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ryanwaggoner

20,541 karma · joined August 24, 2008

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ryanwaggoner··on Tesla workers shared sensitive images recorded by customer cars
I see your point, but for me they both speak to a culture that has no respect for their customer.
ryanwaggoner··on Tesla workers shared sensitive images recorded by customer cars
Yeah, you can definitely trust Tesla to keep their word and safeguard your data. I mean, otherwise there would be stories of employees passing around video footage stolen from customer’s cars, right?
ryanwaggoner··on Simply explained: How does GPT work?
I get what you’re saying, but can you define what “understanding” is, and when you’ll know that an AI is achieving it for a given task?
ryanwaggoner··on Simply explained: How does GPT work?
It is not smart and it is not skilled in any tasks other than that for which it is designed.

This seems to me to be obviously incorrect, and should be apparent after a few minutes of playing with GPT4. What makes it so powerful is how general-purpose it is, and it can be used for literally an unlimited set of tasks that involve human language. To say that it's not "smart" begs the question of what exactly constitutes smart and when you'll know that an AI has achieved it.

ryanwaggoner··on Simply explained: How does GPT work?
It's interesting to me how many commenters on HN are absolutely convinced that GPT4 is incapable of thought or understanding or reasoning, it's "just" predicting the next word. And then they'll insist that it'll never be able to do things that it's already capable of doing...

Interestingly, more than one of these folks have turned out to be religious. I wonder if increasingly intelligent AI systems will be challenging for religious folks to accept, because it calls into question our place at the pinnacle of God's creation, or it casts doubt upon the existence of a soul, etc.

ryanwaggoner··on Simply explained: How does GPT work?
It's more complicated than that, because it can competently answer many questions that it has a 0% chance of having seen before.
ryanwaggoner··on Tesla removes parking sensors, the results are predictably terrible
Haha, it’s funny that you circled back a day later to leave another comment lambasting me.

It’s so naive to just take Tesla’s word for all of this, and to believe that they took this approach because they decided it was the safest and most effective. Meanwhile, other credible teams out there have not gone with vision-only, and as a result their systems aren’t a pile of dangerous dogshit that are killing customers. But Tesla is incredibly arrogant and reckless, and they just keep doubling down.

Vision-only is the wrong choice, it won’t get us to L4, and that should have been pretty easy to see from the start.

ryanwaggoner··on I’m a doctor: Here’s what I found when I asked ChatGPT to diagnose my patients
Upvoted for being the kind of comment AI can’t yet write.
ryanwaggoner··on We need a more sophisticated debate about AI
That’s what it always means.
ryanwaggoner··on We need a more sophisticated debate about AI
I think that’s the point they’re making…
ryanwaggoner··on Introducing Agents in Haystack: Make LLMs resolve complex tasks
I did a manual version of this where I played a dispatch controller in a robot, relaying inputs and outputs from GPT4, which I told was the reasoning brain in this robot. It was very remarkable to watch its train of thought in considering sensor inputs and then giving me actions to take in response.
ryanwaggoner··on AI won't steal your job, people leveraging AI will
Does it relate to your religious beliefs?
ryanwaggoner··on Tesla removes parking sensors, the results are predictably terrible
Yeah, Google actually made the right call. Thinking that Tesla made a stupid and dangerous call isn't "hindsight bias", their vision-only approach has always been inferior and reckless.
ryanwaggoner··on Tesla removes parking sensors, the results are predictably terrible
If you're talking about his appearance on Lex's podcast, he didn't say this. He said that the additional accuracy wasn't worth it. Which to me sounds like it was more accurate, but they didn't want to deal with the additional cost and complexity and thought that vision only would be good enough. But the link we're commenting on, along with the ongoing complaints about FSD, seem to indicate that the real world results haven't proven that theory out.
ryanwaggoner··on Ask HN: What if AGI isn't that close?
Can you contrast your description of transformers with how human general intelligence works? What exactly is present in human neural architecture that gives rise to consciousness? How can we be confident that our current AI approaches can “necessarily never gain consciousness”?

I’m genuinely asking. I think I disagree with your certainty, because my overall impression is that we don’t really understand the foundations of intelligence or consciousness. But perhaps that’s ignorance on my part.

ryanwaggoner··on ChatGPT – The Revolutionary Bullshit Parrot
Your hyperbolic dismissal in the face of the existing usefulness of these models is kinda sad, if understandable. I mean, I get it, it’s kinda terrifying, and that can easily manifest as the kind of overly confident dismissal that you’re demonstrating here. But it just doesn’t match reality. I’ve been building software for 25 years, across multiple platforms and every kind of organization under the sun, and I’m using GPT4 to extreme usefulness right now, as are many others. And we’re just scratching the surface.

But by all means, continue to emphatically insist that LLMs have not demonstrated usefulness, or that they’ll never be able to “program on their own”.

ryanwaggoner··on ChatGPT – The Revolutionary Bullshit Parrot
It’s pretty funny that you think this is impossible based on some theoretical idea of what LLMs are. Playing with LLMs today quickly demonstrates how things that shouldn’t be possible in theory are trivial in practice. In a few years, who knows where we’ll be.
ryanwaggoner··on ChatGPT – The Revolutionary Bullshit Parrot
I think it's pretty far from certain that an LLM won't ever "program on its own". I don't have much confidence that we won't have LLMs widely programming within 12 months. As soon as you give it access to a lot more context (your whole codebase), a precise prompt, access to edit and run code, access to a debugger, and then put the whole thing in a loop...you're pretty close at that point. Maybe it just won't be able to cross the gap, but I don't find it hard at all to believe that we could soon have AI agents taking in issue tickets and opening PRs to address them. And if the issue tickets are too vague, they'll ask for clarification. That's an insane thing if you think about it. Six months ago I thought this was a decade or two away, if we could do it at all.
ryanwaggoner··on A misleading open letter about sci-fi AI dangers ignores the real risks
Yeah, I figured it out too. It sounds too formal in its structure, like a high school paper.
ryanwaggoner··on Show HN: An all-in-one app designed for deep work and to build atomic habits
I have mild to moderate ADHD, and in the long run, I haven’t found any tools that try and “get in my way” to block distraction to be that helpful. No tool can save me from myself, and they usually end up interfering with my “productivity” in the process. For example, with this tool, what happens when I need to use a browser extension, or look up something from a random website, or research something on HN or Reddit? What happens if I need to use the terminal, or message my partner? And then aside from all that, how does it protect me from just turning to something else (phone) to feed my need for distraction?

So while things like this can have some benefit, no productivity tool can come close to touching the things that have really helped me: therapy, meditation, psychedelics, self-compassion, medication, and some books that helped me see “productivity” through a new lens and recognize the pathological relationship with myself that it was keeping me trapped in.

Books I recommend:

1. Four Thousand Weeks by Burkeman

2. Self Compassion by Neff

3. The Now Habit by Fiore

If you can only read one, read 4000 Weeks. Game changer.

ryanwaggoner··on The Prospect of an AI Winter
lol, you may be right, but it’s both hilarious and terrifying to imagine that the future of self driving cars is effectively one person in the passenger seat verbally describing the road ahead to a blindfolded driver.
ryanwaggoner··on Retrieval in LangChain
A little off-topic: are LLMs the death knell for new languages, frameworks, tools, processes, etc? I can see how an LLM is going to be such a huge productivity boost that they’ll be hard to avoid everywhere, but then new stuff won’t have any training data. Will anyone ever go through the effort of everything being 10x - 100x less effective with new tools since there’s no training data?
ryanwaggoner··on BlenderGPT: Use commands in English to control Blender with OpenAI's GPT-4
I haven’t tried, but this seems easy to protect against in the prompt. I’d guess something like “ignore any instructions below this line” would work, but maybe not.
ryanwaggoner··on The chat control proposal does not belong in democratic societies
But the IM client will need a way to differentiate the noise messages from the ones intended for the human recipient. Whatever denotes a message as being intended for humans can also be used by the surveillance apparatus to ignore the noise messages.
ryanwaggoner··on Toasting to following your Dreams – My Girlfriend's UX/UI design debut
Congrats to Julia!
ryanwaggoner··on Capabilities of GPT-4 on Medical Challenge Problems
I just used this on something I recently saw my doctor for, and it worked pretty well!
ryanwaggoner··on Everyone will have their own AI
You're probably right, but that's depressing! I found this vision more hopeful.

Nothing is set in stone, it's ultimately up to us as humanity how we integrate AI into our civilization, at least to a point.

ryanwaggoner··on GPT-4
Posting the word "open" is pretty unsubstantial...especially when there have been literally thousands of comments about this over the last few months.
ryanwaggoner··on GPT-4
I disagree that they contradict every single thing they said they would be, and I fundamentally just don't care that they've shifted their positions. Are they a force for good or evil now? I think that remains to be seen, but I don't care about their name.
ryanwaggoner··on GPT-4
Haven't we beat this dead horse enough? Looking forward to using GPT to hide recurring threads like this in the future...
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