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predictmktegirl

164 karma · joined November 4, 2019

I'm crazy and no one wants to be my cofounder. My life consists of researching and experimenting with information markets in a rented hermit cave. Living on ramen has destroyed most of my internal organs, but I persist with the dream that one day I will build something that no one uses but my mom. You can find me on Twitch streaming to no one or on Twitter with 0 followers.
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predictmktegirl··on 6th Generation Stealth Fighter: Joint Effort by UK, Japan, Italy and Sweden?
How does a “6th generation” fighter still have a human inside? What’s so generational about it?
predictmktegirl··on Using PostgreSQL as a Data Warehouse
$0.5 queries?
predictmktegirl··on John Cleese Sells the Brooklyn Bridge as an NFT
It's like you get to pay to be part of a joke with John Cleese. I think it's worth something too.
predictmktegirl··on Ask HN: Is startup PTSD real and possible?
I shut down a successful, profitable startup once because I realized it was growth capped and I didn't want to spend the rest of my life doing it. By many measure it was a success, but I spent almost 3 years in utter depression for not being the next Larry Page or whatever rock star technical founder.

I think it all comes down to expectations. Whatever they are, if you one day wake up and realize you will never fulfill them, it can break that dreamer part of you in an unexpected way. That startup abyss some people talk about is real and feels like shit.

predictmktegirl··on Californians aren’t leaving the state en masse but are leaving San Francisco
We left about 9 months ago. I'm not going to pontificate and judge people. From our point of view, the policies seemed to be designed to incentivize us to leave, so we left. We'll miss SF, but we were never welcome.
predictmktegirl··on Aquafaba
I always assumed that the water packaged with can beans would have tons of lectin seeped from the beans and therefore should be discarded. Is it safe to use?
predictmktegirl··on Smart contracts on Bitcoin
Honestly, I like the idea, although I'd prefer a pure L2 for security rather than a sidechain, which is what this appears to be. Unfortunately, I don't think this is a tech problem. How do you get the devs to move en masse from Ethereum back to BTC? The network effects are just so enormous, it feels like a catastrophic failure needs to happen to Eth at this point.

I'll check it out and play around, will never say never. I'm just generally skeptical of sidechains because why can't Eth just be a sidechain to BTC, or various incarnations of the same end like atomic swaps, BTC collateralization, etc?

predictmktegirl··on ‘Tokenized’: Black Workers’ Struggles at Coinbase
People treat you with contempt and ridicule if you complain about being unfairly treated. They hide behind objective processes that give cover to be biased. If process A, B, and C are objective, A+B+C can still yield terrible, biased outcomes. Witnesses and data simply doesn’t matter without empathy and understanding.
predictmktegirl··on An upcoming story about Coinbase
We didn't accuse anyone of being racist. Just sharing our disappointment. When that disappointment is so widespread that the NYT is writing an article on your company, it's more than a coincidence, no?
predictmktegirl··on An upcoming story about Coinbase
Yes, after employees walked out.
predictmktegirl··on An upcoming story about Coinbase
They walked out because he wouldn't say, in private, that black people's lives mattered. It was simply outrageous to see that in this age. Do you really think it is political to say that a human's life is important, in private?
predictmktegirl··on An upcoming story about Coinbase
[edit: Not going to risk retaliation for my family, not sure why I bothered]
predictmktegirl··on Coinbase Pro Disables Margin Trading
Kraken is destroying them in margin/derivatives and their margin product is quite bad. Not saying there is a relationship, but it is a good trade for Coinbase if Kraken has to shutter theirs as well.
predictmktegirl··on CBP Refuses to Tell Congress How It Is Tracking Americans Without a Warrant
I disagree. Let's move fast and break things. Status quo is not going to improve our welfare in either the literal or policy sense. Economically speaking, immigration is the most profitable policy decision a government can make.
predictmktegirl··on Foxconn’s empty buildings, empty factories, and empty promises in Wisconsin
The story was certainly interesting, but the lack of conciseness was brutal.
predictmktegirl··on Umami: Self-hosted open-source alternative to Google Analytics
Doesn’t using the website id in the hash mean the key is no longer PII since it can’t follow you between websites? Or is being identifiable within a single site enough the threshold?
predictmktegirl··on Oatly: The New Coke?
I'm not convinced that Oatly is so tremendously bad, all things considered, and I forgive a little marketing-speak so long as they are being honest and forthcoming when engaged. That being said, I find the amount of "good for you" literature and products out there to simply be overwhelming. Do I want to know about what I put in my body? Sure. Do I want a PhD in nutrition? Umm...

There is a simple rule I follow which I, probably erroneously, call the Law of Nature. If you want to trust what goes in, make it yourself and make it with whole foods that you can see and touch. Why is a food refined? To make it easier to preserve, store, and transport or to modify it's consistency, taste, or nutritional characteristics. 99% of these refinements lead to a product which is less nutritious for you and likely bad for you in some way. Indulge occasionally but realize that most forms of modern food refinement is not natural, and our bodies have evolved over tens of thousands of years to efficiently consume what occurs in nature. If you need a lab or the bacteria doesn't seem to manifest magically, it doesn't meet my definition of natural.

I know this basically sounds like a Paleo plug, but my purpose isn't to define a practice you should follow. My main problem is information and deception. I don't have time to vet an entire grocery store of products, so I trust my evolution as a default. I want to feel comfortable and confident about what I consume rather than building an ideology out of it.

predictmktegirl··on Palantir Announces Confidential Submission of Draft S-1
It’s hard to watch the stock market right now as an underpaid employee at a pre-IPO unicorn. Who else here is desperately hoping the next S-1 post is about their company?
predictmktegirl··on HSBC moves from 65 relational databases into one global MongoDB database
And it’s gone.

(Sorry)

predictmktegirl··on Shopify Goes Digital by Default
I can easily eat $1000 worth of KIND bars in a year, if they're free!
predictmktegirl··on US blocks shipments of semiconductors to Huawei
I think we should all keep something in mind before we go celebrate the end of globalization. If we go on a rampage pulling manufacturing and capital out of China while simultaneously blaming them for the pandemic, in a few years we’ll end up seeing a nation with a shattered economy, a pissed off populace, and the largest and most well supplied army on Earth. Rhetoric tends to devolve into a limited decision matrix when we should be trying to expand the tree instead. Diplomacy works, anger doesn’t.
predictmktegirl··on For $39, Frontier Air Will Let Passengers Keep Their Distance
As usual, if you want to be healthy, you pay extra.
predictmktegirl··on US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M
Not sure it makes any sense to be prepared for anything when FEMA will just raid your inventory and send it to a donor-lead private company for "efficient redistribution". Someone will get 100x, just not you. Our entire system of governance is revealing itself to be deeply flawed if corrupt leaders are tasked with crisis management. We need changes in both governance as well as preparation.
predictmktegirl··on Seattle’s leaders let scientists take the lead, New York’s did not
At the time, that was enough for "only" two doublings in cases at the projected rate of spread.
predictmktegirl··on Hospitals Tell Doctors They’ll Be Fired If They Speak Out About Lack of Gear
We have a unionist running for president but the electorate doesn't seem to want that at the moment. I think we're witnessing another symptom of growing inequality. Several billionaires such as Ray Dalio have rightly remarked that this is a dangerous and potentially destabilizing development in our society. What is most troubling to me is that it appears we would rather blame others instead of trying to solve the underlying issues.
predictmktegirl··on Some Churches Are Still Packing in Crowds
Your right to swing your fist ends at my face. We need to start handing out fines to those who willfully put other lives in danger. I recall reading that in the Spanish Flu pandemic, police in San Francisco fined those in public not wearing masks. Enjoy your freedoms, just not at my peril.
predictmktegirl··on Amazon Prime delivery delays are now as long as a month
I ordered a replacement toothbrush and a dutch oven to bake my own bread. Not really essentials but I feel like they are serving the purpose of health and isolation.
predictmktegirl··on Tesla appears to defy Bay Area shutdown, plans to operate Fremont factory
Part of me wants to say, "oh we've overreacted a bit, we should keep working while observing safety precautions like distancing and hygiene." The other part of me is doomsayer permabear saying that even giving humans the chance to mess something up will result in catastrophic failure. At the end of the day, I certainly wouldn't want to be the one responsible for killing someone's mother or father.
predictmktegirl··on Ask HN: Starting over after business failure
Well I am still in computer engineering, but I've always considered that engineers always have a "minor" in whatever discipline in which they are working. Of course you can be a generalist web-dev; however, anything more interesting usually requires specialization into either a technology or domain.

To answer your question, I used to be an engineer more focused on front-end work, UX, and design. These days, I've gone back to my educational roots in economics and mathematics and moved more towards ML and prediction markets.

predictmktegirl··on China Bans Americans Working for WSJ, NYT, WaPo
It's difficult to have compassion and empathy without discussion. These sorts of maneuvers tend to have horrifying butterfly effects.
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