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riphay

241 karma · joined February 17, 2016

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riphay··on The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]
Link to the keynote presentation, fills a lot of the gaps in the slides: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7_e_A_vFnk
riphay··on Lyft Crashes Below IPO Price
The banking syndicate takes on some risk in order to facilitate trading in a successful IPO. Usually to compensate for this risk the IPO price is (slightly) less than what they believe the stock will trade at. This way the IPO investors and the banks can make a bit of money for bearing this risk.

It's usually seen as unsuccessful and a bad-news story when a stock falls below its IPO price. Even though Lyft might have taken the max from investors, it will diminish its ability to raise further equity and its bankers will lose the trust of the IPO investors.

riphay··on China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling
Yes, but they are paid by the importer and (usually) passed on to the consumer. In effect they become a subsidy for local industry paid by consumers.
riphay··on Tesla Faces U.S. Criminal Probe Over Musk Statements
Long is short-hand for anyone benefiting from the price of the stock rising. This includes people who own the stock outright, have bought on credit, own call options, have sold put options, etc.
riphay··on Apple's best product is now privacy
I think his point about the "happy accident" is that iAds failed and that's part of why Apple is now "pro privacy."
riphay··on Poaching Tesla
My point was that I don't think there's a ton of productivity to be lost by smoking 1 puff in the middle of the night vs. smoking a whole joint in the middle of the day.

The "X" in this case has too wide of a range of interpretation to jump the gun on hypocrisy.

riphay··on Poaching Tesla
You're absolutely right; but I have a hard time believing this depresses stock valuations with so much smart money out there (by ~20% no less!).

Otherwise I think there's a serious market opportunity to be exploited.

riphay··on Poaching Tesla
He took one puff of weed on a casual podcast at ~11 p.m. local time. Not certain this is the canary in the coal mine some people are making it out to be... but I guess volatile stocks will find reasons to be volatile?
riphay··on How to be a Manager – A step-by-step guide to leading a team
Great article, bookmarked for future reference!

I work for a small consulting firm focused on improving productivity and building innovation systems within small-medium sized businesses. And having strategic plans, vision, values is hugely important in building a focused innovation program. It's become routine in my engagements to spend significant time defining goals and values where the companies had none previously! This sort of exercise is valuable for firms at any stage and size in my opinion.

riphay··on Keurig to Acquire Dr Pepper Snapple in Largest Soft-Drink Deal Ever
When one company buys another it has to assume it's debt.

Enterprise value = equity + debt - cash on hand (and other adjustments sometimes)

So if a company has financed its growth with debt, you still have to pay for that if you're acquiring them so it adds to the valuation.

riphay··on Amazon is in exploratory talks with generic-drug makers
Couldn't agree more. Reminds me of the concept of the "company store" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Company_store)
riphay··on Building A.I. That Can Build A.I
This is really great. I actually struggled to find ML solutions for a large relational data set at a previous employer. Ended up figuring out a way to flatten the data, but was not ideal. Glad that people are working on this, keep it up!
riphay··on Some Excel users pop F1 off their keyboards (2012)
Former banker, and to this day I remove the F1 key from my keyboards because I still use excel heavily. Never really crossed my mind to remove winhelp.exe or anything else. This was a simple solution to a simple problem, didn't need anything more complicated.

And if I ever need to access the help function, I'd just stick a pen in the socket and hit the membrane.

riphay··on Ford disguised a man as a car seat to research self-driving
Really interesting study, would have liked to see some preliminary or even anecdotal findings discussed in the article.

I've seen some Youtubers pranking drive-through windows in the same way and they're pretty funny at the very least.

riphay··on Most Female and Male Occupations Since 1950
Seems to be a few as other comments have pointed out. But the female labour-force participation rate at the start of the dataset would make it difficult for individual job categories to switch from majority female to male over this particular time span.
riphay··on iPhone X
This is a great point, and why I'd like to see more features being locked without a passcode. The move in iOS 11 to restrict device imaging without a passcode is a great step in this direction.

Perhaps we can see more customization as to what biometrics unlock and what they don't?

riphay··on AI Playbook
This is a great point, and I think I fall into that bucket you describe. I have just enough information to be dangerous.

There does seem to be a lack of available tools even for someone with a well-defined problem with available labelled data to validate implementing machine learning to a problem. I think that there's a need out there for a software with a GUI that can accept data and let you try some ML approaches with it and take the coding out of it - and it doesn't seem like it would be insanely difficult to build.

riphay··on India Is Winning Its War on Human Waste
Don't mix up "Romans" and "Europeans." A better question is if the residents of Rome and other cities that had public facilities went back to the bucket or if they continued to use and maintain the public toilets. The rest of Europe likely never had public facilities to begin with, and the fall of the Empire might have delayed that technology transfer I suspect.
riphay··on The Cavendish Banana Will Soon Be Gone
For those who want to take a deep dive in the world of bananas, great article about what different people are trying to do about the problem (from 2011):

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/01/10/we-have-no-bana...

riphay··on Why Are Ultrasound Machines So Expensive?
Previous discussion:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11156288

riphay··on No Evidence of Aloe Vera Found in the Aloe Vera at Wal-Mart, CVS
I think that misses the point of the comment. You don't establish confidence in a system by just ignoring it and doing it yourself. If you take your logic to its natural conclusion, we should all just farm our own food as it's the only way to trust it.
riphay··on Battery technology may emerge as a trillion-dollar threat to credit markets
I used to work in energy corporate finance, and this feels like a pretty alarmist article to me for a few reasons. My logic runs as follows: - The trillions in credit are issued by a wide array of energy companies running the gamut from production, to energy infrastructure, to utilities, etc. - When a company is getting credit, the term is significant to the pricing of the credit. Riskier companies tend not to have access to long-term debt (10 years+); this tends to be open only to companies with more secure revenue streams (utilities, refineries, etc.) - By projecting to 2040, the article assumes creditors won't have a chance to reprice the mosaic of debt many times over until then. Riskier companies may lose access to credit completely (as we've seen during the current downturn in oil prices), while others will have to pay a higher price for their debt. - If the projections are accurate, this market will simply shrink in step with the overall market shrinking. And if past disruptions are any indications, it will be replaced by battery / EV companies needing credit and suddenly looking a lot less risky. - The world doesn't end. Did I miss anything in my logic?
riphay··on Uber self driving car drives on the wrong side
Obviously lots of work to do for all the players in the autonomous vehicle game. And I actually like Uber's approach to testing: get lots of miles of testing while being paid to do it by your customers. Clearly not a cash positive venture but it's still a cool business model.

I'm wondering if the autonomous vehicle industry will fight for market share along the lines of which company's software platform is better. Will consumers who buy such a car be looking at safety records as much as comfort and looks? Will we end up seeing "Ford Fusion powered by Uber" vs "VW Golf powered by Apple" etc.? Maybe we end up with only a few platforms that fight for market share, like Windows vs Mac and Android vs iOS.

riphay··on How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil
Mostly this is a question of transportation. You can't put heavy crude in a pipeline or on a tanker until it's been diluted with lighter hydrocarbons like condensate.
riphay··on Chinese Billionaire Linked to Giant Aluminum Stockpile in Mexican Desert
It could be well within the Chinese government agenda to have broader control over global productive capacity. Impossible to prove, I know.

Generally I'm pro-free trade, but the issue gets quite messy when you consider government subsidies. As a Canadian, this discussion comes up frequently along the lines of the subsidized agriculture sector.

riphay··on “1984” was a parody describing an extream society – now its not far from reality
Not in copyright anymore in several countries, including my own (Canada) [1]. Kind of interesting question about treatment of works on the internet with differing copyright laws across borders.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nineteen_Eighty-Four#Copyright...

riphay··on Canada’s $6.9B Wildfire Is the Size of Delaware and Still Out of Control
> Calgary was also the provincial stronghold of the NDP

Correction: Edmonton is the stronghold of the NDP. Premier Notley's seat in the Legislature is in Edmonton's Strathcona riding, and I believe before last year Edmonton was the only city to elect NDP MLA's. Calgary has always been a Progressive Conservative stronghold.

riphay··on The death of neoliberalism from within
We're seeing more and more of these types of articles coming up, but they're all talking about different aspects of the same issue: inability to share growth with wide swaths of the population. In the west, our quality of life has never been higher and products/services have never been cheaper. This has been caused in large part by automation, lean manufacturing, globalization, etc. and each one of these is net positive for society. The problem seems to be that it's become difficult to share these gains with labour in the classical sense; and our society, taxation system, social contract are all based around this meaning of labour.

When I see articles about: - Austerity, - Wage growth, - Universal basic income, - Death of middle class, - Rise of right-wing parties, - Anti-free trade lobbying, - Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders; I read all of them with same lens. I know my knowledge of economics is medium at best, but I'm starting to look twice at ideas such as UBI. Maybe there needs to be a rethink of the Western social contract around labour.

riphay··on Tesla Model S autonomously crashes into a parked trailer while in ‘summon’ mode
The difficulty will be in assigning responsibility for these accidents. Will autonomous car manufacturers carry the insurance burden for their software or the consumer? Will insurance companies have to evaluate whether vehicles have been "jailbroken"?
riphay··on Tesla’s bioweapon mode is a stroke of genius for developing markets
This is true, however the generating stations are located much further away and have a smaller impact on smog in cities.
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