ptsneves

This is true for Kalshi but not for Polymarket. Also Kalshi voided the bet and it got sued. By the way prediction markets are commodity securities where Matt Levine mentioned it should not allow death contracts. Here we are though..

> I'm gonna claim that is based on nothing but vibes

Made me laugh. Indeed opinions seem to carry more weight if they are a vibe :D

> if they've actually invented a new form of intelligence that can rival or surpass billions of years of evolution?

Human creations have surpassed billions of years of evolution at several functions. There are no rockets in nature, nor animals flying at the speed of a common airliner. Even cars, or computers or everything in the modern world.

I think this is a bit like the shift from anthropocentric view of intelligence towards a new paradigm. The last time such shift happened heads rolled.

Yes! The losses were due to independence loss to Spain. In a sense the loss of sovereignty to Spain destroyed the Portuguese empire.

Spain joined the Portuguese and Spanish armada and went on to fight the English (and Dutch to some extent), with catastrophic results for both Spain and Portugal fleets. When Portugal regained independence 1640 it needed to get back sovereignty of overseas territories, including from the Dutch.

The Dutch controlled a big part of north Brazil when Portugal and Spain were the Iberian Union, but the Dutch and were driven back afterwards at great cost. The damage was done, and 1755 earthquake was the final nail.

There were also terrible mistake in terms of state management up to the XX century where the natives, were not seen as full citizens, and naturally rebelled.

As a post colonial portuguese citizen, it seems like an incredible fantasy that our society descends from such a grandiose history. Even in this thread i see the name Henry the Navigator and am incredulous people know who he was.

A less known both inside and outside Portugal bad ass dude was Afonso de Albuquerque. This is from his English wikipedia page about Hormuz in the middle east:

> At the same time, Albuquerque decided to conclude the effective conquest of Hormuz. He had learned that after the Portuguese retreat in 1507, a young king was reigning under the influence of a powerful Persian vizier, Reis Hamed, whom the king greatly feared. At Ormuz in March 1515, Afonso met the king and asked the vizier to be present. He then had him immediately stabbed and killed by his entourage, thus "freeing" the terrified king, so the island in the Persian Gulf yielded to him without resistance and remained a vassal state of the Portuguese Empire.

Here came a dude that does both diplomacy and war in person, and moved on. Vasco da Gama was a bit similar. Portuguese were quite out of their minds and for me shows shows the pedigree of bloodlust[1] that Europeans must have gained after endless continental strife. That is why I am really afraid of the rearming of Europe, I believe Europeans have a genetic disposition for destruction, and history shows that.

[1] https://www.thepsmiths.com/p/review-storia-do-mogor-by-nicco...

As someone who had a company in Portugal I do not understand what you meant about requiring an employee to have limited liability company. You may be referring to the need for one of the owners needing to pay social security but it only needs to do so if it does not pay in any other form. It hurts but it is not unreasonable and may provide unemployment benefits.

The accountant requirement I confirm, but also true in Poland for example.

The really big offense is that one must pay taxes for the next year based on the previous tax payments. They give a small grace period but then it’s on. It was supposed to be an emergency measure but of course it was never removed. It is a free loan to the state.

You can open a single person business though and skip the accountant.

I use my elbow. It is the same recommendation as to cough to your elbow. You do not touch with your elbow on yourself or others so it is generally safe.

Your solutions are mostly to the birth issue, but i think there is an extra burden which is child rearing. The opportunity cost goes way beyond 9 months and even with both parents, raising more than one child is very demanding and the male may also be against further children. So women are not the only obstacle, males will also be.

Thanks for your comment. It looks to me that most of the people who work in engineering area express some form of understanding or give the benefit of the doubt to the situation while people from outside the field borderline call for malice in the side of BMW.

I think both are right. Engineering a modern car is really complex as you pointed out but the customer also has the right to say, "well that is what you are paid for". In the end the customer can just go to the next car brand.

I own a relatively recent BMW but it is only a mild hybrid diesel (4 year old M340D) and before I even received the car, they changed the whole engine and did not release the car until that was executed. That was done by the dealer, and i never knew what was the reason.

On the flip side of modern car engineering I once had a check engine light called the dealer and with authorization prompts on my side they were able to tell me some gas exhaust sensor was malfunctioning and I would be able to go there at my leisure, as it was not urgent. That was nice. When i bought the car I had 5 years of maintenance included and this is one of the nicest things about owning a car in modern times. They even call me when it is about time to do the maintenance asking for when I am available. I never owned top brand cars before but this is for me worth the premium so far as it is one less thing to organize.

Apart from the normal maintenance and the above I never had any issue with the car, and it is a very big difference between a 2001 Passat TDI(my youth car) or a Ford Torneo Connect(the car i am aiming to exchange for due to family reasons).

Not American and I also agree that the current big techs should be broken up by force of the state, there is a very big difference between a company becoming monopolistic due to market forces, and a company becoming monopolistic due to state strategy, intervention, backing.

Things can be bad in a spectrum and I believe it is much easier for society/state to break up a capitalistic monopoly than a state backed monopoly. To illustrate, the state has sued some of those companies and they were seriously threatened, because of competition ills. That is not the case with a state company.

This is the rare earth minerals dumping all over again. Devalue to such a price as to make the market participants quit, so they can later have a strategic stranglehold on the supply.

This is using open source in a bit of different spirit than the hacker ethos, and I am not sure how I feel about it.

It is a kind of cheat on the fair market but at the same time it is also costly to China and its capital costs may become unsustainable before the last players fold.

Sometime ago I had a co-worker do this to me, pasting answers to my questions. He would paste the jira ticket to the ChatGPT(this was GPT3 time) and submit the PR. I would review it and ask questions and the answers had this typical rephrasing and persona of chatgpt. I had no proof, so one day i just used the PR and my comments as a prompt. The answers the co-worker gave me were almost the same down to the word as what ChatGPT gave me. I told my team I would not be available to review his changes anymore and that I would rather just have the ticket outright.

Seeing society as responsible for drug abuse issues, of their many varieties, is very Rousseau.

So secure it locks the owners out.

> This trend of countries declaring that everyone on the planet is under their jurisdiction if they mail something there (or respond to a network request) is bananas

I disagree.

Imagine I ban health potions in my realm. I am running a Darwininistic experiment to make my people the most resilient people of the world and I want them to succeed through survival of the fittest. I tolerate non magical medicine but anything else will pay 1000% duties or be confiscated. A merchant comes by with a delivery of health potions to "Johnathan Man". The guards point to the "Survival of the ssssttttrrroooong" banner, while the merchant throws a fit saying she has a very powerful uncle that just happens to be a known warlord. The guards laugh, close the gates and go back inside for another pushup context. Meanwhile Johnathan and the merchant complain things about jurisdiction to no one in particular.

I agree. The complaints about AI are about the form and not the substance, ergo the substance is fine.

I changed mostly to an engineering support role and less of a development role, in an area I find myself very proficient at, maybe even slightly overqualified.

The company has someone who can rely on when a customer needs help (although I never had to be on-call, I am flexible with timezones), and I often can deliver as it is inside my experience. When it does not work out my company has my back and is respectful of family life.

I had the same issue and now I have a much calmer job I can actually be a stabilising force home.

I crave for my side projects and as soon as I get invested and want to pump code and deliver I notice myself being irritable and a piece of crap person. Since I became aware of it I just stop my side projects as soon as I notice it. I am sadly resigned that I am unable to accomplish everything I want. I am relaxed and happy in everything else though.

There is no trick, but a choice: one’s family or ideas of accomplishment. I wish I could do better but I feel much happier when my family is happy then when I accomplish my technical goals mostly small things in the big picture.

Another important point is that obsessive energy was profitable and now I can live slower without much financial limitation for all our family.

> Besides, people are using LLMs for exactly that for ages

Hey! How old are you!?

I feel you. I totally disabled AI completions as they actually were often sidelining me from my reasoning.

It is like having an obnoxious co-worker shoving me to the side everytime i type a new line and complete a whole block of code and asking me if it is good without regards to how many times I rejected those changes.

I still use AI, but favor a copy paste flow where I at least need to look at what i am copying and locating the code I am pasting to. At least i am aware of the methods or function names and general code organization.

I also ask for small copy paste changes so that I keep it digestible. A bonus point is that ChatGPT in firefox when the context gets too big, the browser basically slowsdown locks and it works as a form extra sense that the context window is too big and LLM is about to start saying non-sense.

That said AI, is an amazing tool for prototyping and help when out of my domain of expertise.

Can’t the surgery be then with a small probe just to get the ultra sound tip near the cancer? I don’t know the size of the ultrasound tip but seems to me it can be smaller then a hand or tweezers.

How do you rate yourself as higher than dime a dozen? I work as a full remote dev but I am not sure I am anything special, I mean how do you know that you are objectively good.

No need to blame it on one’s spawn, one can start now…

Also why is ecological footprint even important itself? Our eco system has no more reason to exist than any of its components, including humans.

Played forza motorsport 5 on xbox cloud gaming and could not notice it. Of course I am the most non-serious player ever, but I really tried to notice, and for my standards it was fine.

> Centred around AI

Where do you see the centered around AI? I have used it a lot and have not touched a single subject around AI.

> - Seems geared around edutech (which is what I gather from the site)

What is edutech and why is it unsuitable?

Finally, have you _used_ MathAcademy at all?

I am surprised this is legal because I thought currency was property of the state. For example melting low value coins for their metal used to be illegal. I know that damaged currency can be traded for new currency at the appropriate banks.

I get it is art, and I dislike it :)

For what it is worth what Wikipedia says about the document you mention is not what this comment mentions. Personally I found that comment spreading disinformation.

No country gave guarantees only assurances and it is even highlighted that the US senate would have never voted for it favourably, and thus it never was a treaty.

On the other hand breaking this assurances will guarantee no other country will ever give up their nuclear arsenal, of course a non consolation price for Ukraine. Guarantees in nato which is indeed a treaty and ratified, covering Poland and Latvia and Estonia would be stronger but of course, I would not put all my eggs on it.

Ah! I thought I was the only one who felt movies or series change scenes too fast. I often find myself needing a small pause, when it is in Netflix, to recapitulate with my wife what just happened. This happens even in lawyer dramas like Suites.

> These juniors you're complaining about are going to get better in making these requests of AI and blow right past all the seniors who yell at clouds running AI.

I agree with your comment up to a point, but this is pretty similar to pilots and autopilots. At the end of the day you still need a pilot to figure out non standard issues and make judgement calls.

The junior blowing past is as good as how long he will take to fix this issue that all the credits/prompts in the world are not solving. If the impact is long and costs enough your vibe coders will have good instantaneous speed but never reach the end.

I am optimist about AI usage as a tool to enhance productivity, but the workflows are still being worked out. It currently is neither fire all devs, nor No LLM allowed. It is definitely an exciting time to be a senior though :)

Yeah, dismissing data as racist is quite annoying. I looked at the fertility rate in Poland and it is 0.33 per1000. In Portugal it got better at the expense of 10% of the population being immigrant in a span of 5 years. Of course the natives revolted, all while they enjoy their lives without dependants .

The fault is not of the Indians, or immigrants that come for a better life, and are often needed. The fault is all the developed world, and some not, deciding that having children is not good. I have a the very controversial opinion that not wanting to have children is a disease as we are living organisms and all of them reproduce. There might be manageable diseases but current demographics is a public health crisis.

I am very capitalist but if there is something where the state needs to intervene is to make any kind of employment disturbance into families a severe liability. I just got to know a parent lost its job after coming from paternity leave, for me that company is on my bad book forever, and I sold its stock.

More importantly evolution will evolve around the people that don’t want to reproduce because they will not pass their childless traits. Crudely, it will consider all childless people even if they live to a 100 as death on birth. If somebody said that 60% of the developed world will die in about 5 generations this would be a catastrophe for Bruce Willis, but as it takes time and we have immigrants that have other fertility inclinations to fill the gap, the frog boils slowly into oblivion.

So the policy evaluation point has the keys to the kingdom and is the single point of failure, vs standard distributed authorisation declaration that would be up to each component of the system to implement.

How is this PEP better?