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nostrademons

84,556 karma · joined February 20, 2007

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nostrademons··on US closely monitoring case of lab worker who possibly died of plague in Siberia
I think it's pretty apparent from the news articles about it. She died of pneumonic plague, which is a fast-moving form of Yersinia Pestis infection that is roughly 100% fatal if first treatment occurs > 24 hours after symptoms start.

Why pneumonic plague? Pneumonic plague is the form of infection that occurs when plague bacteria are inhaled in aerosolized form into the lungs, or when septicemic plague (plague in the bloodstreams) reaches the lungs. Like, for example, when a test tube breaks. Her method of infection was a pretty textbook vector for pneumonic plague. Other cases have been caused when tissue samples of infected rodents have been splayed open, for example, or when blood from an infected person splatters the respiratory tract. Plague bacteria spreads pretty poorly otherwise, which is why the main vector for bubonic plague is flea bites.

nostrademons··on Nearly 200 people under observation after Irkutsk lab worker dies from plague
It is not in Beijng's interest to know. The truth that is convenient for the Chinese government is that it had nothing to do with Chinese government research. Therefore that is the truth and nobody is going to go digging much deeper, or if they do it's going to be buried in some report that never gets published.
nostrademons··on Nearly 200 people under observation after Irkutsk lab worker dies from plague
It wasn't the current government. The statement was published at the tail end of the first Trump administration but the Biden administration continued to say they had serious questions about the lab leak hypothesis.
nostrademons··on Nearly 200 people under observation after Irkutsk lab worker dies from plague
What do you know?

In 2021 the WSJ reported that 3 workers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology became sick enough in November 2019 with symptoms resembling COVID-19 that they sought hospital care. Their source was a U.S. intelligence report.

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/intelligence-on-sick-staff-a...

https://web.archive.org/web/20210622121243/https://www.chann...

The WHO responded by saying the lab leak theory was extremely unlikely, and this line of investigation was dropped (except possibly within the government - this is the sort of information that would be convenient for governments to know but inconvenient for the public to know). But then in a follow-up documentary, a WHO scientist that published that statement says that they were under heavy pressure from the Chinese government to do so:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/12/who-origins-...

nostrademons··on Nazi Germany had no hope of making an atomic bomb, uranium cubes reveal
It looks like Heisenberg wasn't wrong about the chemistry, only about the economics and willingness of Americans to throw massive amounts of resources at a project:

> HEISENBERG: I don’t believe a word of the whole thing. They must have spent the whole of their ₤500,000,000 in separating isotopes; and then it’s possible.

In reality, the Manhattan project cost about $2B, roughly ₤500,000,000 at the exchange rate of the time. And 85% of it went into building the huge isotope-separation plants in Oak Ridge and Hanford. Heisenberg's estimate was just about on the mark; he just didn't understand that America was willing to spend ₤400M building huge factories to do the necessary uranium separation.

> WIRTZ: We only had one man working on it and they may have had ten thousand.

In reality, America put 600,000 people to work on it. The Germans were incredulous because they could never get political buy-in for the massive scale mobilization needed to build the bomb. America was willing to spend more and employ more people.

nostrademons··on Venice’s failed war against Constantinople led to the first bond market
If that were true we wouldn't have corporate bond markets, and municipal bond markets, and mortgage bond markets. All of these are capital markets where the capital goes to either a private party or a non-monetary-authority government.

Seignoriage (the practice of the government directly issuing currency to fund its government expenditures) has been around for about 2500 years and predates the invention of the bond market described in this article by roughly 1500 years.

nostrademons··on ICC judge on what U.S. sanctions mean for her and global courts
I'm making a subtly different point. Pre-2002, the U.S. filled the role that the ICC does now. We would work multilaterally with a lot of different countries - many of whom are signatories of the Rome Statute now - to send UN peacekeeping forces to conflict areas and bring the perpetrators of genocide and crimes against humanity to justice. Post-2002 (and there was a lot going around in 2002-2004 to tarnish the U.S's international reputation besides the ICC), we became one of several parties that didn't sign the ICC. And now we seem to be actively retaliating against ICC judges, and not even for their decisions - this case is because the judge held that a decision could be made.

A lot of Americans believe that power is winning. There's a fight, and the side that wins is the more powerful one. But true power comes from not having anyone question your decisions, such that there is never a fight in the first place. And that's the dynamic I'm commenting on. Eisenhower was a powerful president even though he started no new wars (indeed, he ended the Korean war). With 70%+ approval ratings domestically and unquestioned economic supremacy abroad, he didn't need to.

nostrademons··on Venice’s failed war against Constantinople led to the first bond market
Why? The purpose of the bond market isn't to supply the government with currency, but rather to distribute risk and capital payments to those most willing to bear them.
nostrademons··on ICC judge on what U.S. sanctions mean for her and global courts
The grievance you express here basically comes down to "Who decides?" The reason the ICC is objectionable to the U.S. (and China, and Russia, and India - there are a bunch of other non-signatories of the ICC agreement, and I'm not picking on the U.S. here, more trying to illustrate a dynamic) is because it sets up a justice system that is not accountable to the U.S. political process.

The reason I'm saying that this undermines U.S. soft power and legitimacy is because it shouldn't matter who decides. If your country actually stands for freedom, justice, and universal human rights, then another human working from those principles would reach the same conclusion you do. That's what makes them universal human rights. So the implicit message when judges are sanctioned because other nations disagree with their right to make decisions is that maybe those rights aren't universal after all, and that some people's rights are more right than others. It's telegraphing insecurity - someone who knows they are in the right will happily let others make the decision, because they trust that others will come to the same conclusion as them.

The rest of your post also comes from that frame. You may actually be right - I acknowledged that neutrality and objectivity is likely a fiction. The thing is, that fiction underpins the ideas of rule of law, democracy, freedom, justice, and peace. All of those stem from a basic trust that your fellow humans, once they are trained to think in those terms, will come to the same conclusions that you do. So yes, perhaps all of international relations is power players advancing their own interests - but once everybody believes that to be true, we will lose rule of law, democracy, freedom, justice, and peace.

nostrademons··on ICC judge on what U.S. sanctions mean for her and global courts
There's another possible outcome as well: commerce moves to the black market, which eventually inverts the traditional national sovereignty relationship such that people learn that if they want to get anything done safely, they do it over encrypted communication channels with cryptocurrencies, and eventually the rump states of "official" governments are seen as cosplayers fighting over a pageant that people pay lip service to but don't rely on anymore.

The effect of these transitive sanctions is to create trading blocks. If you want to do business with the U.S, you don't do business with sanctioned entities. If other world powers (like China or the EU) want to negate the power of U.S. sanctions, they pass laws that people in their countries must not comply with U.S. sanctions or risk being sanctioned themselves. Now firms are stuck: if they comply with one set of sanctions they are in violation of another, and vice versa, and so it becomes impossible to comply with all of them. Their two options are: 1) comply with their local, national trading bloc and forego the benefits of globalization and trade or 2) become an outlaw, get the benefits of trade, but risk the ire of national authorities.

#2 seems rather unthinkable right now, coming off the Pax Americana, but it was actually quite common during historical periods like the one we're headed into. That's the choice made by pirates during the 1600s; by American colonists in the 1770s; oftentimes by frontier settlers in ~1860s America; and by numerous non-state nations like Jews or Gypsies throughout history. Plus, the Internet and cryptocurrencies and VPNs and Tor and residential proxies all exist. The technology is there for a market state that crosses national boundaries, and the social conditions are building.

Notice I said "outcome" rather than "solution", as I think people can see many things wrong with this. You'll kinda get whatever emerges, which probably is not an improvement on what we had from 1990-2020.

nostrademons··on ICC judge on what U.S. sanctions mean for her and global courts
It undermines the idea of the U.S. as a neutral arbiter for law, order, and free commerce. That may always have been a fiction, but it's a very useful fiction because it underpins U.S. soft power. It's much easier to get consent for being the world hegemon when you act like a benevolent, disinterested hegemon. Once you start becoming a participant - and overriding other institutions that are ostensibly providing neutral, impartial justice just because their decisions are inconvenient for you - you are essentially placing yourself below them and undermining your own legitimacy.

Neutrality and objectivity may be a fiction, but it's one of the most useful fictions that have been invented in the last 500 years.

nostrademons··on Cops Can Bypass iPhone's Automatic Reboot to Get into Locked Phones
FWIW the same applies to flying in the U.S. as long as you're not a person that the government cares about. I haven't had any issues with either TSA or CBP since 2011 (when, apparently, being multiracial with facial hair made me look Middle-Eastern and looking Middle-Eastern is a cardinal sin at U.S. ports of entry). Neither has anyone I've observed at the airport, and that's thousands of people per flight, and I fly about 3-4 times per year. There's plenty of stories on the Internet, and I don't doubt the stories are true, but the Internet can easily make a 1-in-a-million occurrence happen every day (indeed, given the sheer numbers, a 1 in a million occurrence does happen every day, it's just that it's unlikely to happen to you).
nostrademons··on Micron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026
It doesn't really matter what the AI companies want, if they misjudge the market somebody will just start a competitor and take it.

The relevant questions are: 1) Where are the economies of scale in the technology stack? 2) What's "good enough" to consumers, and how does that stack up with the relevant computing power needed? 3) What are the transaction costs along various system boundaries?

I think that the biggest force keeping inference in large centralized services is simply that provides a better product for the average user who doesn't care about local control (and the average user doesn't care about local control; indeed, for most people it's a misfeature, as then they have to administer their own hardware). HN is full of nerds that want to own their own stack; they're willing to put up with a little loss of capability to run Qwen 3.8 locally. But from the folks I know that have tried it vs. Claude vs. Codex vs. Antigravity, the local models are still pretty weak compared to what you can get by paying for a service. Most people will just pay for the service until the performance becomes indistinguishable and the price becomes less.

nostrademons··on 10-year Treasury yield climbs above 5.3% to a level not seen in 24 years
I'm not convinced of that, and I don't think the market is showing that it's convinced. At least not abnormal, above-2% inflation like we've had for the last 5 years.

I think there's a decent chance that Warsh gets inflation under control. The recent rise in bond yields is 100% due to Fed action: the Fed stopped rolling over long-term treasuries and MBS into like-kinded securities in June, instead rolling them over to short-term treasuries. This shrinks the Fed's balance sheet on the long end of the curve and adds to it on the short end, just like Warsh said that he would do. It's net-neutral for the Fed's balance sheet as a whole, but the effect is to push up long-term yields, hold short-term yields steady (which have a floor of the Fed funds rate), and steepen the yield curve.

The next step - and Warsh has made no secret that this is his plan - is that once the long-term Treasury market finds an equilibrium without Fed support, use that information to figure out what the neutral rate is, and set short-term rates accordingly. The price action we're seeing is a strong indication that the neutral rate is significantly higher than anybody expects right now.

The bond market is also not expecting significant inflation over the next 10 years. You can see this through the TIPS spread, the difference in rates between the 10-year TIPS and the 10-year Treasury bond. It currently stands at about 2.35%, indicating that the market as a whole expects about 2.35% (CPI) inflation over the next 10 years.

https://en.macromicro.me/collections/51/us-treasury-bond/846...

nostrademons··on 10-year Treasury yield climbs above 5.3% to a level not seen in 24 years
I'd question all of the "stocks keep marching higher" and the "it's not irrational" and the "only way out of this mess is inflation" narratives.

Take a look at the S&P 500 vs. the equal-weight S&P 500 over the last 6 months:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ES%3DF/

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RSP/

The equal-weight S&P 500 has been on a steady march downwards since it became apparent in August that the Iran war was not even close to over, and is now getting close to correction territory (7% down). This is exactly what you would expect given the news. It is the opposite of what you would expect from the inflation story, which would lift the earnings of everything in the S&P 500 (which, after all, is composed of the 500 largest companies and overweights monopolies or oligopolies in broad industries).

The S&P 500, however, has been basically flat over that same time period, holding at the 7700 level. It basically has a leg down over the course of the week, and then always pumps on Friday to regain the previous level. I'm not sure if it's government intervention or irrational exuberance in a small set of AI stocks, but the divergence between the broad market and the S&P 10 is becoming increasingly noticeable.

nostrademons··on Singapore govt dating app uses Gale-Shapley stable marriage algorithm
Note that it's possible for dating problems to be user behavior problems in a way that is suits the profit motive of dating sites, without any conscious intent from anyone in the ecosystem.

Model a world where everybody's self-perception of their mating value is just a little bit higher than their actual value - in other words, one not too far off from reality. Some segment of this population will drop their standards in the face of repeated rejection, and then eventually find a partner because of this. Their "lowered standards" become an accurate self-perception of reality. But some segment of the population will be unwilling to do this. They have a problem - they cannot find a partner no matter how hard they look.

A problem creates a market. People who can't find a partner turn to dating apps to find a partner - some may pay, and a lot more will click on ads. There's a decent chance that dating app management isn't consciously optimizing for failure in dating and success in clicking on ads. However, all the apps that are good at finding partners for their customers find that their customers disappear, while the apps that are good at getting people to click on ads generate huge amounts of revenue and take over the market. Which is entirely composed of people who don't actually want to find a partner, anyway, because those people who care more about the outcome of finding a partner will usually drop their standards enough to find one.

The same dynamic applies in many other markets. Evolution and selection bias > intent and intelligent design. The market ends up composed of people who can't achieve the ostensible purpose of the market, largely through their own actions, because people who can drop out of the market. Happy people often go through life with very few transactions: they might change jobs a couple times early in their career before finding a boss and job they're happy with and staying there until retirement, or they date around a little and then find a partner they marry for life, or they might rent a couple apartments before buying a house, renovating once, and then staying in it for 40 years. The transactions are overwhelmingly composed of people who are dissatisfied, because that's why they're buying things.

nostrademons··on Google ending ChromeOS support two years early
It is a stock part of Android. You can plug your Android phone into an external display and you'll get an experience like the Googlebook.
nostrademons··on Google ending ChromeOS support two years early
That's sort of the point of the Googlebooks. They run Android internally, and then to get Android to support Googlebooks, they had to add/improve things like multi-window support, very large monitors, keyboards, mouse support, etc.

If you have a USB dock that your keyboard/mouse/display is plugged in to, you should be able to stick it in your Pixel phone's USB jack and get a desktop experience. Some of my team would actually test keyboard support that way, by plugging a keyboard into a tablet.

nostrademons··on It's Time to Investigate the AI Labs
That very much strikes me as a CEO that is telling the American people what sounds good to the American people, while the consequences of it will be good to his company while placing the blame on other companies.
nostrademons··on It's Time to Investigate the AI Labs
I mean, the reason that all these stories about AI being an existential threat to humanity are coming out is because they've made $3.1T in debt-fuelled spending commitments and now interest rates are going up. "AI will kill us all if we don't regulate it" is their "get out of debt free" card, so they can have the U.S. government stop the arms race, raise prices on their existing models, and declare force majeure on new DC commitments:

https://emeraldbook.org/news/sep-1426-3/

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49830037

It's telling that the only AI-related company that is not sounding the AI safety drumbeat is NVidia, who is the only one that is cash-flow positive because of AI.

nostrademons··on Rising sea destroys homes, erases beaches in California
The Bay Area is one big river delta, going inland to Sacramento.

It's not the Pacific coast communities you have to worry about like Half Moon Bay or Santa Cruz. They have a beach, and then cliffs, and then the actual city is like 50-100 feet above sea level.

It's the bayside communities. Foster City. Redwood Shore. The Embarcadero. SFO. Port of Oakland. Highway 101.

All of these are pretty critical parts of Bay Area infrastructure, and gone with as little as a 1.6' sea level rise + 20yr storm.

https://www.kqed.org/science/1973624/maps-see-which-bay-area...

nostrademons··on U.S. appeals court upholds designation of Anthropic as supply chain risk
There are already several private companies that have this, eg. Apple has specific exemptions from tariffs on smartphones, computers, and semiconductors that they got by paying off Trump and promising to make their iPhone glass in Kentucky:

https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/tariff-exemptions-are-bi...

https://www.warren.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/media/doc/l...

The correct mental model for the U.S. federal government right now is not an omnipotent democratic overseer for economic activity, but rather as just one firm that negotiates directly with other major firms for legitimization and legal protection. Their power is likely to decline further, as is the value of "legitimization", as technological developments erode the military's monopoly on physical force. Interesting times ahead - historically tech transitions like this lead to a splintering of state legitimacy and then a reorganization under new forms of governance.

nostrademons··on UK military jamming other nations' satellites to defend itself, BBC told
There's technology now that matches local satellite/aerial images against the imagery that a drone or cruise missile sees to replace the GPS chip.

For fairly obvious reasons, militaries that have it would rather it stay in their hands, for fear of creating a non-state peer competitor that can do cheap long-range strikes on strategic targets.

It's fairly likely it'll fall into private hands anyway though, because anyone who can afford the prices for commercial satellite imagery could build such a thing.

nostrademons··on UK military jamming other nations' satellites to defend itself, BBC told
Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Iran/US are going to be looked at as the precursors to WW3, the same way that the Sino-Japanese War, Spanish Civil War, and Sudetenland Crisis were the precursors to WW2 and the Russo-Japanese War, Moroccan Crisis, and Balkan Wars were the precursors to WW1.
nostrademons··on 'We hacked the FBI:' Hackers say they have data on all FBI employees
The article implies that this was the actual motive for this attack. The group is conducting counterintelligence on the FBI so that they know when their members are being investigated, and they're using the information gained to "track, intimidate, and harass the FBI agents investigating them".
nostrademons··on 'We hacked the FBI:' Hackers say they have data on all FBI employees
The article says "All FBI data was compromised." Entirely possible that they have the case files on every investigation the FBI has ever conducted, all the data on Americans that the FBI collects in the course of doing investigations, etc. And they now know who shot JFK.
nostrademons··on 'We hacked the FBI:' Hackers say they have data on all FBI employees
The expense usually comes in operations. By connecting the water treatment plant to the Internet and making it remotely operable, you can have one guy who sits in an office and is responsible for overseeing the water quality at many different treatment plants. If everything is local, you need one guy on site at each different plant. People are expensive, software is cheap.

Of course, by making it remotely operable, that one guy could be replaced with a guy in Russia who's job is to poison everyone.

nostrademons··on Attention is all you have
I think the best approach is still files with embedded metadata (eg. EXIF for images/videos, ID3v2 for MP3s, resource forks in classic MacOS apps). That way you store, organize, and move around the content as a unit, and then you can display it in whatever way you want. And you can write new apps to display things differently as consumer tastes change.
nostrademons··on Attention is all you have
A "navigational query" is a query with a certain website in mind. So like if you search for [facebook], 99.99% of the time you are looking to go to Facebook, if you search for [hacker news] 99.99% of the time you are looking to go to news.ycombinator.com. Basically it replaces the address bar for people who don't know what URLs are. You aren't looking for information about the business, you want to go to the site/business itself.
nostrademons··on How do traffic signals work? (2019)
Oh, nice. So all traffic is routed over Shoreline and then enters downtown through Villa/Dana? That's a better road for it anyway, with the grade-separated Caltrain & Central Expressway crossings.

Is there still pedestrian access from the northeast side of the Caltrain? I used to live in the Moffett/Middlefield area and being able to walk to downtown was a big draw for that.

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