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sbelskie

677 karma · joined July 6, 2020

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sbelskie··on Congress urged to ease immigration for foreign science talent
Should California force SV tech companies to hire a minimum percentage of people from CA?
sbelskie··on Congress urged to ease immigration for foreign science talent
The decrease in net migration has everything to do with COVID + and embarrassing inability to process green card and other immigration related backlogs and almost nothing to do with there not being enough people willing to migrate here. At worst there are tens of millions of people who would migrate here; upper estimates are around 750 million, though that is only based on stated intention AFAIK and the real number would likely be lower.
sbelskie··on Butyrylcholinesterase is a potential biomarker for Sudden Infant Death Syndrome
Why is FDA against the device? Honestly curious.
sbelskie··on World military expenditure passes $2T for first time
This graph only goes back to 2000 but even on that timescale current military spending is lower than past peaks: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS
sbelskie··on The tech bubble that never burst
Is total return here increase in price + dividends or are the dividends also being reinvested?
sbelskie··on Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company
Are you claiming that this common kind of poison pill provision is illegal?
sbelskie··on Measurement of the W boson mass reveals 7σ deviation from calculations
I feel like I’ve read that book before but can’t recall what it was.
sbelskie··on I'm Too Risk-Averse for Index Investing
The article suggests that “value investing” is not just about price ratios (which is mostly all such indexes can offer).
sbelskie··on I'm Too Risk-Averse for Index Investing
I can understand that feeling but what offers average Americans a better option for growing and securing wealth than investing (most) savings in the stock market?
sbelskie··on I'm Too Risk-Averse for Index Investing
The part of the argument made by looking at individual countries is much less compelling in a world where low cost total world stock etfs exist.

They are of course weighted heavily to the US just given the size of US stocks, but one can reduce that exposure by buying low cost regional etfs or even just total world ex-US.

That seems like a better risk averse approach (possibly with some allocation to a total bond etf depending on your time horizon) than trying to pick individual value stocks.

sbelskie··on US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018
“ Adjustments to the IORB rate help to move the federal funds rate into the target range set by the FOMC. Banks should be unwilling to lend to any private counterparty at a rate lower than the rate they can earn on balances maintained at the Federal Reserve. As a result, an increase in the IORB rate will put upward pressure on a range of short-term interest rates. The opposite holds for a decrease in the IORB rate. Typically, changes in the FOMC's target range are accompanied by commensurate changes in the IORB rate, thus providing incentives for the federal funds rate to adjust to a level consistent with the FOMC's target.”

https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/why-is-the-federal-reser...

sbelskie··on US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018
But doesn’t the Fed still pay on reserves held? Even if it’s not required, the Fed increasing the rate paid on reserves would put upward pressure on other rates, otherwise banks would just take the IORB rate.
sbelskie··on Inflation propagates unevenly
For what it’s worth, the BLS does have methods to account for both of these. How well they work I don’t know, but the numbers you see reported contain adjustments for these.
sbelskie··on Unit Testing Validators in C#
I invariably end up using Func<TModel, TModel> instead of Action<TModel> for stuff like this to support immutable objects/properties. Increasingly common with records now, but not really needed if everything is always mutable on the objects you are validating.
sbelskie··on Economists say that high gas prices triggered the housing crisis in 2007 (2012)
Defaulting just means you have not made required payments for a certain period of time (270 days for student loans), so anyone can default.
sbelskie··on Early peek at C# 11 features
I think the proposed raw string literals open up the possibility for something like this in the future.
sbelskie··on C# Raw String Literal Proposal
The construct seems to be defined as:

``` multi_line_raw_string_literal : raw_string_literal_delimiter whitespace* new_line (raw_content | new_line)* new_line whitespace* raw_string_literal_delimiter ; ```

Which I think says that the opening and closing new lines (after and before the """'s) are NOT part of the content of the string literal, but new lines between them can be part of the string literal.

sbelskie··on C# Raw String Literal Proposal
With potentially more on the way!

https://github.com/dotnet/csharplang/blob/main/proposals/utf...

sbelskie··on How much do construction costs matter to the price of housing?
Except how much someone is willing to pay for something depends on, among other things, prevailing market prices, which are influenced by marginal costs.

I may be happy to buy a house for anything less than 200k but if all houses are selling for 100k, then that (or something like it) will be the amount I am actually willing to pay.

If construction costs rise and now builders are only selling houses for 150k, I will now be willing to pay that price.

sbelskie··on America’s Covid job-saving programme gave most of its cash to the rich
I think it’s totally fair to criticize the response and suggest it could have been better, I meant it more in terms of the people complaining never seem to entertain the counterfactual of how bad things could have ended up with no/poor fiscal response.
sbelskie··on America’s Covid job-saving programme gave most of its cash to the rich
Were there countries that did a better job than the US in regards to the economic response the pandemic, particularly with respect to fiscal stimulus? Is any other country as close the the US to prepandemic GDP trendlines?

I wouldn’t be surprised if there are but I’m honestly not aware of them.

sbelskie··on America’s Covid job-saving programme gave most of its cash to the rich
What country has GDP on a better trend compared to pre-pandemic than the US?
sbelskie··on Joni Mitchell joins Neil Young in protest against Spotify
Is that not speech?
sbelskie··on Microsoft to Acquire Activision Blizzard
It offers some n64 titles now as well.
sbelskie··on CDC reports increase in human rabies cases linked to bats in the U.S.
Myth: 4 people in the United States died from rabies last year.

Fact: 5 people in the United States died from rabies last year.

sbelskie··on Human geneticists curb use of the term ‘race’ in their papers
From your link:

> However, a large genome-wide association study has failed to find any large or statistically significant effects of the MAOA gene on aggression.[47] A separate GWAS on antisocial personality disorder likewise did not report a significant effect of MAOA.[48] Another study, while finding effects from a candidate gene search, failed to find any evidence in a large GWAS.[46] A separate analysis of human and rat genome wide association studies, Mandelian randomization studies, and causal pathway analyses likewise failed to reveal robust evidence of MAOA in aggression.[49] This lack of replication is predicted from the known issues of candidate gene research, which can produce many substantial false positives.[50]

sbelskie··on Inflation rises to 6.8% year over year
The CPI does have formal methods for attempting to account for this:

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/quality-adjustment/questions-and-ans...

This can occasionally result in odd things, like when the introduction of unlimited cell phone data plans led core inflation to drop one month for first time in seven years:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-REB-37505

sbelskie··on Inflation rises to 6.8% year over year
Do you think that the economy has shrunk in half in real terms in the last 20 years? Because that’s essentially what it would mean for those numbers to be true.
sbelskie··on Inflation rises to 6.8% year over year
But houses are capital goods that generally appreciate in value, for the purposes of calculating CPI, treating them like consumption goods or like other consumer durables (e.g. vehicles) that generally depreciate seems odd to me.
sbelskie··on Omicron variant found in nearly one-third of U.S. states
Planes will begin crashing five times as often but only half as many people will die in each crash. What’s not to love?
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