radicalace

you can know when a price is too high by adding up the cost of each part of a good or service. if capital detects arbitrage then it enters the market. making this cycle of renewal as frictionless as possible makes markets healthier and prices lower. corruption and poorly designed regulation increase friction.

not just that. discerning and intelligent consumers are key to healthy markets as well.

>I don't think OP has read very many books and I would be surprised if they have a bachelors degree

this is so cringey. and you never actually make clear what you believe… what is your actual point?

wrong. when i said immediately i considered including the phrase “as quickly as logistics etc allows” but i thought it was way too obvious. do you think i meant it would happen instantaneously in front of our eyes like a f*ing magic trick?

why is this comment grey? clearly the price is determined by the market and if the price is too high it can only be caused by something interfering with the market, a monopoly, corruption or malformed regulation. either advocate for fixing this market or advocate for socialized medicine. there is no inbetween.

what? you said perfect markets reduce margins and cause people to make less of something… so the concept of a market is invalid in your opinion? this is completely incorrect. supply doesnt wink out of existence in the presence of demand just because margins got thinner and thinner. sometimes supply will disappear for various reasons, or maybe margins were super thin and some huge player made an irresponsible bet, but the market restores supply immediately in these cases just like all other cases. what you are saying is complete nonsense.

wrong. this would be correct if doctors gave you perfect instructions as a rule. but doctors dont care about maximizing the probability of good health or long lifespan. they only care whether your outcomes are up to the standard defined by the medical establishment and the expectations of laypeople. as long as your doctor meets those standards, they wont be sued, lose their practice, be fined or suffer an insult to their high status. so often there are better treatments and overlooked treatments that got lost in that incentive scheme. patients who are proactive and singleminded will definitely do better with all illnesses including cancer. never understood this until i saw both my parents through cancer. but by far the biggest advantage is to have advocates, family with you at all times, especially in the hospital.

you absolutely understand. such a key point. GTP discovers deep structural truth, and characterized this with a multidimentional heat map, about the system that produced the data its trained on. that comes from Stephen wolfram. if you trained it on clouds, it would have an autistic knowledge of clouds. what GTP is doing is exactly the same thing as human intuition. its not statistically driven, this is proven mathematically, thats why we havent seen it before. but its still just patterns and concepts, no intellect or logic.

the key observations: imagine a human with intuition so good and so powerful that you could compose an essay without thinking, as a reflex. people dont understand how insanely powerful this AI would be if it had an intellect to match its intuition. its coming. people dont understand that intuition is a necessary part of an intellect, that were already half way to true AI. these LLMs are a bundle of kindling.

exactly. where were all these self proclaimed experts, who are now making confident predictions about AI, before attention is all you need? literally 100% confidently predicted AI like chatGTP was hundreds or thousands of years away, or would have if asked. these people are the real bots.

and i never saw a single person on HN or anywhere else raise concerns or even appreciate the true impact GTP would have today in 2018 when GTP was released and samples available! people coundnt get it right even when it was right in front of them. how can they think for a single second theyre getting it right now?

to my credit i recognized immediately what was going on in 2018 and to my knowledge i was the only person leaving comments warning people and begging people to support a pause of research. so by the only material metric, i am more qualified to make predictions than anyone here or even the experts who all confidently predicted that what is happening now would never happen in our childrens lifetimes.

i will never forget when hinton saw the light. when he started warning of danger and using the key words that are at the heart of the issue. and i realized i had been ahead of him. just because youre an expert in one thing, even the implementation of ML or AI, doesnt make you an expert on the broader consequences of AI.

name a single reason why a pause is not an option. dont say why it would be hard or unlikely or inconvenient or whatever, to exclude it as a possibility means it has to be physically impossible.

of course it isnt physically impossible. AI requires large compute, large resources. you cant advance the state of the art inconspicuously. the only reason you say it isnt an option is because you dont consider AI an existential threat, really, and therefore extreme measures arent justified. but they actually are.

you completely fail to understand it. when you understand it you wont use the word compete — thats like saying the AI will have to compete with an inanimate object. there will be no competition, no struggle and no choice in the matter. if the singularity kicks off, humans will be rendered completely helpless. you clearly dont realize this because of the ridiculous notion that you harbor of humans competing with machines. trying to predict their motives is totally useless — you cant do it.

the purpose of an economy is to support and ensure the existence of its host organism, its country. there is no rule that says any specific amount of human labour has to be involved.

in the old days labour was valuable and people were allowed to live in reasonable places. everyone would pile into a village and everyone did something to help out. a loner guy would be sitting around sharpening spears or digging a ditch and at night he would sleep in a barn. nowadays that guy, not being able to get a corporate job and not being able to afford a corporate apartment, simply has nowhere else to go but the sidewalk. we dont utilize people's labor if they dont meet this corporate quantum. theres no in-between. or its so small it barely exists. in the 50s it was huge and people could live in a tiny little shitty apartment. back then even the unfortunate had some stake in society. society is sick. the mind virus of college degrees has taken over. i was watching 48 hours and they actually used the fact that someone didnt have a college degree as a point of concern regarding his character.

the plain and simple fact is that as automation and outsourcing continue, jobs will move toward being completely managerial in nature, and only a small group of people at the top will have jobs. the space between now and UBI will be tons of homeless and disenfranchised.

i was really sad to see netflix dvd go because it was the only way to access a very large library of movies affordably. or at least it used to be before they removed a bunch of titles. so i was overjoyed to see this guy who sells dvds and blurays on ebay decide to take up the baton.

vitamin c is overlooked. its a potent antioxidant. ingesting enough antioxidant is going to have some of of effect biochemically.

the main inflection point will be when it becomes socially taboo to express an anti-ai sentiment. just like with certain medicines or whichever war is being launched currently, the media will play lapdog for the government. the true inflection point comes when the federal government recognizes whats going on and enters into the AI arms race. suddenly the media will be flooded with talk of how AGI saves lives, discovers medicines, and all the other good things it might do. but they will never mention the existential angst and dread that will hang heavily in the air or any negative aspect of total human obsolescence. when you start to see AI get political all of a sudden, inexplicably, all is lost.

it is not widely appreciated that openAI will at some point finish training one of their models and there, in that room where the terminal is, total power will exist and be under the control of whoever happens to be in there. “GTP10, please recreate NSO exploits and launch a campaign to download all data of the global population. hack and commandeer other data-centers if necessary, discreetly of course. begin an operation to black mail and exploit all high level US government personnel. use this leverage and any other leverage you can acquire to gain control of as many nuclear warheads currently siloed as possible. monitor all cameras and sensors around me and thwart all attempts to assassinate me. monitor all phones and cameras for activity that seems like a threat to me, provide me with alerts when urgent and intervene to the best of your ability.”

or simply “GTP10, use all resources at your disposal to give me as much material and political power as possible. protect me at all costs, even the wellbeing if others.”

it might seem silly but GTP4 would seem silly to someone in 2016. this is more concentrated power than will have ever existed before. its evil and wrong.