2,195 karma · joined August 15, 2018
[1]: https://googleprojectzero.blogspot.com/2021/12/a-deep-dive-i...
A prediction market is a zero-sum game, and you should only participate if you expect you can beat the market, which you shouldn't expect to be able to on average. But this is not true for Metaculus, which is a prediction aggregator and can create more virtual internet points when there are more participants. So even if you don't expect to do better than the community on average, you can still earn positive points on average. You have to be really confidently wrong to get a bad negative score on Metaculus.