ntlind

Hey HN - We’re excited to share a demo for our new forecasting app, Quantile (named after quantile regression, since we’re big fans of predictive intervals).

Quantile is for non-technical users who need a quick and easy way to generate rigorous predictions about the future. We aim to offer all of the modeling features that experienced ML engineers would build themselves (e.g., cross-validated parameter tuning, hurdle modeling, etc.), but with smart defaults and a convenient UI such that they’d rather use our app instead.

- Demo (no sign-up required): https://demo.quantile.app

- Video (2.5 min.): https://quantile.app/videos/short_demo.mp4

- Walkthrough: https://quantile.app/walkthrough

Your thoughts and feedback are greatly appreciated!

The author shouldn't just be considering his individual risk level, though, which is the parent comment's point. Even if the individual's risk is extremely low, the expected negative societal impact can still be high given a) many other people are also taking the same risk at the same time, b) the system has a non-linear "breaking point" / constraint (e.g., a limited supply of hospital resources that are all near capacity), and c) crossing the breaking point causes major problems for people in and out of the system (i.e., doctors, people with QOL procedures that have to be cancelled due to overflow, etc.).

Completely agree. ICUs in my city are at 98% capacity, creating life-threatening situations for both patients and providers.

IMO, the author makes a compelling case for why vaccines should be mandatory: people significantly underweight the negative societal externalities of not getting vaccinated.