pmw2007

Well, there's a lot behind Egyptian food problems beyond trade policy. That's a really deep issue and quite interesting on its own.

I merely mean that economically the supply side is harder to manage at a board/national level than the demand side. Has a lot to do with many many producers but only a few companies able to import.

Management boards have not worked historically. One example might be the Australian Wheat Board. A second example is the Canadian Wheat Board.

On the supply side production management has not proved successful that I'm aware of.

The demand side is a little different. Egypt is the world's largest importer of wheat and GASC (basically the same as the production boards but for buying) has generally been one of the best traders. They're good for the most part. They're generally clever.

Free markets work best in my personal opinion. But for production side I don't see broad-scale management working, while on the consumption side it actually can work.

This is Financial Times, so paywall.

https://www.ft.com/content/0b02085d-d5b2-351d-81a2-1135025d0...

But google 'Bunge agriculture industry consolidation' (to be clear, I have no association with Bunge)

The entire global food system is getting squeezed and restructured. It's not just US farmers. But this is a real issue. This news is not fake.

That's all I mean to say.

Yes.

In 2008 and 2011 there was shortage (weather issues) and price spikes. Farmers around the world -- from Ukraine to Brazil to the US -- made a huge amount of money and invested in technology (new farm equipment, better seeds, etc).

In the meantime the weather globally has been perfect. Beyond specific local situations worldwide it has been perfect and the technology has only added to production.

There will be a problem in the future but the reason American farm bankruptcies are high is that the prices are beyond low and the production levels are lagged (they're based on past conditions and take time to correct). Currently it's beyond bad for large scale producers.

This is an actual issue. In the future the failure of producers now will lead to shortage ... and so begins a new cycle.

I'm a global grain trader living in Geneva Switzerland, where somewhere around 50% of global raw food materials are traded.

Trust me when I say this is real.

There's been a massive over supply of agriculture products around the world for the past 3/4 years.