HNHacker News
TopNewBestAskShowJobs

rustyconover

365 karma · joined May 5, 2014

https://www.linkedin.com/in/rusty-conover-ba5a6/
submissionscomments
rustyconover··on Probabilistic Machine Learning: An Introduction
Turing.jl[1] is quite usable and isn't slow[2].

[1] - https://turing.ml/dev/ [2] - https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.02702

rustyconover··on How to Run a Live Coding Stream on Twitch Using OBS
I'd just build my own HLS setup with Cloudfront and one of those encoders with MediaLive.
rustyconover··on How to Run a Live Coding Stream on Twitch Using OBS
I think you'd be surprised how efficient video codecs with regards to bandwidth used, nobody sends raw pixels at all. Also with HLS latency can be very short with the right settings.

A few tips for coding screencasting:

For coding screencasts you should make sure that chroma subsampling isn't enabled when you're doing the encode of the video otherwise it may look worse with highly contrasting areas.

Decrease the encoding frame rate if its primarily going to be just a screencast without a lot of motion on the screen. At the expense longer mpeg segments (and more latency) you may want to increase the group-of-picture size.

There shouldn't be a reason that the encoded screencast looks worse then how it appeared to you unless the encoder you are using is just mashing the quality down.

rustyconover··on EventReduce: An algorithm to optimize database queries that run multiple times
PostgreSQL does offer insights into the plan. Just put EXPLAIN before your query.
rustyconover··on Oil is selling for less than $10 across key North American hubs
The percentage of state and federal taxes per gallon is becoming significant. So there is some floor at the pump.
rustyconover··on New iPad Pro with LiDAR Scanner and trackpad support
Top question: Is the keyboard a butterfly keyboard or is it more like the new MacBook Pro's 16 inch keyboard?
rustyconover··on Seeing the Smoke
I'm seeing smoke in the suppositions you're making so I'd like to help you.

The point estimates for mortality rate, R0 and the like all are subject to interpretation/manipulation. The health agencies have allegedly been subject to regulatory capture both in China and in the USA.

1. The communication of the CDC has changed markedly since the appointment of Pence to the head of the coordinating council. The messaging appears to be more controlled and filtered.

2. The frequent changing of the definition of what a "confirmed case" is in China leads me to completely disregard any published numbers much like other economic metrics published by China.

3. The restrictive testing conditions of the CDC likely has led to multiple cases not yet being discovered in the USA.

As a scientist I'd like to see independently reproduced results across other independent population samples. I think it is healthy to take a more Bayesian approach to these statistics, because you should let your beliefs be updated by additional data and factor in your prior assumptions.

Citing data from a single study from a Chinese health agency just isn't enough for me to change my beliefs completely, my prior knowledge is too strong when combined with everything else circulating in the political/regulatory sphere.

My personal distributions for what the values of mortality and R0 are both still have really fat long tails. But of course that's subject to change.

rustyconover··on Seeing the Smoke
Tonight after purchasing more groceries than I've bought in the last decade, I'm reflecting on how strange it felt. I've never filled a shopping cart. A grocery basket, sure, but an entire cart with the bottom shelf filled with bottled water, never.

I lived through Hurricane Sandy in NYC. That was something. But I never felt the urge to go preemptively shopping before. Food has always been in abundance and regularly available a few blocks away 24/7. Shoutout to Westside Market in the UWS. Yesterday I became convinced I needed almost a months supply of non-perishables _right now_.

Tonight, there was no other customers shopping with urgency at my local Target as I was buying six spare toothbrushes with two bottles of NyQuil and two cans of saline nasal spray along with all of the food I could fit. All of the aisles were well stocked, mostly. They were less so once I went by. There was one lady with 7 cans of lysol spray, but we just winked at each other and hurried off. I think both of us were trying to not get any more shocked glances from the people just strolling trying decide which flavor of double stuffed Oreo's to buy this Saturday night. Deep down those people know what's going on, but aren't yet ready to take action.

Sure, I'm early and feel guilty because it was so easy to get everything right now. But also feels really good to have it stocked away in my pantry. If I don't use these supplies my local food bank will get everything I don't need.

I'd like to ask of you to consider doing the same! If all of this preparation is unnecessary, there are hungry people that will appreciate it later on. If the possibility to make something good come out of this possibly tragically bad situation motivates you take some time to get ready, I'm pleased.

rustyconover··on Using ‘radioactive data’ to detect if a data set was used for training
I think most ML models aren’t very “lean”, meaning there is space in their weight layers for information isn’t directly attributable to predictive accuracy. That space is likely where this new “radioactive” like data is being “stored”/“remembered”.

The leanness could be increased during training by progressively trimming width/depth of weights, but I doubt if every model has this done.

rustyconover··on Gitlab: don't discuss politics at work
In my mind it has always been ok to talk about your politics as long as you're respectful and you respect the differences of people who disagree.

To make it against whatever workplace "rules" there are seems overbearing and thought-controlling. Our personal beliefs and political experiences make up a lot of who we are, our individual perspective on the world and somewhat how we think.

How can you hold your organization to socially responsible policies and actions if you can't discuss what should be socially acceptable? Political beliefs form the ideas of what is the scope of the organization's responsibility.

In my recent experiences at a hedge fund and a very large investment bank, politics were discussed pretty openly in both environments (alas this was only in NYC). I found the discussions worthwhile and informative as it helped me understand my own beliefs more.

It's unwise to hold beliefs that you never have to justify. You should put in the intellectual work so that you can articulate and argue your own politics it will make sure your beliefs are well founded.

rustyconover··on The Greening of Paris Makes Its Mayor More Than a Few Enemies
Having more Montparnasse-esque towers would destroy the a lot of the streetscapes created by Haussmann that make Paris so distinctive. How can you not love all of the chimney pots?

Keep the height restrictions inside of the city and continue to keep high rises near La Défense and serve them with efficient and effective mass transit.

rustyconover··on BigDL: Distributed Deep Learning on Apache Spark
It does not appear that this uses a GPU at all. Which is okay of course but may not win any speed contests.
rustyconover··on AWS Announces Microsoft Active Directory Single Sign On Services
How is this new? AWS having SAML 2.0 support is old news being demonstrated at no less than two ReInvent conferences.
rustyconover··on Hiring: The First Librarian of Congress for the Internet Age
I can only think Jason Scott[1] would be the obvious HN sponsored candidate for this position. Imagine the good he would do with the resources.

[1] - http://archiveteam.org/index.php?title=User:Jscott

rustyconover··on A web-reading bot made millions on the options market
They could make the spread wider after the first 500 contracts go off in a certain interval. Even the in the S&P outcry pit in Chicago sometimes the bid/ask spread goes wide or even no bid when things move too far or too fast for comfort. Next time a jobs number comes out or other financial data point look at the spread right before the number is released. These marker makers are survivors, if they're nervous about inventory risk they shrink size and you get thinner markets (bid/ask sizes) or wider spreads. Of course, if the options market shows something very out of sync with the underlying that is a signal that something is up or there is a market force that hasn't yet caused the underlying to move. Because an American option can be exercised anytime before expiration both options and the underlying stay pretty closely aligned with each other using the theoretical pricing model of each market maker.

I'm sure this trader has programmers working on this problem and putting in some type of limiting such that he doesn't sell off 3000 contracts in one go for a very cheap option close to expiration. 3000 contracts is nothing in SPY options but for a single name stock (not an ETF) it can be considered a sizable trade compared to the open interest.

rustyconover··on Scientists skeptical about Theranos blood test
Let us not disregard the intelligence value the NSA or another other government entity gathers by doing a low resolution DNA sequencing all of the blood that goes through these machines for future reference. This covert use wouldn't be outside the bounds of proper skepticism with the involvement of ex-DoD members on the board.

Without proper auditing and disclosure of development processes and the new implementation of the diagnostic tests on chips (rather than disposable test media) it raises the question of how can anyone be sure exactly what and what not the machines are testing and recording? Slot machines in Las Vegas have their code more closely audited and monitored than this technology.

This situation just yells out for government regulation, peer review and reverse engineering.

rustyconover··on Earth receiving mysterious radio signals
Could Elon Musk have launched something with SpaceX that is faking these signals, so he could fax down plans for Tesla's new teleporter to be unveiled at the end of the month?

Conspiracy hat engaged.

rustyconover··on Earth receiving mysterious radio signals
We just have to think like a Vegan. No meat, no dairy, no animal products. And intergalactic wormholes.
rustyconover··on Introducing “6-pack”: the first open hardware modular switch
If the people who brought me HDCP[1] are the same people that will give me a networking switch inside my television, maybe I will consider using this Facebook switch after all.

[1] - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-bandwidth_Digital_Content_...

rustyconover··on Introducing “6-pack”: the first open hardware modular switch
I get the feeling this is a bit like Bugatti building the Veyron, its super cool and impressive but the vast majority of us will never be able to or have a need to drive it.

It is still fun watch this switch go around the proverbial track, but I'm happy knowing that I'll never have to configure, build and test a switch of this complexity unless I really absolutely have to, with my largest caveat being AWS disappearing from the face of the earth.

rustyconover··on The Computer Science Handbook: First Draft [pdf]
Indeed this document could use a copy editor.
rustyconover··on CVE-2015-0311 – Adobe Flash Player Remote Vulnerability
Shame on you Adobe! Yet another hole in Flash, isn't it time to pack up your tent and move onto the dust bin of history?

Furthermore it's more shameful to release an update for the manual update users two days after the automatic update users get it. Get over yourselves already. This is already being exploited, push fixes out faster or atleast at the same time.

Steve Jobs was so right.

rustyconover··on Discovery: Fish Live Beneath Antarctica
Nice to see Montana State University showing up in this story. Go Bobcats!

The Solar Physics group has had some great work published in the past, but having the Priscu[1] group getting results like this is also amazing. Kind of funny, that they're in the College of Agriculture and working in Antarctica.

[1] - http://www.montana.edu/priscu/

rustyconover··on Uber Said to Raise $1.6 Billion in Convertible Debt to Expand
I doubt it will be the VC's bidding once it goes public, typically it will be the public and investment funds. VC's on the liquidating side once one of their investments go public so they can get their exit.
rustyconover··on Show HN: Run SSH and HTTP(S) on the same port
I wonder if you could do this with Nginx and the Upgrade header.
rustyconover··on The Perils of an All-Digital Movie Future
Apparently the authors and archivists haven't heard of tape or Amazon Glacier. I'm sure Amazon Glacier would be happy to back up their digital archives for a reasonable monthly fee. And the archivists would get people monitoring and making sure the data is accessible for free.
rustyconover··on North Korea's Official Statement
Are they trying to long troll us? tl;dr people.
rustyconover··on Rackspace DNS DDOS
Sure you can.
rustyconover··on HTML5 Video and the End of Plugins
Not in safari or iOS
rustyconover··on HTML5 Video and the End of Plugins
I doubt this highly. And if they are moving to DASH it is implemented by Flash.
← PreviousPage 2 of 4Next →