23,059 karma · joined October 9, 2006
(dang please don't ban me for a low-quality comment :) i couldn't resist but will not make it a habit!)
It is difficult to define AGI, and it is difficult to say what the remaining puzzle piece are, and so it's difficult to predict when it will happen. But I think the responsible thing is to treat near-term AGI as a real possibility, and prepare for it (this is the OpenAI charter we wrote two years ago: https://openai.com/charter/).
I do think what is clear is that we are, in the coming years, going to have very powerful tools that are not AGI but that still change a lot of new things. And that's great--we've been waiting long enough for a new tech platform.
I'll still be involved (and will ensure we continue to take risks and grow!), and obviously Michael is amazing.
https://blog.samaltman.com/the-days-are-long-but-the-decades...
Until then, if you aren't born lucky, you have to claw your way up for awhile before you can take big swings. If you are born in extreme poverty, then this is super difficult :(
It is obviously an incredible shame and waste that opportunity is so unevenly distributed. But I've witnessed enough people be born with the deck stacked badly against them and go on to incredible success to know it's possible.
I am deeply aware of the fact that I personally would not be where I am if I weren't born incredibly lucky.
But first this has inspired me to get to work on the forgotten Part II.
It never stops being amazing to watch a team go from an idea to a profitable, fast-growing business in 3 months.
Edit: ok, here's what we've got: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17806459.
However, I think it's easy to fall into a trap of assuming that everything about China (or any other culture) is worse just because it's different. My experience in China, and talking to Chinese people about their experiences in China, has been very different than what I assumed it would be.
China is an especially interesting market to us given the quality of companies and entrepreneurs we see there.
My point in the parent-linked article is just that Trump beat us using our own playbook, and shame on us if we don't notice that and adjust for next time.
I think that our side should be ashamed we got beat with out own playbook and not let it happen again.
I also think if we don't realize what happened, we will not win future elections. So I hope we learn this very painful lesson soon.
I could just refuse to comment for these articles, but I'm more interested in us winning elections in the future than not facing criticism. It's important to me to engage and point out what I think is important.