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scottiebarnes

449 karma · joined December 3, 2021

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scottiebarnes··on Stop Using Face ID
The same passcode prompt appears after software updates, multiple previous failed Face ID login attempts, and maybe more.

Not a lawyer, but everyone has a password locked phone and its standard practice for device security. I'm not optimistic for a prosecutor winning on an interference charge.

scottiebarnes··on US trade deficit widens by the most in nearly 34 years in November
Generally I'd rather be in a trade surplus; I would want my country to sell more things than it buys. Energy, technology, machinery, services, whatever it is, if I'm selling, it means I have productive capability/advantage over others and thus more independence.
scottiebarnes··on Digg.com relaunch public beta is live
is that a daily ai generated podcast?

and ai generated icons...

scottiebarnes··on Crypto investors face tax crackdown as 70% non-compliant
The swapping of any asset for another asset would be a taxable event
scottiebarnes··on 73% of AI startups are just prompt engineering
Every city should have its own municipal chip fabrication plant!
scottiebarnes··on I have recordings proving Coinbase knew about breach months before disclosure
Are you going to be suing?
scottiebarnes··on Jensen Huang's Stark Warning: China's 1M AI Workers vs. America's 20k
The root cause of this is: 1) population size, 2) social investment into math and science.
scottiebarnes··on Gold Prices Top $4k for First Time
Ah, so gold is a shiny rock that doesn't have a decentralized transmission network (the internet).

Mining and smelting gold requires quite a bit of electricity. But Bitcoin the network undoubtedly uses more.

As for small denominations, Bitcoin goes down to a single unit of Satoshi (1/100 millionth of a btc) and since its digital, subdivision is trivial.

So despite this, there are far more retail and commercial opportunities to exchange your btc for goods and services, where as I don't know of any place I can trade gold coins for things.

scottiebarnes··on Gold Prices Top $4k for First Time
That's great. I also enjoy taking custody of my data and property.
scottiebarnes··on Gold Prices Top $4k for First Time
And how does it compare to gold?
scottiebarnes··on Gold Prices Top $4k for First Time
Your observations are also a bullish signal for Bitcoin, as it sort of functions as a "digital gold". Cheaper to transmit, cheaper to custody, basically instantly auditable/verifiable, as a financial instrument. No need to inspect, ship and melt down to store in warehouses.
scottiebarnes··on The best YouTube downloaders, and how Google silenced the press
Not sure if this applies to livestreams but look into the --download-sections arg?

yt-dlp --download-sections "*05:00-05:10" <YouTube URL>

scottiebarnes··on US national debt reaches a record $37T, the Treasury Department reports
On my reading list: Principles For Navigating Big Debt Crises by Ray Dalio
scottiebarnes··on Food, housing, & health care costs are a source of major stress for many people
A lot of manual labor and optimization on the marginal things.

Ex: Raspberries start to get funky. Bad ones get picked out, good ones get regrouped into a new tray package. Ripe avocados with limited shelf life? Go into deep cold refrigerator overnight, back out the next day. Discount deal on volume, on everything ("2 for $X"). Cash only. etc.

scottiebarnes··on On doing hard things
Heart rate training is key for a smoother onboarding. Most beginners (myself included) simply try to do a pace that they simply can't sustain, think running is too hard, and then quit. Building that aerobic base is something I wish I understood far sooner.
scottiebarnes··on Nvidia Becomes First Company to Reach $4T Market Cap
I bought shares, a sum that I could afford to lose but also a non-trivial amount.

As it went up, I occasionally sold some and took profit, but not much, till now.

I saw how important and productive machine learning was, and it seemed like NVDA had an excellent CUDA moat, so that was my thesis for that bet. In the last couple years I sold some and bought a house.

This is obviously a story with survivorship bias. But anyway my superpower isn't technical knowledge, its the lack of emotion and bias towards non-action when markets tumble. As you probably know, time in the market is better than timing the market.

scottiebarnes··on Nvidia Becomes First Company to Reach $4T Market Cap
Fair enough.

As someone who bought NVDA in 2016/2017 and held till now, I'm very happy with the way I applied my software knowledge to profit where I won't have to work again.

Risk taking is best done in domains where you have an edge!

scottiebarnes··on Nvidia Becomes First Company to Reach $4T Market Cap
Yes, that is a limit of the model (PE ratio) that we're using. It requires the holding of all variables to be constant, which is not practical.

We use it as a snapshot in time to check our sanity and to allow us to compare apples to oranges.

That said, you could have made the same statement about AAPL or MSFT 20-30 years ago, and you would have been dead wrong.

scottiebarnes··on Nvidia Becomes First Company to Reach $4T Market Cap
NVDA's current forward P/E ratio (price to earnings) is about 37.

That means if we hold constant the profit earnings, if you bought the whole company at its current valuation ($4tr), it would take you 37 years to break even.

Is this reasonable? Depends on sector and growth potential. To me, this is a "fair" valuation and not overly inflated based solely on existing earnings.

scottiebarnes··on Why can't stinking rich Ivies cope with losing a few hundred million?
I'm not sure this is a "free market choices" problem. Some institutions like education should be funded by government, in part or in whole.

The government threatening to take away that funding based on "taste" is more of a problem of authoritarianism.

scottiebarnes··on Privacy folks – what's your take on using LLMs at work?
Does the existence of Google or Stackoverflow result in poor work, or is it the way the programmer utilizes them?
scottiebarnes··on Ask HN: Has anyone quit their startup (VC-backed) over cofounder disagreements?
You don't really have a startup, you're back to searching for an idea to work on.

Your team is no longer productive.

scottiebarnes··on US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU
If the consumer price index, which is a metric the Fed uses, goes up, then inflation has gone up. Every dollar buys you less (less purchasing power), and the nominal price has increased. To me this indicates inflation. Of course, you need to calculate how this balances out in terms of jobs/wages and the flow of investment, but that's really hard to figure out at this point in time.

I'd expect the CPI to go up in the event of global tariffs at a baseline of 10% assuming all things go ahead as described.

scottiebarnes··on Elon Musk's Toxicity Could Spell Disaster for Tesla
I believe he owns about 13% of TSLA shares as of now.

I think he his outlived his usefulness to the company (how can he actually be productive considering the things he spending his time on?).

As a shareholder I want him out. Or maybe I'll exit.

scottiebarnes··on Hezbollah hand-held radios detonate across Lebanon, sources say
To be ultra targeted you actually have to know where your target is when your bomb goes off. When you detonate thousands at once, you're simply accepting the civilian casualty risk.
scottiebarnes··on AI-powered music scam nets musician $10M in royalties–and federal charges
This is like a rite of passage for young early web devs. Click the banners till you get banned.
scottiebarnes··on Chicago Fed President Goolsbee says if economy deteriorates, Fed will 'fix it'
And recently, the firmness of the 2% target has changed.

Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) allows for the Fed to let inflation to run above 2%, with the hopeful expectation of bringing it down below it at some point.

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/assessing-the-federal-res...

scottiebarnes··on Chicago Fed President Goolsbee says if economy deteriorates, Fed will 'fix it'
They'll always "fix" it, until they can fix it no more. We are addicted to easy money.

$35 trillion of national debt.

$1 trillion in annual interest payments alone to service that debt.

Cumulative inflation of 66.3% over the last 20 years (based on CPI, it's probably actually worse).

Highest "Home Price to Median Household Income" ratio in the last 70 years, currently higher than the last housing bubble.

scottiebarnes··on Nvidia is now worth $102M per employee
Or here's another perspective:

Remember the point of "AI" is getting human-like productivity out of machines.

So should it be surprising that the company at the forefront of this is has a low human-to-everything ratio?

scottiebarnes··on I joined landlord groups to persuade them to be better people to their tenants
The internet is one big psyop
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