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pera

11,729 karma · joined June 5, 2012

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pera··on Ask HN: Why there are still no signs of increase in productivity anywhere?
I also wanted to add a bit more context regarding some of these claims.

For example, back in March Dario Amodei, the CEO and cofounder of Anthropic, said:

> I think we will be there in three to six months, where AI is writing 90% of the code. And then, in 12 months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code

Other similar claims:

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/23/tech/google-study-90-perc...

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/29/satya-nadella-says-as-much-a...

Some of these AI predictions seem quite unlikely too, for example AI 2027:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43571851

> By late 2029, existing SEZs have grown overcrowded with robots and factories, so more zones are created all around the world (early investors are now trillionaires, so this is not a hard sell). Armies of drones pour out of the SEZs, accelerating manufacturing on the critical path to space exploration.

> The new decade dawns with Consensus-1’s robot servitors spreading throughout the solar system. By 2035, trillions of tons of planetary material have been launched into space and turned into rings of satellites orbiting the sun.32 The surface of the Earth has been reshaped into Agent-4’s version of utopia

pera··on Sora 2: Licensing is all you need
Yeah that's my understanding as well: unfortunately laws seem to only apply for us peasants...

One difference though is that for Spotify removing pirated files from their servers was trivial, while for LLM companies like OpenAI and Google they would have to retrain their models from scratch, which would be extremely expensive, so what they do instead is to filter problematic results that are too obvious.

pera··on Governor, AG and Mayor Denounce Unauthorized Troop Deployment to Oregon
Original title: "Governor Kotek, Attorney General Rayfield, Mayor Wilson Denounce Unauthorized Troop Deployment to Oregon"
pera··on Britain to introduce compulsory digital ID for workers
But then the government should also know where to find all these unauthorised workers, I can't imagine how could anyone pull this off for more than a couple of months without getting arrested (or at the very least losing their job)
pera··on Britain to introduce compulsory digital ID for workers
Is this a real thing? It would be essentially identity fraud and having more than a couple of jobs linked on PAYE at the same time would likely raise a flag somewhere in the government
pera··on Britain to introduce compulsory digital ID for workers
But it would need to align with the records associated with their NI number no?
pera··on Britain to introduce compulsory digital ID for workers
I am quite confused by this point:

> A new digital ID scheme will help combat illegal working

If you are an immigrant you already have to prove your right to work with a share code:

https://www.gov.uk/prove-right-to-work/get-a-share-code-onli...

And if you claim to be a citizen you must show a passport or birth certificate:

https://www.gov.uk/prove-right-to-work

So how exactly will this new digital ID help "stop those with no right to be here from being able to find work"?

pera··on Abundant Intelligence
The US is the second most energy-hungry country on Earth (the first one being China, a country that accounts for almost 30% of the global manufacturing output), so I think it's better to compare it against the rest of the world:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electri...

Every country bellow the top 40 has a consumption lower than 87.6 TWh per year, that includes developed countries like Finland and Belgium, so yes, 10 gigawatts is a lot of power.

pera··on OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems
10 gigawatts sounds ridiculously high, how can you estimate the actual usage? I guess they are not running at capacity 24/7 right? Because that would be more than the consumption of several European countries, like Finland and Belgium:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electri...

pera··on Meta’s live demo fails; “AI” recording plays before the actor takes the steps
There is a second part that is equally bad, but with Zuck:

https://old.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1nkbqyk/...

pera··on EU court rules nuclear energy is clean energy
This is the main reason why I am, generally speaking, against nuclear as a universal solution.

A question for pro-nuclear folks: Would you be okay with having a highly corrupt low HDI country building nuclear facilities (conversion and deconversion, enrichment, power plants) next to your borders?

pera··on Anthropic agrees to pay $1.5B to settle lawsuit with book authors
On top of that this was just one case in the US. It's honestly a bit ridiculous how some Americans seem to believe that when one random judge from their country rules something that instantly turns into an international treaty that every country on Earth must accept.
pera··on Coinbase CEO Revealed He Fired Engineers Who Didn't Use AI Tools
I friend of mine works for a company that forces engineers to use LLMs for everything: what you can do is to use the LLM to transcribe code just to reach certain level of API usage so to keep the CEO happy.

By using this method you can achieve 100% of code "written by AI", although they won't see an increase in productivity.

pera··on Evidence that AI is destroying jobs for young people
Dog whistling is trendy and celebrated nowadays, specially around tech bros: they fucking love it
pera··on US stocks fall as bond sell-off spills into equities
Sorry about that, I can't edit it anymore but this is the article:

https://www.ft.com/content/cf711815-09dc-4ef3-8bb7-de6b7cb1f...

pera··on Survey: a third of senior developers say over half their code is AI-generated
This submission was written by the marketing department of a company with commercial interests on the given topic and with almost no information about the "survey" itself, it's essentially blogspam.
pera··on Survey: a third of senior developers say over half their code is AI-generated
It would be nice if we could avoid blog posts like this with extraordinary claims but nearly zero methodological information written by a "content marketing manager" from a company that sells AI products.
pera··on Are OpenAI and Anthropic losing money on inference?
Copy laundering as a service is only profitable when you discount future settlements:

https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/anthropics-surprise...

pera··on Google Head Calls Trump Admin's Climate Denialism "Fantastic"
https://archive.is/mdi9x
pera··on Silicon Valley is pouring millions into pro-AI PACs to sway midterms
There's simply too much money involved, investors and corporations will do literally everything they can to keep this going...
pera··on Introduction to AT Protocol
What do you mean? WordPress already supports ActivityPub through their plugin:

https://wordpress.org/plugins/activitypub/

I follow a few blogs on Mastodon just fine (for example John Carlos Baez's Azimuth, https://johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com/), it's just like an RSS reader in your timeline.

pera··on Say farewell to the AI bubble, and get ready for the crash
This is Altman before the release:

OpenAI's CEO says he's scared of GPT-5

https://www.techradar.com/ai-platforms-assistants/chatgpt/op...

Sam Altman Compares OpenAI To The Manhattan Project—And He's Not Joking About the Risks

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sam-altman-compares-openai-ma...

This is Altman after the release:

Sam Altman says ‘yes,’ AI is in a bubble

https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/759965/s...

pera··on Say farewell to the AI bubble, and get ready for the crash
I just don't get why did Altman had to hype this release so much, what was the plan?

Also, what was the deal with all those mysterious Star Wars pictures?

pera··on Anthropic's CEO says in 3-6 months, AI will write 90% of the code (March 2025)
I still remember this one from 2016 very well:

A Driverless Tesla Will Travel From L.A. to NYC by 2017, Says Musk

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/driverless-tesla-will...

pera··on UK government states that 'safety' act is about influence over public discourse
Since this is in relation to "Category 1 services" of the OSA:

> Category 1: should apply to services which meet either of the following conditions:

> Condition 1 – uses a content recommender system; and has more than 34 million UK users on the user-to-user part of its service, representing around 50% of the UK population;

> Condition 2 – allows users to forward or reshare user-generated content; and uses a content recommender system; and has more than 7 million UK users on the user-to-user part of its service, representing c.10% of the UK population.

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/online-safety/illegal-and-harmful-c...

pera··on Claude says “You're absolutely right!” about everything
The problem is that the majority of user interaction doesn't need to be "useful" (as in increasing productivity): the majority of users are looking for entertainment, so turning up the sycophancy knob makes sense from a commercial point of view.

It's just like adding sugar in foods and drinks.

pera··on The surprise deprecation of GPT-4o for ChatGPT consumers
I am not sure which heartless comments you are referring to but what I do see is genuine concern for the mental health of individuals who seem to be overly attached, on a deep emotional level, to an LLM: That does not look good at all.

Just a few days ago another person on that subreddit was explaining how they used ChatGPT to talk to a simulated version of their dad, who recently passed away. At the same time there are reports that may indicate LLMs triggering actual psychosis to some users (https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/delusions-b...).

Given the loneliness epidemic there are obvious commercial reasons to make LLMs feel like your best pal, which may result in these vulnerable individuals getting more isolated and very addicted to a tech product.

pera··on Perplexity is using stealth, undeclared crawlers to evade no-crawl directives
Like many other generative AI companies, Perplexity exploits the good faith of the old Internet by extracting the content created almost entirely by normal folks (i.e. those who depend on a wage for subsistence) and reproducing it for a profit while removing the creators from the loop - even when normal folks are explicitly asking them to not do this.

If you don't understand why this is at least slightly controversial I imagine you are not a normal folk.

pera··on OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation
Yeah by 2001 Amazon was already cash flow positive.
pera··on A major AI training data set contains millions of examples of personal data
I think you may be missing the point: The title says "AI training data set", which is the result of downloading the linked images. The list of tuples is just how this training dataset is distributed.

The issue in question is that many/most large generative AI models were trained with personal data.

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