rprend

Statute of limitations kicks in at the moment of your awareness of the watch being fake. But, you and the plaintiff might dispute over the fact of when you learned the watch was fake. That’s exactly what this jury decision was about. Musk claimed he wasn’t aware of OpenAI’s for profit push until 2022. Altman claimed he was aware of it as far back as 2017 or 2019. The Jury looked at texts and emails and interviewed witnesses and decided that Musk was aware of it in 2019, which is more than 3 years before he filed the suit in 2024.

This is not true. API tokens are not sold at a loss, and hardware gets more efficient over time, so serving inference on the same model gets cheaper. LLAMA 3.1 405B parameters was $6/$12/M tokens in 2024, but in 2026 that same model is $3/$3/M tokens.

The most intelligent model at a given time is much larger than the previous, which is why token costs for GPT5.5 are higher than 5.4. But you should expect that 2 years from now, serving a GPT5.5 sized model will be cheaper than GPT5.5 today. You should expect it to be even cheaper to get an equally intelligent model 2 years from now, because distillation techniques are effective at reducing the necessary parameter count for the same benchmark scores.

That includes lunch, park bench, coffee shop to charge phone, etc, but yea. north brooklyn to coney island and back. ive only done it a few times , not 5 days a week

This is awesome. Exactly what openclaw was supposed to be. Im really impressed by how effortlessly it handles the file syncing.

My method of walking to work is back (going for an 8 hour walk , voice dictating the whole way)

the most productive teams will be the ones that treat code as compiler output (which we never read)

legacy manual codebases which require human review will be the new "maintaining a FORTRAN mainframe". they'll stick around for longer than you'd expect (because they still work) , at legacy stagnant engineering companies

Product work can be counterintuitive. An engineer / PM might think that a design or feature “makes sense”, but you don’t actually know that unless you measure usage.

I was in school when GPT came out and there is a strong generational divide. It reminds me of when i was young teachers said you couldn’t use Wikipedia because it isn’t guaranteed to be correct, but we did anyway. Same thing with LLMs. It’s a faster way to do things so eventually everything will be done that way.

What backlash against Adobe? I think you are mistaking comment section consensus for reality. People on forums and social media complain, but the comment section consensus is often dead wrong!

There was no real backlash against Adobe. They added subscriptions and grew revenue. Some people grumbled online, but they paid, which means they don’t like the old model, they like the new one.

Anthropic is a great case study in why uptime doesn’t matter. The service is so valuable that you can have one nine uptime and add $9bil ARR in 3 months.

Yep. Enthusiasts are cheap, picky, and have no loyalty. They’re extremely political and are the only type of customer who will actually switch. Plus it’s a tiny market. You might eek out $50mil revenue after a decade, if you’re lucky.

There is a hobbyist market for a tinker-phone; it’s just tiny. Like Raspberry Pi or Framework market cap vs Macbook market cap.

It is not a fantasy it is fact based on watching people buy phones.

I built a payment processor and failed. Regulations aren’t the issue. The issue is customer psychology: once a customer has solved their problem, they never switch. The biggest misconception I had is that it’s a viable business model to start a business to “compete” with an existing one (cheaper, better tech, better UI, etc). That never works.

You have to either 1. Solve the problem for a new customer who hasn’t solved this problem. 2. Solve a totally different problem than your competition. or 3. Invent a completely different paradigm for approaching solving that problem.

A good case study is search. Nobody could compete with Google, until ChatGPT. Note that ChatGPT is not just “Google but better”, but instead does (3): it’s a different paradigm for answering your questions. Even though it’s much better at solving this problem, people still don’t switch from Google. Most of ChatGPT growth comes from (1): new customers, because ChatGPT usage is highest among young people who haven’t already solved their problem and aren’t sticky with Google.

You underestimate how sticky customers are out of habit. Cable news is now an inferior product for information retrieval, but it’s sticky because it’s already there, solving the problem, for that generation.

MCP blew up in 2024, before terminal agents (claude code) blew up in early 2025. The story isn’t “MCP was a fake marketing thing pushed on us”. It’s a story of how quickly the meta evolves. These frameworks are discovered!

The best things about AI hypergrowth is the opportunities to discover of meta-frameworks and workflows. This is something Anthropic kills at (MCPs, Skills, Claude Code terminal agents).

These are discoveries of workflows. Some of them work some of them don’t. The ones that really click, they explode in popularity like OpenClaw.

Seems like OpenClaw is opening up a lot of breadth-based internet searches. Way more people are making way more scrapers, and I expect this to continue.

Yes. Stripe’s 2.9% fee minus interchange (interchange is variable, on average 1.9%) is higher than Mastercard or Visa’s take of .14%.

But it’s not so simple, because Stripe faces liability for merchant fraud. If you are high volume you negotiate IC+, where the plus is .1%-.4%.

The valuations price in expected growth as well as unit economics. Mastercard doesn’t have as much room to grow because cards already saturate consumer payments.

You’re absolutely right i didnt think of that. Isn’t this what they call velocity of money? So we’d need to calculate the “velocity of stripe” (the flow of dollars within the system).

Honestly seems reasonable to me. ChatGPT alone will be be at least as valuable as Google, plus all the enterprise adoption around API use cases.

When systems scale you have to look at the effects in aggregate. Android is a tool used to manage billions of people’s finances. If you allow unreviewed apps, people get scammed by fake banking apps.

You might say people shouldn’t be so dumb, or that we should educate them, but the fact is that it happens. If you allow unreviewed apps, people get scammed at a higher rate. If you allow a backdoor, people get scammed at a higher rate. People still get scammed with app store review, but the difference between 1%, .9%, and .8% is millions of lives ruined.

I’m a hacker at heart and I like general purpose computers, but when a tool becomes essential, it can ruin lives. You have to consider your externalities. Otherwise you are a factory dumping pollution in the river.

This debate is an interesting collision between the well being of the general public versus a tiny, elite class (hackers) and their ideology.

Stripe doesn’t power money transfers, just commerce. So 100% of stripe volume is economic activity.

Wym? Google says it’s the one to decide. They are doing this because side loading causes fraud. There is pressure and lobbying (like this open letter) to stop them from locking it down.

Walled gardens have less fraud and malware because it's less open. But developers prefer open source decentralized software. Of course, we are technologically literate enough to avoid the fraud. It's similar to drug decriminalization or the legalization of sports gambling.

I find it inspiring. I relate to the Collison brothers. They're a couple of hackers from Ireland. It blows my mind that a couple young guys like that can build something and in 20 years capture 2% of the entire world's economic activity.

need to see one of those dog button press setups but connected to Open Claw.

I was curious, and the American Clearing House has a TPV of $93 trillion, which means ACH is 78%?? That seems too high.

Oh - not all bank transfers count in GDP. I often move money from one account to another.

Note that Visa has the same issue: withdrawing money from an ATM shouldn’t count towards GDP! Neither does Vemo-ing a friend to settle up a split restaurant bill (my Venmo is attached to my debit card).

This multiple is indirectly a bet on AI growth , because Stripe is the payment processor for the vast majority of AI startups.

Not all revenue is equal. Payments is interesting because the processor’s growth is directly tied to the growth of its customers. Stripe captures the vast majority of high growth SF startups. Stripe has better customers.

1.6 percent of global GDP blows my mind.

Damn, this is the first thing to make me decide to try Codex, as a loyal Claude Code user.