28 karma · joined July 22, 2021
“This is a sign of OpenAI’s weakness”
I think this is the third time I’ve seen this exact comment at the top of a HN post about an OpenAI announcement.There is a weird amount of emotional investment in not wanting OpenAI to win.
Personally, I am just excited to see what the device looks like. The prototype must be good to justify this valuation.
I cannot stress this enough: if you know what Deepseek, Claude, Mistral, and Perplexity are, you are not a typical consumer.
Arguably, if you have used a single one of those brands you are not a typical consumer.
The vast majority of people have used ChatGPT and nothing else, except maybe clicking on Gemini or Meta AI by accident.
This is pretty common across industries. The leader doesn’t compare themselves to the competition.
>They even acknowledge that the correlation could be due to a factor that isn't being accounted for.
Related to this, they're performing a regression between Airbnb prevalence and crime, but they only control for a single variable: income[0]. They look at others in a robustness check, but a single control variable practically screams p-hacking.
They also don't address the fact that both Airbnb prevalence and crime are nonstationary[1]. Regressing two nonstationary time series results in a nonsense coefficient[2]. Two totally unrelated time series will have a high coefficient if both exhibit consistent trends.
[0] "We report the results based on using income as the main tract-level control variable"
[1] They are consistent trends over time, see https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/07/stationary....
[2] https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/94723/using-non-st...