rocha

My understanding is that the current estimated IFR from those studies (NY specially) is between 0.6% and 1.2%. I think flu is around 0.1% (however I am not sure if that is the CFR or the IFR). The second factor to consider is the attack rate, how many people are likely to get infected. For flu is around between 10% to 15% of the total population, while for Covid it is, potentially, larger than 80% (no natural immunity and no vaccines). It is however unlikely that it will reach that level given the current containment and mitigation measures. But if it reaches something like 40% (double of the latest NY estimate), it will mean covid is between 16 to 48 times deadlier than the flu.

I thought it was between 0.5% to 1.0%, at least according to the NYC study: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1253436656742305793

Yep, I agree with you. I was trying to make the point that massive transportation is not the only factor at play. Like you said, there are many others that should be considered.

In my opinion it is more likely that the main cause is that the infection got here very early, and that the mitigation and containment measures started very late in comparison with cities of similar size and density (Seoul for example).

A counter argument is that the same didn't happen (or hasn't happened yet) in cities that also have massive public transportation systems like Tokyo or Seoul. There is probably many confounding factors, such as mask use, no talking on the subway, etc, to make pointing to one particular factor very hard.

EDIT: typo

They have been trying to sell, but none was buying. The closer you get to the expiration date, the lower you are willing to go to sell. Since contracts expire tomorrow, traders are willing to go all the way to avoid getting physical delivery.

The comparison between the two countries is so difficult. The population of Iceland is around 360K, while South Korea is over 51 million (~140x). The population density is in the same order, 3 per Km^2 to 500 per Km^2 respectively (~160x).

My understanding is that the main transmission medium is respiratory droplets.

You are correct. The estimates are taken from the confirmed cases. I just wanted to point out that it is easy to dismiss the risk service workers are taking if you only look at the fatality rate. The hospitalization rate seems to be one or two orders of magnitude higher.

Edit: grammar.

I didn't imply they should shut down. I just wanted to point out that the risk that the workers are taking is significantly higher if you take into account how likely they are to get seriously ill. Their protection should be prioritized.

Hospitalization rate is hovering between 10% and 20%

Edit: source https://covidtracking.com/data/

Thank you

If nothing is done, the least privileged will suffer the most due lack of access to health services and a financial safety net.

Note that in both cases there is a selection bias, due poor testing, and having the majority of initial reported cases being severe enough to reach hospitals. In my opinion, South Korea has better data, due to massive testing, and not having a completely overwhelmed health system. The rate there is 0.6%, which is still significant.

Probably means 4M assuming that no containment measures are taken.

Like someone said on twitter, “In the end, it will be impossible to know if we overreacted or did too much, but it will be QUITE apparent if we under reacted or did too little.”

Can you elaborate? Thanks.

Not sure how relevant it is, but influenza (flu) and common coronaviruses (common cold) are not in the same family. Anyways, it seems like it is not a good idea to speculate, even the viruses have closely related:

https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-o...

I saw different numbers, ~0.6% with good medical care(SK), 2-4% with poor medical care (Early stages in China).

S&P 500 Futures are already down 3%

The individual risk is low, but the systemic risk is high. Please try to understand that. Health services could be overwhelmed if more than 5% of the population gets infected in a short period of time (at a 5% hospitalization rate).

"Masks are NOT THE MOST useful thing you can do..."

Individual risk is low, systemic risk is high. With the current the current numbers, the hospitalization rate is over 5% (critical cases). If the infection reaches 10% of the US population, it will require 1.5M hospital beds. Currently there are around 1M, at +60% occupancy.

1918

From my experience, most of the packages listed there with TODOs have basic support with some extras, but are lacking documentation and testing. For example rust, supports syntax, formatting, lsp or racer, cargo and other goodies.

[citation needed]

I agree. I think it is unrealistic to check the "political correctness" of everything you use. But in this case, because of their own advocacy, you know now where they stand. In my case, I would prefer to not get involved, and avoid if possible, to use their project.

It is not that surprising if you try to put yourself in someone else's shoes. Would you feel comfortable using and contributing to their project if you belonged to one of the groups they appear to despise?

Do you think that the current pharmaceutical prices in the US are the result of fair market valuation?

Me too please.

Here is an account from a person I know: http://www.e-flux.com/announcements/103020/an-open-letter-by...