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robertwiblin

3,654 karma · joined May 27, 2014

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robertwiblin··on Ending factory farming as soon as possible
Yes this is a problem, though also serious for 'clean meat'. :)

Interestingly, consumers are more likely to try out vegan products if they don't say they're vegan on the front of the package...

robertwiblin··on Ending factory farming as soon as possible
Couldn't the old owners just open new factory farms and outcompete the now-free range ones by being cheaper?
robertwiblin··on Ending factory farming as soon as possible
Hi Richard - the nutritional information is listed on their FAQ: https://www.impossiblefoods.com/faq/

They've made it similar to ground beef I think.

robertwiblin··on Ending factory farming as soon as possible
We talk about that a bunch! I agree, though it's possible before that we'll figure out how to combine plant products in ways that make them taste very similar to meat. Impossible Foods is already impressively close.
robertwiblin··on Why the long-term future of humanity matters more than anything else
It's a very subtle issue I can't go fully into here. I agree with a lot of your concerns. Personally I would usually go for cost-welfare analysis rather than cost-benefit analysis, which resolves many of the problems you're concerned about.
robertwiblin··on Why the long-term future of humanity matters more than anything else
We're pretty negative about discount rates in the scheme of things. We have a paper on this which outlines why we think discount rates are worth using in some kinds of situations: https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/sites/givingwhatwecan.org/fi...
robertwiblin··on Why the long-term future of humanity matters more than anything else
We discuss a few concrete examples of this around the cold war in the episode! :)
robertwiblin··on Why the long-term future of humanity matters more than anything else
That's one of the topics we discuss! :)
robertwiblin··on Why the long-term future of humanity matters more than anything else
I meet people who disagree with this all the time. And clearly even if we think it, as a species we aren't acting on it.
robertwiblin··on What the literature says about the earnings of entrepreneurs (2016)
I contributed to this research - interested to hear your thoughts!
robertwiblin··on A data science investigation of IMDB, Rotten Tomatoes, Metacritic and Fandango
Can anyone explain why he preferred a lower correlation with Fandango scores as a tie-breaker between Metacritic and IMDB? I couldn't follow the argument that a lower correlation shows Metacritic has more reliable results.
robertwiblin··on Which job skills are most employable?
We'll fix this going forward.
robertwiblin··on Investigating a ten-year-old estimate that “most social programmes don’t work”
"4 Reasons Why The Answer To This Complicated Social Science Question is More Subtle Than You Think - The Conceptual Clarification in 3 Will Shock You"
robertwiblin··on Investigating a ten-year-old estimate that “most social programmes don’t work”
I'm one of the authors of this post - look forward to hearing you comments!
robertwiblin··on The Social Justice Warriors Are Right
It's great to see someone who, despite facing personal criticism from a group, is still able to praise out the strongest points they have to offer.
robertwiblin··on Evidence-based advice we've found on how to be successful in a job
Yeah turns out they're upgrading their web interface so we can't change any of our settings. Keep saying it will be fixed any moment...
robertwiblin··on Evidence-based advice we've found on how to be successful in a job
I don't think we actually have affiliate links! :) Maybe we should...
robertwiblin··on We read all the research on which charities to give to, so you don’t have to
I actually think it's a good thing for charities to spend more on fundraising than they do - it's a harmful metric to judge them by. Here's a discussion of that: https://www.ted.com/talks/dan_pallotta_the_way_we_think_abou...

However, IIRC all the fundraising and admin costs are covered by separate donors so that any additional donations go to nets. AMF doesn't have much of a fundraising operation as it gets its funding through GiveWell and Good Ventures primarily.

robertwiblin··on We read all the research on which charities to give to, so you don’t have to
I'm the author - Charity Navigator isn't very useful because it doesn't tell you whether the program delivered by the charity actually helps people, which is by far the most important and most frequently lacking factor. The only thing CN is useful for is identifying outright frauds, and even then it's not amazing.

As you can see GiveWell has investigated AMF including its finances in vastly more detail over 4 years than Charity Navigator has ever investigated anyone: http://www.givewell.org/charities/against-malaria-foundation

robertwiblin··on What are the odds of one vote changing the US presidential election?
I wrote this post! I had to cut back a lot of analysis to keep it manageable but very interested to hear people's thoughts on its strengths or weaknesses.
robertwiblin··on Evidence on how to find the right career
The evidence from postiive psychology is clear that pursuing a goal greater than yourself (that is, trying to help others) is associated with higher levels of happiness and fulfillment, so it's sensible to follow that path even if you are purely selfish: https://80000hours.org/career-guide/job-satisfaction
robertwiblin··on Evidence on how to find the right career
Hey Cookiecaper - yeah there's something going on making our appeals not show for some people. For better or worse I'm trying to fix that. :)
robertwiblin··on Evidence on how to find the right career
Hi Cup - our career guide is explicitly focussed on "talented young graduates." We would shift the focus a bit for different audiences (more on financial security for example). Though that's already implicit in our discussion of the point at which money stops increasing happiness.

But actually if you read on the career paths we recommend in the career guide involve developing highly practical and marketable skills. We just think that turning those valuable skills towards improving the world will provide people with fulfillment in the long term.

robertwiblin··on Evidence on how to find the right career
Hey bcherny, we also love So Good They Can't Ignore You, and discuss its findings in part 3 of our career guide: https://80000hours.org/career-guide/career-capital/

We also interviewed the author of 'So Good' about their latest book just 2 weeks ago: https://80000hours.org/2016/08/is-deep-work-the-most-underap...

Here are our extensive thoughts on the job satisfaction literature: https://80000hours.org/career-guide/job-satisfaction . I think it's a pretty fun read. :)

robertwiblin··on Evidence on how to find the right career
Hi Cup - yes you're right, what people are looking for in their career is complicated and varies by people.

This is part four of our career guide; the first article is all about what actually creates job satisfaction: http://80000hours.org/career-guide/job-satisfaction . I think we say everything you said on your comment, and a lot more.

While people are varied, there are a few factors identified in the psychological literature that are highly predictive of overall job satisfaction and fulfillment for most of us. :)

robertwiblin··on Show HN: Why the most popular ways to do good in careers aren’t best
1. What do you define as "good"?

We explain that here: https://80000hours.org/career-guide/how-much-difference-can-...

2. What do you define as a "good career"?

We explain that here: https://80000hours.org/career-guide/job-satisfaction/

3. What do you consider as a "hugely positive impact on the world?

Helping a lot of people in a really significant way!

robertwiblin··on Show HN: Why the most popular ways to do good in careers aren’t best
Thanks for your support tgb! I hope you enjoy the newsletter. :)

The full article is indeed quite long and nuanced. Figuring out the best thing to do with your life can't be reduced to really simple slogans.

robertwiblin··on Show HN: Why the most popular ways to do good in careers aren’t best
Most people in the US, UK and so on are in the top 10% of global incomes: https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/get-involved/how-rich-am-i/

Some people in developing countries would have paid for Windows too, but they would have been unusually rich to have computers when Microsoft was raking it in. And from my experience in developing countries, Microsoft software was pirated almost 100% of the time.

robertwiblin··on Show HN: Why the most popular ways to do good in careers aren’t best
Yeah we use the expression 'do good in your career' because it requires few characters, and in titles we often have to explain what we are about in under 60 characters!

As dianeb says, I think how to have a successful career would actually be 'how to do well in your career'.

robertwiblin··on Show HN: Why the most popular ways to do good in careers aren’t best
Gates mostly earned money by selling products to people in the top 10% of global incomes - products they willingly bought. Most of his philanthropy has gone to people in the bottom 20% - people who earn a hundredth as much as people typically buying Microsoft software. Read more on this: https://80000hours.org/career-guide/how-much-difference-can-...

I think he intends to give away most of his money before he does - like 90% or so.

As for why the Foundation was started in 2000 - Microsoft wasn't making much money before the 90s so there wasn't much to give. Judging by Microsoft's share price, Gates only truly got rich after 1997.

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