rmitsch

I'm surprised this isn't being talked about more. Sure, one could favourably assume that OpenAI just needs a little ad-powered financial push to finally hit AGI and solve every single problem under the sun, but that'd be a reach. It seems more probable that their internal evaluation of their ETA to AGI diverges starkly from what they communicate externally.

Yeah, the latest wave of Opus 4.5, Codex 5.2, Gemini Pro 3 rendered a lot of my skepticism redundant as well. While I generally agree with the Jevon's paradox line of reasoning, I have to acknowledge it's difficult to make any reasonable prediction on technology that's moving at such immense speed.

I expected the LLM's would have hit a scaling wall by now, and I was wrong. Perhaps that'll still happen. If not, regardless of whether it'll ultimately create or eliminate more jobs, it'll destabilize the job market.

There's no amount of evidence that'll help. We have had a sufficient amount of that for a long while. It's entrenched economic interests fostering a lack of political will that's keeping us from taking this seriously.