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oldgradstudent

3,614 karma · joined December 7, 2017

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oldgradstudent··on The New York Times is suing OpenAI and Microsoft for copyright infringement
> If you scraped New York times for your own LLM that you used internally and didn't distribute the results, there would be no copyright infringement.

Why?

As far as I understand, the copyright owner has control of all copying, regardless of whether it is done internally or externally. Distributing it externally would be a more serious vilation, though.

oldgradstudent··on Moderna's mRNA cancer vaccine works better than thought
> And, yes, nobody has tested the severity reduction in a proper trial. It would be expensive, difficult and serve little purpose.

No purpose except for actually knowing whether it actually reduces severity.

> What we can observe is that given matched populations the unvaccinated die at a considerably higher rate than the vaccinated. Beware of some bogus "studies" to the opposite--which didn't use matched populations. Those at higher risk are more likely to be vaccinated and a vaccinated high risk individual can easily still be more likely to die than an unvaccinated low risk individual.

The sad reality is that you can't do matched population without a randomized controlled trial. You can't control for confounders you don't understand.

A recent hillarious example is the well-publicized paper that showed a drop of over 90% in Covid-related mortality after the first booster. Other researchers managed to obtain the data and it turned out there was also a similar drop in non Covid related morality. This resulted in the following correspondece, which is well worth reading:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2306683

A choice quote from the authors of the original paper:

> During the B.1.617.2 (delta) wave in the United States, similar associations were observed between the use of mRNA vaccines and lower mortality not related to Covid-191 and mortality from any cause.

They mean that many of the studies showing a drop in Covid mortality after the mRNA vaccines, also showed a similar drops in non-Covid related mortality. In other words, the vaccinated population were healthier at the outset and the drop was bogus.

You need a proper clinical trial here to make this claim, as the observational data is ridiculously confounded.

oldgradstudent··on Apollo 11 vs. USB-C Chargers (2020)
> Wild to think the thing that charges my devices could be programmed to put a human on the moon

With a large enough lithium battery, a charger can easily take you part of the way there.

oldgradstudent··on Moderna's mRNA cancer vaccine works better than thought
> the invader losing very quickly and the patient never noticing.

That's called preventing Covid. Covid is the disease, not simply an infection.

The problem is that the vast majority of people who got the vaccine did in fact notice very well they've had Covid.

> That's what they got against Covid/Wuhan and the world actually did achieve herd immunity--against Covid/Wuhan. (The Wuhan strain has been extinct for some time.)

The Wuhan strain wasn't that relevant even before the vaccines were widely available.

> Unfortunately, it turned out to mutate quite rapidly (like the flu) and soon the battles weren't always a rout.

Which was predicted and expected all along.

> It still reduces severity, though, and thus is still used.

Only if you take really awful studies seriously.

Nobody bothered to test this hypothesis in a proper trial.

oldgradstudent··on Moderna's mRNA cancer vaccine works better than thought
This claim would come as a great surprise to the FDA, as they approved it soley for prevention of COVID.
oldgradstudent··on Moderna's mRNA cancer vaccine works better than thought
It was a bit expensive, and it took some time to ramp up production. Still impressive, though.

The problem was that almost everyone who got the vaccine also caught the disease.

oldgradstudent··on Steve Jobs emails Eric Schmidt (2007)
Complaint against companies, not against individual actors for some reason. The final judgements in both resulted in meager compensation and achieved zero deterrence.

Why haven't Eric Schmidt or Steve Jobs spent a single day in jail or become felons? The DOJ didn't even try.

oldgradstudent··on Steve Jobs emails Eric Schmidt (2007)
But why a civil suit?

This is a criminal matter. It should not be too hard to prove criminal intent :

> A few months later, Schmidt instructed a fellow exec not to discuss the no-call list other than “verbally,” he wrote in an email, “since I don’t want to create a paper trail over which we can be sued later?”

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/02/google-apple-cl...

oldgradstudent··on Steve Jobs emails Eric Schmidt (2007)
Thanks Obama for enforcing the Sherman Antitrust Act:

> SECTION 1. Every contract, combination in the form of trust or otherwise, or conspiracy, in restraint of trade or commerce among the several States, or with foreign nations, is hereby declared to be illegal. Every person who shall make any contract or engage in any combination or conspiracy hereby declared to be illegal shall be deemed guilty of a felony, and, on con-viction thereof, shall be punished by fine not exceeding $100,000,000 if a corporation, or, if any other person, $1,000,000, or by imprisonment not exceeding 10 years, or by both said punishments, in the discretion of the court.

oldgradstudent··on Did English ever have a formal version of "you"? (2011)
Tenses, pronounciation that is completely divorced from spelling, idioms, prepositions, word order, articles, and so on.

As a foreigner that observed a lot of other foreigners speaking English: it is not an easy language to master.

oldgradstudent··on Did English ever have a formal version of "you"? (2011)
> The noun gendering alone makes it significantly easier to embarrass yourself speaking French than English.

English has more than enough of ways to easily embarrass yourself without the need for arbitrary noun gendering.

oldgradstudent··on Quantum computing's reality check
The real difference is between "we think we can do it" and "we think we can get away with saying it".
oldgradstudent··on Quantum computing's reality check
An expert consensus is an interesting social phenomena that should be definitely investigated by anthropologists of science.

It tells us nothing about reality.

oldgradstudent··on 23andMe changed its terms of service to prevent hacked customers from suing
They can't tell you your eye color from their DNA data with any degree of confidence, and you seriously expect them to be able to find a marker of something as vague as "troublemakers" ?!
oldgradstudent··on A medieval Gothic monastery built using CAD / CAM
You sometime have to wonder what they hell they were thinking. Who in their right mind would replace [1] by [2] and [3]?
oldgradstudent··on A medieval Gothic monastery built using CAD / CAM
Not sure if it counts as Victorian Gothic, but The Natural History Museum in London is one of the most delightful building I've seen.

Not only the general architecture, but all the natural history theme that applies to all the Gothic design elements. Animals replacing Gargoyles, etc.

A beautiful building.

oldgradstudent··on A medieval Gothic monastery built using CAD / CAM
> My first association is "fake"

Better fake than the the latest fad in architecture.

At least fake gothic could never have resulted in brutalist buildings.

oldgradstudent··on Star neuroscientist may have manipulated data to support a major stroke trial
> Where do you draw the line? I saw many funding proposals for extremely abstract category theory justified on the basis it helps number theorists solve problems related to cryptography and protect e-commerce.

That's not fraud. Not even the most gullible reviewer believes a word of it.

Leave it to anthropologists of science to describe the ritualistic aspects of writing abstracts.

oldgradstudent··on The 1988 shooting down of Flight 655 as a user interface disaster
A German professor of mine worked at BMW before grad school. He worked on the firmware of the tachometer.

The behavior of the tachometer needle was dictated by the marketing department.

A BMW engine accelerates smoothly and confidently. The tachometer needle never shakes, it rises smoothly and confidently.

oldgradstudent··on Climbing 50 steps a day can cut your risk of heart disease
You are being far too kind to this study and the accompanying university press release. They use the standard schtick - report correllation in the journal article but imply causation in the university press release.

As you say, of course there's an association, it is harder for sick people to climb stairs. We expect disease and stair climbing to be inversely correllated.

The press release is as bad as saying that carrying umbrellas can increase rainfall.

oldgradstudent··on Climbing 50 steps a day can cut your risk of heart disease
Also, people with umbrellas cause rain to drop. The same team should investigate that
oldgradstudent··on After robotaxi dragged pedestrian 20 feet, Cruise founder and CEO resigns
If it appears in the California Driver Handbook, it's not an edge case.

> Move your vehicle out of traffic if no one is hurt. Then call 911.

They did neither.

oldgradstudent··on Self-proclaimed 'gay furry hackers' breach nuclear lab
We were promised that on the Internet, nobody knows you're a dog.
oldgradstudent··on Kyle Vogt resigns from Cruise
> Yeah, and unlike humans who double park, people lose their minds at an AV, hence why the company increased the number of operators.

Looks like they haven't increased the number of operators enough.

> They're also overstaffed to deal with surges

Are they? How are they going to handle the next bay area earthquake? Will they have enough operators for that, or are they going to block first responders all over the city?

Fortunately, this is a moot point, because it is doubtful whether they are going to survive.

> I recommend you go read the (ex) CEO's response to these claims. As the number of cars on the road goes up, the number of employees required to deal with surges increases more slowly. At some point the ratio increases from 1:20, which is where it's already at.

Nice theory. Note that the number of remote operators shocked everyone that was following Cruise. They were constantly asked about number of cars per operator, what exactly the duties of a remote operators were, etc. They always avoided these quetions, and for a good reason. It turns out this was far worse than anyone outside Cruise could have imagined.

oldgradstudent··on Kyle Vogt resigns from Cruise
> This is "human monitor or the car might do a safe stop and block traffic."

And they need all those people because their software cannot reliably handle it itself.

Otherwise they would not used so many people.

> A human driver can easily get away with the latter, and often do. A self-driving car can't, because people hold them to higher standards.

LOL. They've been blocking streets all over the place.

https://techcrunch.com/2022/06/30/cruise-robotaxis-blocked-t...

oldgradstudent··on Kyle Vogt resigns from Cruise
He may be very smart and very nice, but the recent leaks from Cruise make it appear, in my opinion, closer to Theranos than to Apple.

From the leaks it is clear that safety was never the top priority at Cruise.

Few people were surprised that Cruise car seriously injured a pedestrian by unnecessarily dragging her screaming for 20' in a completely unnecessary maneuver.

I'll stand by my opinion that Cruise is not long for this world.

oldgradstudent··on Kyle Vogt resigns from Cruise
> most of these support events don't result in the remote operator doing _anything_

That's a utterly ridiculous statistic. If you need a human to monitor to prevent a bad result, it doesn't matter how often the human has to intervene.

For example: With Tesla Autopilot, the driver doesn't have to do anything the vast majority of the time. Still, your life expectancy will be measured in days if you don't monitor it.

Even if the vehicle makes completely random decisions when faced with a binary code, you could still say that 50% of the support events don't result in the remote operator doing anything.

oldgradstudent··on Kyle Vogt resigns from Cruise
It's not just hiding the video. It was mainly the content of that video.

And then we had all the other leaks.

That they couldn't reliably distinguish children from adults, making them (even by their overly optimistic models) more dangerous to children than humans - which is why they started operating mostly at night, when there are few children.

And then it was reported they had 1.5 employees per car in operations, requiring support every 2-5 miles. Very surprising given that they've reported a disengagement every 95,000 miles last year.

Cruise was a company that could not withstand transparency.

oldgradstudent··on Kyle Vogt resigns from Cruise
Sold to whom?

Who will be willing to spend a billion or two every year with no end in sight?

oldgradstudent··on OpenAI's board has fired Sam Altman
The other two are written by LLMs.
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