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nzealand

797 karma · joined April 19, 2012

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nzealand··on Show HN: IMDb SQL Best Movie Finder
Try a Bayesian sort.

You will get a better result.

SELECT * EXCLUDE (titleType, primaryTitle, language) FROM 'imdb01-11-2024.parquet' WHERE (region is null and titleType = 'movie') ORDER BY ( (numVotes * averageRating)+(1000007))/ (numVotes+1000000) desc LIMIT 100

nzealand··on Show HN: Which animal shares your body fat percentage?
The average body fat of a New Zealand male is 14–25% according to Google's AI.

The average body fat of a Kiwi woman is 25-31% according to ChatGPT.

The closest match is the sheep.

nzealand··on Things my girlfriend and I have argued about
Why... it creates a nice symmetrical look on cakes/ pies/ pav

https://www.thepioneerwoman.com/food-cooking/recipes/a78426/...

nzealand··on The introverts are winning
The article confuses extroversion with resilience and living outside.

Hermits, who live alone, in the wild, are some of the most introverted yet resilient people alive.

The article also confuses living on a couch with introversion.

Who is less of a couch potato, the introvert mountain biking by themselves, or those dudes pictured sitting at a pub?

I am a huge proponent of pushing yourself outside your comfort zone, but this article does a poor job of articulating what and why.

nzealand··on The greatest social media site is Craigslist
just include -bmw, and it filters all that crap out.
nzealand··on Show HN: I'm 16 and building an AI based startup called Factful with friends
Your response to critical feedback is excellent btw. Nice job all around!
nzealand··on Reddit is full of bots: thread reposted comment by comment, 10 months later
ReplyGuy was posted here six months back under a different name...

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38070502

nzealand··on Adventures Making Vegemite
America actually has a beefy abomination called Beefy Bovrite, which kind of looks like it might be somewhat like Marmite and Vegemite, but sadly is not.
nzealand··on Inside the Massive Alleged AT&T Data Breach
I've been with AT&T forever, I've used a custom email address for AT&T since forever, and my email address is also not in the dump (I have a Premier account.)
nzealand··on Purple Llama: Towards open trust and safety in generative AI
Seriously, what is Meta's strategy here?

LLMs will be important for Meta's AR/VR tech.

So perhaps they are using open source crowd to perfect their LLM tech?

They have all the data they need to train the LLM on, and hardware capacity to spare.

So perhaps this is their first foray into selling LLM as a PaaS?

nzealand··on 15 years ago, I helped design Google Maps
Drop a pin. It sucks. I know.
nzealand··on Tell HN: 3G sunsetting is remotely killing every Subaru Outback battery
Did you lose bluetooth or front speakers?
nzealand··on Tell HN: 3G sunsetting is remotely killing every Subaru Outback battery
According to Subaru's website & TRB, this only impacts vehicles from 2016-2018

https://www.subaru.com/support/3g-network-retirement.html

https://www.tsbsearch.com/Subaru/15-291-22

nzealand··on Mistral 7B
Hmmmm.

> ollama run falcon

This isn't right.

> ollama run mistral-openorca

This doesn't work.

nzealand··on Can’t send email more than 500 miles (2002)
https://100parkingtickets.com/
nzealand··on The infamous coin toss
If you lose half your wealth, you have to double your wealth to get back to where you were.

The log change intuitively shows this.... log (0.5) = -0.3 & log (2) = 0.3

If you lose three quarters of your wealth, you have to quadruple your wealth to get back to where you where.

Again, log intuitively shows this.... log (0.25) = -0.6 & log (4) =0.6

nzealand··on Ask HN: Alternatives to Reddit
Tildes is invite only right now.

You can monitor the invite thread on reddit here https://www.reddit.com/r/tildes/

Alternatively you can contact the administrator of tildes here: https://docs.tildes.net/contact

nzealand··on The Diderot Effect
> For example, if you buy a car or a house, it’s basically guaranteed that you will soon need car things and house things. Many of those things will in turn require their own things, and so on.

...then eventually, you need a bigger house to keep all those things in.

nzealand··on Ask HN: How are you using GPT to be productive?
Interesting. What prompt did you use to get GPT to write in third person like that?
nzealand··on A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
But that is where you are wrong.

VCs can be wildly successful making 999 losing bets, as long as one bet is a 100 bagger. VCs are running off imperfect information, they don't know which horse will be a winner, so they spread their bets. The more bets the better.

Short hedge funds are betting that they know more than Mr Market, one of the most efficient pricing mechanism known to man. A long fund can be no smarter than a monkey throwing darts, and it still does well. A short fund needs to be the smartest person in the room. They go deep, to find an edge that no one else but them has spotted. So they are highly concentrated, because you just can't go that deep on more than a handful of companies.

To say a short sellers insight is not worth anything because they just got lucky once is incredibly... short sighted?

nzealand··on A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
With all due respect, you have no idea what you are talking about.

A traditional hedge fund is the opposite of a VC. VC's want huge gains, which means huge volatility. Traditionally hedge funds minimize volatility rather than maximize returns. Traditional hedge funds are for those who care more about wealth retention during down times than increasing wealth during uptimes.

The maximum theoretical gain from shorting is 100%. A stock can only go to zero. If only 10% of your shorts are wildly correct and go to zero, you just made 10% on that one bet.

The maximum theoretical loss from shorting is infinite. Any one of the other shorts could blow up your fund if it went up 10x. Of course, this is a hedge fund, with risk management that would either hedge the risk or exit the position before it blew up the fund.

But shorting costs money. Especially if it's a popular short or if it pays a healthy dividend. Even if your stars align, and all the other 90% of short/long pairs just went sideways, neither generating a profit nor a loss, you are unbelievably lucky if you come anywhere close to the 8% a traditional index ETF returns over the long haul, with a 10% win rate on shorts.

nzealand··on A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
Bleecker Street Research is a hedge fund that has been shorting since 2014. They wouldn't be in business if they were only lucky once.

Shorts perform significantly more analysis than longs, as they have to have great timing in addition to being directionally correct.

In the article, Bleecker are not making any specific predictions, just explaining their reasoning for shorting this stock.

Their one prediction is "This is not a contained event…. I don’t know what happens."

Yellen has said she is monitoring a small number of unprofitable banks carefully.

From a market perspective, short interest in the regional bank ETF KRE has been rising steadily for a while now.

Looking at unprofitable banks with high implied volatility, the market seems to think First Republic Bank FRC is under some duress.

It is exceptionally costly to short FRC right now, but I imagine anyone with more than $250k in a single account is moving money out right now. Which is the definition of a bank run.

nzealand··on All you may need is HTML
Does anybody know of a buy once/own for life editor that has Dreamweaver's concept of templates?

Dreamweaver lets you pull in header/ footer HTML from a template, then see the complete HTML in the editor.

nzealand··on Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says
I wonder how the classified intelligence report responds to the fact that the early cases clustered around the Huanan Market not the Wahun Institute of Virology...

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm4454

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/03/03/1083751...

nzealand··on An AI lawyer was set to argue in court – real lawyers shut it down
I originally wrote that on Craigslists rants and raves at a point in the process when I was starting to get frustrated.

Just writing it out was therapeutic, it helped me see the absurd humor in the situation. Then someone responded with a link to an LA reporter who had written about similar situations.

I contacted him, he wrote a story about me, and all the bureaucratic problems just went away.

nzealand··on An AI lawyer was set to argue in court – real lawyers shut it down
I had the custom plates NV and ended up in some sort of dystopia where I got hundreds of parking tickets for all different makes and models of cars until well after I returned the plates.

I wrote my story up here...

https://100parkingtickets.com/

nzealand··on An AI lawyer was set to argue in court – real lawyers shut it down
This was actually arguments for a speeding ticket in California.

For those in the bay area with parking tickets.... I've had hundreds of parking tickets in California. I would always lose the first round of dispute, because it is adjudicated by the city/county that gets the revenue. The second level of dispute is reviewed by an independent party who actually looks at what you state and makes an impartial decision, and the third level is reviewed by the courts. I disputed hundreds of tickets, and only once did I almost get to the third level.

nzealand··on Ask HN: What do you talk about in 1-on-1s with your managers?
Your manager should want you to be happy and successful.

Clarify what is important (not just urgent) and why it's important. Present progress on key items, as your manager should be able to identify things you had not thought of. That should not require a deep dive. Highlight potential escalations. If you have a problem that requires your managers attention, also present a potential solution, then listen and hopefully learn.

Each quarter it's a good idea to revisit your yearly objectives, and progression towards these goals, which is the perfect time to also blow your own trumpet and ask for feedback on what you could do better.

Promotions and pay raises are often more about relationships with both your manager and his peers, so ask how you can increase your visibility across the organization. What problems can you help solve outside your day job?

If you aren't getting anything valuable out of the meeting, it's OK to just chat about personal stuff, or be silent and let the manager drive. Some managers are fantastic, and some managers are frankly in the wrong job.

nzealand··on California passes law banning Tesla from calling software FSD
> It's also the most comfortable on long road trips and I can sleep in it in climate-controlled comfort without generating a gas that could kill me.

Why are you sleeping in your car for long trips? :)

nzealand··on Ask HN: Do You Host Your Own Email?
I have custom domains forwarding emails to a couple of gmail accounts. It's a PITA.

I still have issues receiving emails. Especially from financial institutions. (Wells Fargo emails just... stopped. So I gave up and setup a gmail just for them.)

I have issues sending emails from my custom domain.

IRL I always have to explain that yes, my email address is YourCompany@MyDomain.com, but no, I don't actually work for YourCompany.

Over two decades, I have played whack a mole with a number of problems. Switching to a hosting provider that does not allow me to forward <any>@customdomain.com helped. It only allows explicitly forwarded email accounts, and setting up the email address explicitly passes most email validation tests, and I suspect the underlying IP is less likely to be blacklisted by fin tech that is extra careful about who they email.

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