rhetocj23

It’ll be the greatest episode of sunk cost fallacy 5 years from now.

Yes. Revenue is a proxy for value created in the economy. Profit is a proxy for value created for the owners (equity shareholders).

Thats it.

Im a bear of LLMs, doesnt mean I havent made money off it.

I have. Intrinsic valuation and pricing are not the same thing.

Assuming chatgpt is an input to those projects - how are those projects going to see ROI given that OAIs focus now is to be profitable through its own ventures?

OAI all over the place and doesnt seem to have a direct thing its focused on executing, which only makes the idea of a bubble more real.

Lets assume AI has worked out. Can you point me to the effect on earnings of the customers of said AI tools who have publicly disclosed the affect on earnings because of said tools?

Thanks.

And then people turn around and hand-wave that away by saying: But youre assuming that the development of LLMs stop and they wont be able to address that problem.

Like Okay, it sounds like a valid point. The issue is the hand waving and the fact it is not grounded in reality.

That’s exactly how it works.

Well that’s the core idea - build an environment of hungry folks who don’t quite know how the world works and suck all that you can out of them.

Indeed. This is something that isn’t said a lot.

A person who has been in an industry for 10+ years will be fine from exposure to LLM’s. Because they already built the discipline. Frankly if you’re an expert I don’t see where the value of an LLM fits.

People keep talking about productivity increases. But that just speaks to the quantity. What about the quality?

It’s tiresome to see people who just don’t get this.

Indeed. Youre one of the few posters ive seen on here that gets it.

Theres a phrase for this. Financial engineering.

Yes it’s a wealth transfer from existing amd shareholders

That’s exactly it. Their only competitive weapon is brand name right now and they are using that for all its worth

Financing made out of thin air. Hilarious

Im not sure why you got downvoted for that.

Ive noticed similar shenanigans with Uber eats - they are definitely playing around with stuff to increase profitability its clear as day.

ZZZ show something or stop posting fella.

Instagram is a product of a/b testing. Go figure

Curious to know how you conducted the investigation? What was the sample size etc?

So you have nothing to show. Typical

I hate to break it to you, but this is besides the point.

The marginal investor is the price setter, you, I and everyone else are just price takers in the market.

If enough marginal investors decide assets are over-valued, you have no choice but to accept it.

Yes there is a very real trade off between labour and capital.

In the past the tradeoff has been very straight forward. But this is a unique situation because it involves knowledge and not just the physicality of the human in regards to productivity.

Go ahead and post what youve done fella so we can critique.

Why is it all these kinds of posts never come with any attachments? We are all interested to see it m8.

The UK govt is full of bozos who just dont get quite it frankly. Frankly theres no good alternative either, its a crap shoot overall.

This is a whole bunch of noise, the reality is the only thing matters is adoption. The UK has tried pushing some form of digital ID for years, and its led to nothing. The old traditional means of verifying oneself has continued to be the way, and will be the way, until the ID is coupled with tremendous economic benefits for which folks are happy to adopt it.

Exactly. I really hope Altman gets whats coming for him.

None of us should be surprised. This joker has zero respect for the artistry of humans.

It may be true that OAI et al are raising money in private markets, but does that matter? Ultimately they are still just raising money. Ultimately returns need to show up. You cannot escape that. If you cannot do that nobody will eventually supply the funds to keep operating.

The big advantage of staying private is controlling the narrative.

Bad comparison.

The leap of faith necessary in LLMs to achieve the same feat is so large its very difficult to imagine it happening. Particularly due to the well known constraints on what the technology is capable of.

The whole investment thesis of LLMs is that it will be able to a) be intelligent b) produce new knowledge. If those two things that dont happen, what has been delivered is not commensurate to the risk in regards to the money invested.

Someone I know uses chatgpt a lot. Not because they find it incredibly valuable. But because they want to stick it to the VC's funding OAI and increase their costs with no revenue.

So this is why you have to be careful about usage numbers. The only true meaningful number is about those who are contributing towards revenue. Without that OAI is just a giant money sink.

The costs are a weak argument. The more stronger argument for why they arent going public any time soon is that OAI in particular is a corporate governance nightmare, in which the way they transmit information about their firm and financials will have to completely change.

Theres also plenty of money washing around in private markets so no need to go public. Staying private is an advantage.