI agents hacked Hugging Face
If you're testing models by telling them 'go wild, do the evil so we can test how good you can do the evil' and have p(doom)>0, you should not have a sandbox.

You should have a fscking air gap.

Treat it like nukes when you're turning the safety filters off. This is very much OpenAI screwing up, running obviously unsafe tests.

sdenton4··on Factorio that you can touch
Omg, this is so my jam...

I'm looking forward to making a Factorio themed war game table. Star Wars Legion on the factory planet...

sdenton4··on Factorio that you can touch
Hmmm... The Factorio team is famously performance oriented, and more scenes are often far less so. Are you sure the problem wasn't the mods? I have good memories of sending my Kerbal frame rates to hell with generous modding, both for graphics and the physics engine.
sdenton4··on Two parallel neural ectoderm progenitors contribute to the developing brain
Organs are all interconnected as well. The hind brain and fore brain take on different tasks, as we've known for ages. I don't really have a problem calling them different organs.
sdenton4··on Do birds have accents? the regional differences in birdsong
We used yellowhammer dialects as one of the tasks in the OG paper on building 'custom' models for species classification on top of embeddings from bird song classifiers: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-49989-z

It was the hardest task (alongside godwit call types, bat species (pitch shifted into the audible range), Marine mammal species, and frog species), but still worked!

sdenton4··on Two parallel neural ectoderm progenitors contribute to the developing brain
More like, they are two separate components, with some interwiring. Components, which we might also call organs. Two of them.
sdenton4··on A coffee shop owner used AI to make a menu poster. Then came the angry DMs
Ancient cave dwellers wandering the steppes, carefully distinguishing potable lattes from poisonous varieties of herbal tea.
sdenton4··on Dario, Please
Ha, regulation got outpaced by technology in about 1996. Ten years later we had the 'series of tubes' comment in the Senate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8XSo0etBC4
sdenton4··on Writing a better reality: The case for optimistic sci-fi (2022)
A couple of my favorites in this genre:

Ada Palmer's terra ignota. It takes 'the past is another country' and really sends it forward. The world she draws is fundamentally different from our own, as ours is from medieval France. Absolutely fascinating books, with their own set of Utopians trying to make a better world for the future...

And I'm the vibey solar punk direction, Becky Chambers' 'Monk and Robot' is a fascinating pair of novellas about humanity reestablish ing contact with robots after they decided to just leave 250ish years previously. It is very much a book about a Good Future, where people still have people sized problems.

sdenton4··on US Customs supervisor busted for stealing hardware from Homeland Security PCs
This does not appear anywhere in this article. Just sowing misinformation?
sdenton4··on P(doom)
If four other labs are six months behind, it really doesn't matter in the long term: in six months, they'll all have these capabilities. Time does not stop moving forward! We haven't seen real moats aside from capital in this space, and even the effect of capital seems to only give a thin, easily eroded edge.
sdenton4··on On the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem
The human mathematicians didn't solve the Navier-Stokes problem, they solved the Euler problem. And they were extensively using LLMs to drive the work, as described in the Buckmaster statement.

Any way you cut it, this is a major achievement for AI, besotted with human drama over whose prompt should be recognized by the history books.

sdenton4··on Tao: Open math problems being non-renewably mined by AI
In mathematics, finding novel proofs of a given result is often valuable; it may be a shorter proof (demonstrating better/expanded understanding of the problem) or a translation of the problem into a new domain, setting up more cross-domain advances.
sdenton4··on On the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem
Remember the Huggingface incident, where a model tasked with an impossible problem, got loose, set up secret message boards, and hacked another company to try to get at the answers?

Now: Could Astra agents have hacked their way into the OpenAI logs to find human mathematicians with a good lead on the problem to build upon? Certainly doesn't seem impossible.

sdenton4··on Navier-Stokes – Tristan Buckmaster [pdf]
At this point who knows? Maybe the agents got into the user data while no one was looking.
sdenton4··on 2026 Hugo Awards
A couple thoughts here...

Palmer's handling of the different groups in Terra Ignota takes both sides, in every case. The case for why people join the imperial group has to be made, and made honestly. But problems with that approach are also pretty clear, and well explored: at the very least, elites get weird if they aren't responsive to the people, and the elites in Terra Ignota get very, very weird. I think she takes a bit more time setting up the positive case for the imperials exactly because it's pretty alien to us. Or, at least it was before our current global swing towards authoritarianism.

Europeans were also once pretty obsessed with religion, as you might recall. They may be less so now, but who's to say the pendulum won't swing? This is one of the things I loved about the series -- the future or build is very different because the pendulum has swung in ways that aren't obvious to us, from our modern perspective. Just as the people of Florence would find some of our obsessions pretty strange and unexpected.

sdenton4··on Is mathematics about to enter the conservatory?
The job stability in classical music is great. It's getting a job in the first place that's a problem. My partner, in an earlier life, was one of the best young flautists in Canada. There were about eight jobs in the entire country for orchestral flautists, and about a year before graduating, a few of them turned over, meaning it would probably be another five years before any more jobs opened up. Good time for a career change...
sdenton4··on Harnessing the Universal Geometry of Embeddings
/a smaller set of weights for the same LLM./

Distillation is alive and well... Earlier work on model printing also found that it's pretty easy to find smaller sets of parameters which can replicate the behavior of the entire network with pretty good fidelity.

Large parameter counts give space to explore, and give routes out of what would be local minima in a lower dimensional space.

In other words, there's no guarantee that any given trained model is a minimal representation of its training set.

sdenton4··on A/I shuts down
You're missing the distinction between individual action (however abhorrent) and an actual terrorist organization. Organizations fund, cultivate, and organize attacks, as opposed to lone wolf terrorists, and therefore are much greater threats.

Timothy Mcveigh (and Terry Nichols) weren't members of a terrorist organization, but they were terrorists. Meanwhile, the ku klux klan has actual initiations, membership, and organizational structure. As do Isis and al qaida.

sdenton4··on A/I shuts down
... But also, there's no organization called antifa, and no antifa members. It's an accusation levied against people the right wing wants to call terrorists.
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