rhetocj23

With all due respect, Im not here to teach people how to think.

This guy gets it - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxLCTA5wQow

Instead of plainly jumping on the bubble bandwagon he actually goes through a thorough analysis.

Yeah they are all over the place and this should be a huge red flag.

Some marginal investors know this but they are okay because the music is still playing - but when they think its time to leave the bubble will pop.

People seem to forget that its not about whether or not its actually a bubble, its really about when will certain people who set these stock prices for valuations, decide its time to exit and take their profit.

The problem is OAI has very firece competition - folks who are willing to absorb losses to put them out of business.

Uber and Amazon are really bad examples. Who was Amazons competition? Nobody. By the time anyone woke up and took them seriously it was too late.

Uber only had to contend with Lyft and a few other less funded firms. Less funded being a really important thing to consider. Not to mention the easy access to immense amounts of funding Uber had.

But google and amazon were obvious to those in the know, in terms of what they delivered.

S Jobs called it back in 1995-97 - he referred to it as shopping for information and shopping for good and services.

Nobody has this crystal clear, tangible vision re. LLMs. Nobody at all. That is a big problem.

I found the interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqSfFcaluHc&t=1700s

Thats not true actually.

The technology - for what it is being used vs what is invested - does not match up at all. This is what happened to the dot-com bubble. Theres was a whole bunch of innovation that was needed to come to bring a delightful UX to bring swathes of people onto the internet.

So far this is true about LLMs. Could this change? Sure. Will it change meaningful? Personally I dont believe so.

The internet at its core was all about hooking up computers so they they could transform from just computational beasts to communication. There was a tremendous amount of potentitial that was very very real. It just so happens if computers can communicate we can do a whole bunch of stuff - as is going on today.

What are LLMS? Can someone please explain in a succint way...? Im yet to see something super crystal clear.

Personally I think people should stop trying to reason from the past.

As tempting as it is, it leads to false outcomes because you are not thinking about how this particular situation is going to impact society and the economy.

Its much harder to reason this way, but isnt that the point? personally I dont want to hear or read analogies based on the past - I want to see and read stuff that comes from original thinking.

The problem is they are dealing with a stealthy giant in Google who is not a sleeping giant like those in past disruptions.

Google will have an incentive to destroy OAI financially through whatever means and make it difficult for them to raise future money since they are not generating enough free cash flows (to the firm) from their operations after reinvestment.

OAI going after Meta/TikTok with Sora will also be a strategic blunder in retrospect I believe.

wow that energy lol!

Exactly. The opportunity set isnt large.

The best play for all portfolio managers is to froth up the stock price and take their returns later.

Everyone knows this a bubble but the returns at the end of this of those who time it are juicy - portfolio managers have no choice to be in this game because those who supply the money they invest on their behalf, demand it.

Its that simple.

Its always a relief to read posts like these on here amid the noise.

The mistake you and many others are making is assuming that it is algorithmic.

Humans are not intrinsically machines. Through the education system and so on, humans are taught to somewhat behave as such.

The hucksters will tell you the variance in the cashflows is exactly why they are pursuing AI - real options.

Lol this is crazy.

I seem to remember the latest tools for software developers were pushed in the business organisation by the developers - and eventually the folk at the top relented and accepted it.

When the reverse is happening, alarm bells should ring.

But hey, Im not against these CEOs destroying the culture within the firm and making their employees hate their guts, resulting in negative productivity gains.

Forget about that.

Lets focus on the tech firms that produce software.

Two things should happen if AI proliferates into software development:

1) Increasing top line - due to more projects being taken by enabling labour to be more productive 2) Operating margin increasing - due to labour input declining and taking more cost-reduction projects

If those 2 things dont occur - the AI investment was a waste of money from a financial perspective. And this is before I even discount the cash flows by the cost of capital of these high-risk projects (high discount rate).

At some point everyone will be analysed in this manner. Only Nvidia is winning as it stands, ironically, not because of LLMs. But rather because they sell the hardware that LLMs operate on.

Nonsense. You know full well there are humans behind the production. Even in an animated movie, there is a human voice.

Yeah but forget about that.

Why do people watch movies? Theres a whole lot more going on than just someones image.

My comment, to my surprise, has received a lot of up-votes lol.

Completely agree. The way I think about life is - how will people look back 50 years from now, and make remarks about what is happening?

Tastes and preferences are dynamic. It will certainly happen.

"It really seriously appears as of no one at any of the AI video generation research teams has any professional media production experience, or even bothered too look at existing media production data standards,"

I had to chuckle at this. Because the arrogance of OAI et al will finally get them in the end when these projects continue to be negative NPV.

Ah the great trade off that comes with little to no regulation.

Precisely.

I have a really big problem with letting low quality stuff infest into the species.

This is going to sound crass but idc - OAI is just full of geeks, when what is needed is people who are more akin to hippies - thats pretty much what Apple was in the early days.

Its no use building technology when its not married with the humanities and liberal arts.

This is absolutely horrible.

People need to be exposed to what is real. Not more artificial stuff.

I think this is the point at which humanity will finally puke and reject this crap.

Just because a small segment of people like it doesnt mean the mass majority will.

Yeah I get that. But you gotta feel filthy. But I guess overtime those people become so desensitised to it they just dont feel it.

That makes sense.

The segment of the population that is suffering from brain rot is gigantic. This is the segment Mark Zuckerberg loves.

In his own words: "dumb fucks".

Junk food has a similar effect on the brain - without exercising proper discipline it has a catastrophic effect on productivity.

Millions? Thats peanuts dude compared to what OAI is proposing in future requests of funding.

The return policy yes but moreover, its the speed. They intensely focused on making sure that speed of delivery combined with choice of selection would be incredibly attractive for many purchases via the internet.

"I have some anecdotal evidence that suggests that we can accomplish far more value-add on software projects when completely away from the computer and any related technology.

It's amazing how fast the code goes when you know exactly what you want"

Yeah its the same reason why demand for pen and paper still exists. Its the absolute best way for one to think and get their thoughts out. I can personally attest to this - no digital whiteboard can ever compete with just a pen and paper. My best and original ideas come from a blank paper and a pen.

Solutions can emerge from anywhere. But its likely to happen when the mind is focused in a calm state - thats why walking for instance is great.

Nah that comparison doesnt make sense.

There is certainly real market penetration with LLMs. However, there is a huge gap between fantasy and reality - as in what is being promised vs what is being delivered and the effects on the economy are yet to play out.

Lol doesnt bother me. I know only 5% of people here are the real gems and thats what Im here for.

If you know of a better place on the internet LMK!