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pbk1

175 karma · joined February 8, 2017

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pbk1··on Opus 5.5 is good at explainer videos
FWIW the examples in OP were generated by image models, not Claude - Claude just orchestrated the other models via OpenRouter
pbk1··on New Mexico is first state in US to offer universal child care
I went on a road trip through Southern NM a couple years ago. Highly recommend stopping at Gila National Forest - it's a certified "dark park", remote enough from sources of light to see the Milky Way with the naked eye.

One thing that struck me - towns down there had a template. 90% of towns we drove through were just a blood plasma "donation" center, a dollar store, a gas station, and a cemetery. Very bleak existence out there, oil and gas boom notwithstanding.

pbk1··on The Little Learner: A Straight Line to Deep Learning
IIRC you can use Racket base so long as you define the “atom” function per the book authors
pbk1··on Federal Reserve to increase interest rates by 75 basis points
> if housing is far and away the best investment you can possibly make, both in the short, medium, and long-term.

citation needed? genuinely curious - are there studies about long-term returns from housing vs. other asset classes (namely public equities)?

pbk1··on The Karikó problem: Lessons for funding basic research
While we're talking about funding basic research - how come these independent institutes and government funding agencies don't get equity (warrants, options, whatever) in the entities that ultimately commercialize and patent this research?

I reckon they probably take some cut as a licensing fee, but seems like participating in the upside would create significant incentives over the current regimes.

pbk1··on MAPS Celebrates California Senate Passage of Psychedelic Reform Bill
I don't know where you live but it's been decriminalized in plenty of places in the West, so even if it's not fully legalized the worst you face would be a nominal fine, not getting arrested.
pbk1··on Organic and regenerative agriculture are revitalizing rural Montana economies
Setting aside the environmental concerns (which are important, and indirectly health-adjacent), are there material health reasons to eat organic? This Mayo Clinic article [0] points to pretty minor improvements, would love if someone could point me to evidence substantiating OP's claim, or maybe which products in particular are materially healthier if produced organically.

[0] https://www.mayoclinic.org/healthy-lifestyle/nutrition-and-h...

pbk1··on Second Citizenships, Residencies, and/or Temporary Relocation
You can accelerate 5-10 years to 3 months using pay for citizenship schemes. For example Grenada has one where you get citizenship and a passport in return for "donating" $150k USD to the government. Grenada's is interesting because you get visa-free access to China. Antigua and Barbuda are running a "50% off sale" (I kid you not..) where the cost is only $100k USD (normally $200k USD)
pbk1··on Chinese regulators to push tech giants to share consumer credit data
Lenders can and do buy this kind of data to underwrite their borrowers (credit cards, BNPL, student loans, mortgages, etc.). They don't need to get it from credit bureaus. Anyone who is underwriting off of bureau data alone is a decade (or more) behind state of the art at this point.
pbk1··on Skynet – Build a Free Internet
Don't worry, his newsletter providers are deplatforming him too.[0]

[0] https://disrn.com/news/email-provider-suspends-trump-campaig...

pbk1··on U.S. Judge Halts TikTok Ban
In China it's referred to as 中国特色社会主义, which means "socialism with Chinese characteristics"
pbk1··on Ask HN: How to get focused and calm myself before an interview with investors?
Look into the TIP[0] skill from dialectical behavior therapy. In particular I've found the cold water triggering a dive response[1] very effective at calming me down when I face acute anxiety.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dialectical_behavior_therapy#D... [1] https://www.bustle.com/p/what-is-mammalian-diving-response-t...

pbk1··on Ask HN: I have $1M cash in my bank. How can I stretch it so I can retire?
0.6% compounded for 30 years would be barely $1.02M
pbk1··on Shanghai stock exchange suspends Ant Group's A-share IPO
I don't think 30% is unreasonable, nor would it require them raising that much cash relative to a company of their magnitude or

Back of the envelope math: Majority of their portfolio is very short term, let's assume 6 months duration which is a 0.5yr weighted average life 300B in annual originations Assume they can get similar leverage as US securitization markets, which would be 95% advance rate (5% "skin in the game" for Ant)

Then the equity required would be: 300B0.530%5% = ~2.25B, and they were planning to raise $30B as part of this IPO

pbk1··on Ask HN: What are your instruments for investment?
There are generally many APs for a single ETF or family of ETFs. Historically they have been the ETF desks of large banks[0], more recently marketing making/trading firms have build out ETF AP capabilities[1].

[0] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/authorizedparticipant.a... [1] https://www.janestreet.com/what-we-do/etfs/

pbk1··on Modeling a Wealth Tax
FYI - Keith's response is in your link; he responded before you wrote this comment
pbk1··on What's it like to be an Octopus? (2017)
The opening of this article references Hokusai's "Great Wave" woodblock print. There's an easter egg in this print I never noticed, which is that Mount Fuji is nestled in the trough of the wave.

Learned this from a great NYT article on Hokusai focusing on another print from the same series: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/07/arts/design/h...

pbk1··on Examining the dominance of Amazon, Facebook, Google and Apple
I interpreted the inclusion of party affiliation in parentheses as indicating this has bipartisan interest
pbk1··on How McKinsey helps companies avoid responsibility
People didn't "panic", but the markets and industry did certainly react to his ideas and behavior - the pharma company he ran (Valeant) tanked and he was ousted as CEO.
pbk1··on Ask HN: Who Earns a Living of Betting?
No experience myself but you might be interested in this subreddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/algobetting/
pbk1··on Self-Hosted Homelab Website
Can someone ELI5 why PiHole is preferable to an in-browser blocker like AdBlock Plus?
pbk1··on Ask HN: I'm an incoming freshman to college for a CS major, what should I know?
Building on this, I think good technical skills will definitely help get you in the door but won't get you that far up the ladder if your ambitions are management/executive track. And that's not for everybody, which is why larger companies have built individual contributor tracks.
pbk1··on Ask HN: I'm an incoming freshman to college for a CS major, what should I know?
Social skills in a career context are not just getting along well in the office and being able to make small talk in the snack room. It's about creating a strong and deep network, and as an engineer, being able to interface effectively with business and other stakeholders on a social level. It's also about seeking out, recruiting, and fostering new talent, moreso at growing companies. I work at a unicorn tech company and very few engineers meet these criteria.
pbk1··on Ask HN: How much of pay cut would you take for a more fulfilling job?
this seems pretty doable - why haven't you made this move yet?
pbk1··on Magic Leap CEO Rony Abovitz Is Out
"Keep Talking and Nobody Explodes" is a VR-enabled videogame [0]

[0] https://keeptalkinggame.com/

pbk1··on Ask HN: What are your pandemic-inspired startup ideas?
Broader access to securities-based lending (NOT margin). Hearing a lot of people selling parts of their portfolios to fund themselves or their families during the crisis, obviously this is a very inopportune time to be liquidating. Would be a lot better if they paid a fairly nominal interest rate (2-4%) to fund their short term demands instead of being forced to sell to generate cash. Not advising people people take loans against >50% of their nest egg.
pbk1··on How VC Works – A Beginner's Guide
Under this definition, it would seem as if Andreesen Horowitz is not anywhere close to a top decile fund[1]. Does anyone know which ones are? Data on VC returns seems hard to come by.

[1] https://www.theinformation.com/articles/andreessen-horowitz-...

pbk1··on Ask HN: Are there any remote companies that pays SF rates worldwide remote?
The parent is referring to a pension plan, which is generally guaranteed income for life after a certain amount of service. If you leave or are fired prior to the service requirement, you could lose all or part of the pension. Just want to note in the US these are usually offered to public sector workers - e.g. teachers, firemen, police, military, civil servants. I don't know of a private company that still offers pensions.

Separately we have retirement savings programs (usually called a 401k) that are offered by private sector employers, often with a match. Employees can invest a percentage of their paycheck in the program, and companies will match that contribution to a certain level to incentivize savings. When you leave the company you can keep the account or roll it somewhere else. Unfortunately these contributions are capped by federal law at no more than $19,500 per year per person. There are tax benefits to the 401k - you can choose to pay tax on the contribution when you make it and pay no income tax on those funds in retirement, or not pay tax now and pay income tax in the future. This is a lot better than investing in a taxable brokerage account, because you get taxed on the income as well as the securities.

pbk1··on Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?
In addition to the withdrawal rate as others have mentioned, the prudent approach to retiring now would be gradually changing their allocation to a less risky mix over the course of several years. Had for example they rotated some equity into a modest amount of Treasuries, that portion of their portfolio would actually be doing well right now (see for example $TLT).
pbk1··on Dell Sells RSA to Private Equity Firm for $2B
It's kind of the opposite - funds take relatively concentrated positions using a lot of leverage then install new management or hire consultants to make the company more profitable (on paper at least, and usually by cutting costs).

Also, VC returns are distributed according to a power law because most startups won't pan out. Private equity buys companies later in their lifecycle, banking on levering up stable operating cashflow rather than banking on the product becoming the next FAANG unicorn. There's a bit of a continuum between VC -> Growth Equity -> Private Equity.

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