120 karma · joined January 31, 2011
Thank you.
Also, I feel compelled to point out that you can get a Porsche, or Lotus or whatever and feel pretty cool with your francy sports car. Or you can get _several_ top of the line motorcycles for the same price. Just sayin'
Your project will involve plenty of time and effort at other stages than the plywood cutting bit.
Still, I'd consider getting one (perhaps on v2 after the Kickstarter has played out, and v1 gotchas figured out). It is cheap enough to get "just for fun."
But as you point out - computer scientists don't know what people want _either_, so.. predictive power itself is not necessary for a thing to work.
But _working_ isn't sufficient either. Facebook _works_. As I understand it is WILDLY profitable. But the way it works is a matter of economics and social sciences. Building a social networking website is a SOLVED PROBLEM in computer science. (yes, I realize they're doing some creative research on scaling it up).
Someone could clone Facebook tomorrow, and offer it for free, right? But.. could they charge $10/mo for it, and say "Facebook but without the spying and advertising?" - Probably not.
I'm not saying computer science is useless here. New algorithms WILL be needed. Bitcoin or any form of distributed ledger seems extremely unlikely to scale as needed, for instance. Perhaps provably unable to scale as needed - I'd welcome a paper proving this with solid math / computer science (and there probably is one, I don't keep up).
But what IS necessary is a working economic model that is not the current economic model. You're saying that nobody can predict the future (true), so just try a bunch of stuff - so far, so good. But then when you find something that works.. how do you pay for it? Nobody in computer science is trying to figure it out... that is a consideration "for later" - the point the article is making! What happens "later" when money needs to be made.. well.. advertising and surveillance. That is literally the only answer anyone has come up with.
That is why, FIRST, predictive or not, someone (probably in the social sciences) needs to come up with the idea(s) about how it _might_ be paid for, that don't include advertising.
The article was a response to the big decentralized web conference "web 3.0" that happened recently. It was all CS people, technologists who got together to enjoy talking about technology. But economics is what will shift this, and _innovation_ perhaps will be needed in economics. And other social sciences - nudging, gamification, etc.
If we just make a better algorithm, people won't find our UI design intolerable.
If we just offer them some privacy, they will pay real money for it.
Long before there was a web, people were giving up privacy and freedom for the convenience of credit cards.
If the decentralized web is going to fly, it needs to START with the social sciences.
We can all nerd out over algorithms that make it happen, or use math to prove that it can't be done, only once the economists have created a model in which it might, theoretically be done. And the social scientists have created a model in which a critical mass of people will make the necessary choices, when presented with them.
As it stands, most people are not willing to pay: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/11047801/Would-yo...
I would be willing to pay that _and more_ in a heartbeat if given the option. But, in social science terms - I understand the problems with centralization much better than most, I'm willing to put up with much worse UI than most, and I'm wealthier than average.
Heck I'd probably pay just because I think the underlying technology is neat! But that makes me a pretty extreme outlier on the broad spectrum of humanity that are choosing, en-masse to use Facebook, which means that I either need to use Facebook, or nothing.
Well, that and the fact that the memory is soldered on in most cases and the total device cost extremely low (compared to servers). So you are expected to simply replace your system entirely in the event that there are memory errors you notice. And hopefully nothing goes wrong that you don't notice.
Also, I suppose technically if you were only worried about bit flips due to solar activity, then a tiny amount of RAM on a tiny chip has less surface area and fewer bits TO flip than your standard full sized DIMM.
I think ARM has a lot of potential in the "smartphone priced" server market, particularly in an age where physical isolation (vs VMs or containers) and legal ownership of the server might theoretically provide some advantages against state surveillance. At least post-facto in the sense of "one could conceivably build a lawsuit on this" vs. "now I need DigitalOcean/Amazon/Google to sue the govt for me."
Your "story" is so amazing - half the price of Cessna's attempt at the same thing?!
However, Cessna's variant does have a second seat and a fair bit more load capacity.
Q1) Could one sacrifice some pounds of baggage for a bigger pilot? I'm currently (sadly) ~240lbs.
Q2) Is there a single factor which dominates the huge difference in price? It appears the Cessnas were produced in the US, until they moved production to China - making (apparently) a ~$71k difference in labor cost! But they still are selling for $150k instead of the original target $110k. So is it labor? Materials? Design? Engine? I'm very (hacker) curious!
Q3) You mention the market being uninterested in "bare-bones" planes without radios, lights, navigation, iPod jacks etc. But while the "top tier" of those items are certain to be expensive, the "non-aviation grade" version of most of the sensors, GPS, radios etc have plummeted in cost in the years since the LSA category was created. An in-car GPS unit used to be $500+ minimum - now it is < $100 - with a bigger, brighter, higher resolution display, more CPU and map storage memory and fancy 3D navigation stuff to boot! Altimeter sensors are now basically "freebies" integrated into all sorts of consumer electronics. I find it disappointing (though unsurprising) that the aviation market hasn't pushed harder such that these systems are not such a major cost driver. Do you have any insight into why this is? Or have they really dropped in price, and a system which would have formerly added say, $50,000 to an aircraft now adds "merely $10,000?"