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nwiswell

2,415 karma · joined April 21, 2021

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nwiswell··on Cystic fibrosis breakthrough has given patients a chance to live longer
In many other countries, patents do not apply to personal use, where there is no sale.

Since Trikafta is a blend of 3 small-molecule drugs, is it possibly feasible to publish a do-it-yourself synthesis process?

Or perhaps the community could even come together to set up a lab, where individuals could travel and go through the motions to produce their own?

I recognize this isn't ideal, but it might be legal...

nwiswell··on Ancient counterfeiters and their fake coins
> Seems they would be more rare and more valuable.

They are not. There are many, many, many cut coins, and often the cuts are "disfiguring" which will typically harm the "eye appeal" of the coin.

Cutting coins was common practice of the time, and if a coin passed through many different hands, it was basically inevitable it would end up cut.

It's kind of like seeing writing on cash... Most people don't write on their money, but enough people handle it that it's going to happen.

The most valuable coins typically sat in hoards, uncirculated, since circulation would itself wear on the coin and reduce the grade. I agree that seems a little backward, since it's not nearly as interesting to imagine the "life" of a pristine coin, but it is what it is.

nwiswell··on World Server Throwing Championship
Cut the ends off some rails, mount them at a 45 degree angle to the ground, and leg press it into low orbit
nwiswell··on World Server Throwing Championship
I'd for sure go for a 4U short depth with those beefy front handles. Grab one or both handles and hurl it around discus-style.
nwiswell··on The lithium-ion battery may not be the best bet for EVs
> Hard partial disagree.

If only there was a word besides "hard" for this situation

nwiswell··on Breaking BFT: Quantifying the cost to attack Bitcoin and Ethereum
I'd guess that the odds of bug discovery is roughly proportional to the number of people looking at the source code times the economic incentive to find a bug.

Both of these are astronomically high in the case of Bitcoin and Ethereum, and it's been some time since any breaking bugs have been found, so the odds of any remaining exploitable bugs must be pretty low.

A new bug could be introduced, obviously, but I think the review period for new changes reduces the odds of that too.

nwiswell··on Nokia made too many phones
> SE, 13, 14, 15, 15 pro

This more analogous to different model years of a car, rather than entirely different car models.

The customer immediately and intuitively understands 14 is better than 13, 15 is better than 14, etc.

The main thing clear to me is that the "mental flow chart" involved in selecting an Apple phone is much, much clearer than it would be for selecting a Nokia.

nwiswell··on AI needs so much power that old coal plants are sticking around
You mean new solar+battery will be cheaper than new coal plants, yes.

This is a question of whether to turn old coal plants back on.

nwiswell··on AI needs so much power that old coal plants are sticking around
But AI hardware is much, much more expensive than either of them. Clearly it's not acceptable to simply shut AI training off at night, so solar is not a complete solution.
nwiswell··on First arrests under Florida's new DNA law, Pennsylvania also considers testing
> Sexual assault would become a guaranteed prison sentence if a DNA db existed.

It would be proof of sex, but not proof of assault.

nwiswell··on Waymo car vandalized and lit on fire in San Francisco
> Also it’s possible I overplayed how much of this was an SF phenomenon.

Yep. This is a phenomenon everywhere. I don't have hard data to support this, but I'm under the impression that soccer fans in Europe are even crazier.

nwiswell··on Waymo car vandalized and lit on fire in San Francisco
Anarchist mobs? It was almost certainly some drunk kids in the middle of the Chinese New Year celebrations.

But the question remains: what was the political ideology of these youths? Anarchists? Marxists? Fascists? Technocrats? Monarchists??? We may never know!

nwiswell··on Better Call GPT: Comparing large language models against lawyers [pdf]
> If $10m was just spent building a repository of well reviewed contracts

What's your objection to Nolo Press? They seem to have already done that.

nwiswell··on Tesla driver pulled over after wearing new Apple vision headset on highway
> dash cams, phone mounts, or even my car's distance sensor since it is behind my review mirror.

There are actually carve outs for these, although I agree the fact that the HUD is "transparent" makes it ambiguous (still, I think you can argue it "reduces" the driver's "clear view").

Without those carve outs, yes, they'd clearly be illegal.

Here's the relevant provisions:

> (b) This section does not apply to any of the following:

> (1) Rearview mirrors.

> (11) An electronic communication device affixed to the center uppermost portion of the interior of a windshield within an area that is not greater than five inches square, if the device provides either of the following:

> (A) The capability for enforcement facilities of the Department of the California Highway Patrol to communicate with a vehicle equipped with the device.

> (B) The capability for electronic toll and traffic management on public or private roads or facilities.

> (12) A portable Global Positioning System (GPS), which may be mounted in a seven-inch square in the lower corner of the windshield farthest removed from the driver or in a five-inch square in the lower corner of the windshield nearest to the driver and outside of an airbag deployment zone, if the system is used only for door-to-door navigation while the motor vehicle is being operated.

> (13) (A) A video event recorder with the capability of monitoring driver performance to improve driver safety, which may be mounted in a seven-inch square in the lower corner of the windshield farthest removed from the driver, in a five-inch square in the lower corner of the windshield nearest to the driver and outside of an airbag deployment zone, or in a five-inch square mounted to the center uppermost portion of the interior of the windshield. As used in this section, “video event recorder” means a video recorder that continuously records in a digital loop, recording audio, video, and G-force levels, but saves video only when triggered by an unusual motion or crash or when operated by the driver to monitor driver performance.

nwiswell··on Tesla driver pulled over after wearing new Apple vision headset on highway
Yep. No ridiculous sunglasses either.
nwiswell··on Tesla driver pulled over after wearing new Apple vision headset on highway
Mainly because laws. Refer to CA Veh Code § 23120 (2022)

> No person shall operate a motor vehicle while wearing glasses having a temple width of one-half inch or more if any part of such temple extends below the horizontal center of the lens so as to interfere with lateral vision.

FWIW, I think this is entirely legitimate, since your peripheral vision is definitely impaired. That wouldn't be the case if the information was on a HUD instead.

But even if there was some hypothetical VR headset that has perfect peripheral vision pass-through, it's still at best ambiguously legal until the legislature takes action.

By the way, a HUD is probably illegal too, CA Veh Code § 26708 (2022)

> (2) A person shall not drive any motor vehicle with any object or material placed, displayed, installed, affixed, or applied in or upon the vehicle that obstructs or reduces the driver's clear view through the windshield or side windows.

There is a list of exceptions to this, but none appear to apply.

nwiswell··on Peter Thiel Backs Doping-Friendly Olympics Rival – The 'Enhanced Games'
> Behind the scenes, so many athletes are already enhancing themselves during the off season in so many sports, this is an attempt to "legalize it."

The thing that troubles me is that enforcing a certain degree of plausible deniability also limits the harm that these athletes cause themselves with the drugs.

When you throw the plausible deniability away like this, you open the gates to reckless drug abuse for the sake of competition, which could be an order of magnitude more lethal than everybody doping in secret moderation.

I'd be a lot more comfortable with it in principle if they were allowing drug use, but enforcing sane limits and disqualifying athletes who were clearly being reckless and causing themselves serious harm.

nwiswell··on Peter Thiel Backs Doping-Friendly Olympics Rival – The 'Enhanced Games'
It's very unclear whether it's the doping that's predominantly responsible for the increase in mortality, or whether it's the constant bulk/diet cycles, or the intentional and sometimes extreme dehydration, the volume of food and protein, or some other lifestyle-related factors.

There have been a number of longitudinal studies focused on steroids in particular, and they failed to produce really meaningful evidence of steroid mortality. One study in particular looked at East German Olympic athletes, many of whom were the witting or unwitting subjects of a state-sponsored steroid program, and found that as a population, they actually lived longer than their West German Olympic counterparts, in relation to their national population. (Table 2)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7739809/

That said, the bodybuilders may be abusing steroids to such a degree that it's causing the excess mortality.

It's a very interesting subject, I read this study about it recently:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40279-022-01801-0

nwiswell··on Infinite Craft
I got

Rich + Rich = Richer

Richer + Richer = Richest

Richest + Poop = Trump

nwiswell··on When America first dropped acid
For what it's worth, I don't think it's ugly.

I think you're right that it's a personality thing, maybe connected to how strong the "rationalization drive" is? I don't know.

I guess I'd rather tickle the rationalizing side of my brain with a rationalizination of the tendency to stop rationalizing rather than just stop rationalizing :)

nwiswell··on When America first dropped acid
That doesn't seem right.

I think of the brain as a "rationalization machine". It observes environmental inputs, and reflexively seeks to ascribe a cause for those inputs. In so doing, a causal model of the world is constructed (whether accurate or not), allowing the agent to make intelligent decisions about what actions to take in order to produce desired outcomes.

What hallucinogenic drugs tend to do is overwhelm the brain with sensory inputs that are sui generis and cannot be folded neatly into a pre-existing causal model of reality, but that are so numerous that they cannot simply be ignored.

So the "protective mechanism" of the brain, rather than abandoning or risking damage to this highly valuable causal model of reality, is to shunt these experiences over into an "other" category of mystical and religious significance. The fact that these experiences are inexplicable, rather than being an indication of any "malfunction" in the brain which might prompt us to doubt our perception in general, is instead proof of their cause: the incomprehensible divine.

This isn't academic, just my 2c.

nwiswell··on Ozempic Is Making People Buy Less Food, Walmart Says
... But if you're doing it illegally, you can pay way less money than you would for prescription Ozempic.

There is a booming black market for bootleg Chinese Semaglutide (and Tirzepatide, and Retatrutide, and etc)

nwiswell··on Houthi anti-ship missile systems: getting better all the time
The threat is to merchant shipping, not to Navy ships, which have countermeasures upon countermeasures.

The current SOTA in anti-ship technology are the Chinese hypersonic missiles such as the DF-26, which are believed to pose a credible threat to aircraft carriers. Iran is also developing hypersonic missiles like the Khalij Fars, but the Houthis don't have these and they are substantially less capable than the Chinese ones.

FTA:

> Civilian vessels can adopt security measures to thwart attempted boardings, but they lack defences against anti-ship missiles. While Western military vessels have advanced air and missile-defence capabilities – using them to down Houthi missiles and UAVs – they are constrained by the number of interceptor missiles they can carry and the challenge of restocking depleted inventories.

nwiswell··on Mark Zuckerberg’s new goal is creating artificial general intelligence
You're right, of course, but also Bill Gates was a cartoon capitalist villain for decades and then suddenly he started saving millions of kids in the third world.

Maybe Mark will have a similar moment of redemption, who knows.

nwiswell··on Which word begins with "y" and looks like an axe in this picture? (2017)
> sometimes he just says and does things to see what kind of reaction it gets from people

pours cereal box out onto the floor

"Some have called me a cereal instigator."

nwiswell··on Growing income inequality is driving public mistrust
> on salaries that have hardly moved for anyone except a few fortunate elites since the 80s.

I assume you're talking about salaries in the USA, and this is largely because global salaries have risen to take more of their fair share of the pie. At the same time, this has put a lot of pressure on US labor.

The postwar period from 1945 to around 1980 in the USA was historically aberrant. In 1970, the USA's share of global GDP was 38%. In 2023 it was around 15.5%.

Globally, living standards have skyrocketed since the 80s.

https://ourworldindata.org/a-history-of-global-living-condit...

nwiswell··on Growing income inequality is driving public mistrust
> The billionaires really, really want you to perceive this distinction as a real inequality problem. When people making $30K are resenting/fighting people making $300K, the people making $300M are sitting back and laughing.

But that is inequality, too.

Just as a thought experiment, if you were to take the global GDP and spread it perfectly evenly over every person on the planet, you'd have less than $13k per capita. That's around half of the income per capita in Hammond.

I think there's a perception that there's this massive hoard of wealth at the very top, and if only we could distribute it more fairly, we could solve a bevy of social ills. It's not that simple.

It's absolutely true that there are some unbelievably wealthy people, but they are also small in number. If you were to magically disgorge, say, every American with $50M+ of 90% of their wealth, you'd be lucky to be able to use the proceeds to raise all the Hammonds to the living standards of all the Boca Ratons, which as far as you're concerned here, does not really change their lifestyles.

Honestly I'm much more disgusted that billionaires exist while there are infants dying of malnutrition than I am disgusted that billionaires exist while there's people worried about their kids and their retirement. Those sorts of things are really unavoidable as long as we're grappling with scarcity.

nwiswell··on Electric light transmits data faster than Wi-Fi
> subter-subter-infra-red

To think that this was right there the whole time and we settled on "WiFi" instead!

nwiswell··on Beeper – Moving Forward
> Furthermore, I bet Beeper was outright hoping for a lawsuit from Apple

Doubtful. Beeper has several legitimate causes of action to bring their own suit, if they really expect that outcome (and more importantly, if they have the financial resources to litigate)

nwiswell··on Does quantum theory imply the universe is preordained?
I think philosophically when we talk about non-causal "free will" it is "not scientifically understood", but that's different than "supernatural".

Just because our perception prevents us from predicting outputs from inputs in a way that appears random does not mean that it is just a chaotic system. This is part of the question posed by the original article: does quantum theory provide certain mechanisms that could permit non-deterministic agents to intervene in causal ways that are not predictable? Or would we have to appeal to the supernatural / mystic / divine in order for such a thing to even be possible?

Certain interpretations (e.g., the "Many Worlds" interpretation of QM) are more conducive to this possibility than others.

Generally, "free will" is simply stated as "the freedom to do otherwise". Returning to the "simulated brain" example -- if the computer simulation is faster than the "squishy brain" agent, then it has already predicted the outcome, and the "squishy brain" agent has no "freedom to do otherwise": the outcome is pre-determined.

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