nhootan

Exactly right, it's GDPR, not specific to France. Working on it ...

That's a great feedback. I think I can add these scenarios as new features to the life events section. I have also thought of allowing to specify correlation between income and markets performance.

If you are interested in beta testing these feature, shoot me an email at hi@foresightplanner.com

The sign in is required for detailed plans to save the plans. Those plans also incure real comupte on the server. QC results are based on a cache in the browser and don't need sign in.

The Germany's data is in since 1901, but there is a gap between 1922-1923, cause the underlying dataset, DMS, has no bonds data for that period.

Glad it ran, but the numbers aren't US. Once you login, "Other, rest of world" gives you a gross projection with tax and benefits off. The returns come from the same 25 country bootstrap everyone gets, with the domestic country resampled rather than pinned to the US.

What's genuinely missing for you is NZ tax and NZ Super. So it worked, but you got the generic version.

On the existing calculators, they're good and I use them too. Most are tried and true against US history, which is the one sample where equities did unusually well. That's the gap I was after.

Your last paragraph is why I did using MC simulations based on credible data. Once you pick a return and a volatility, the output just restates your inputs and you can't tell a wrong answer from a right one. Historical data doesn't fix that, but it moves the assumption somewhere you can argue about, and shocks arrive as correlated bundles that actually happened.

Dying with roughly $0 is a real mode in the app: floor and ceiling, or Yale style smoothing, where spending flexes instead of staying fixed.

Sorry, that's the EU account gate rather than a geoblock. You can browse and run the Quick Check from anywhere except Quebec, but account creation is blocked in the EU/EEA/UK/CH, so the full builder is out of reach.

The reason is that GDPR has extraterritorial reach and real penalties, and doing it properly is weeks of work I haven't done for a market I'm not launching in yet. I'd rather block the signup than pretend I'm compliant. Not a satisfying answer if you're the one blocked, I know.

The 0.5% step is because the Quick Check is a 66 cell precomputed grid shipped to your browser, so it runs with no account and no server. The builder takes dollar amounts. On residence, there's an "other, rest of world" mode that runs an untaxed gross projection, so it isn't US only.

The 100% stocks result holds up. In the international panel, bonds get wrecked by inflation more often than equities do, so more stocks wins on "did the money last" while being much rougher along the way. Cederburg and co-authors find the same. That's why the full detailed results show the full distribution and the drawdowns, not one number.

Thanks, that's most of why I built it. A US only backtest is one draw where you already know who won. This is 25 countries over 125 years, block bootstrapped with the domestic country resampled, so something like Japan after 1990 shows up.

It's Bill 96 and Law 25. No French UI yet, so blocking beats being non compliant. It's near the top of the list.

The timing half is there: CPP/OAS or Social Security start ages, and pension start and end ages, so claiming at 62 versus deferring is something you can run both ways today.

Draw order across accounts isn't exposed yet. Right now the engine allocates by equalizing marginal tax rates across accounts each year rather than draining one at a time, so it's solving that ordering instead of letting you set it. The manual override is a fair ask and it's coming, the engine already takes the order as a parameter and it just isn't wired to the UI.

That's in the full planner, just not the Quick Check. Horizons are sampled per person from actuarial mortality tables, so you get a distribution of lifespans rather than one guessed end age. You can also pin a fixed age and run your 62 and your 98 separately, which given that spread is probably worth doing.

Fair, and it's the part I'm least settled on. The account exists because the full plan is a server side run that gets stored, not to build a mailing list.

Being straight about it: the long-run panel is the Dimson-Marsh-Staunton dataset, which is a paid commercial licence, plus the compute. So this won't be free forever. The Quick Check will stay free and anonymous.

The detailed side is where the real inputs are: mortality table life expectancy, CPP/OAS or Social Security start ages, pensions, tax, flexible spending. Four inputs can't tell you much, agreed.

That result is right. The Quick Check takes a withdrawal rate, not a dollar amount, and runs with taxes off, so it's scale invariant: $1M at 4% and $3M at 4% are the same simulation times three.

That's what lets it be instant and anonymous, since the whole answer space fits in a small grid I ship to your browser. It stops being true once taxes are on, which is what the full builder does. The page should say so. I'll add a line.

I got tired of retirement calculators that either assume one fixed return forever, or run Monte Carlo by pulling each year independently out of a bell curve. Real markets don't behave like that. Bad years cluster, and a crash in your first three years of retirement is a completely different problem from the same crash at 85.

So this one samples multi-year blocks out of actual history instead: 25 countries, 1900 to 2025, reassembled into thousands of possible futures. It's a stationary block bootstrap, which is the standard approach in the lifecycle-investing literature. When a plan fails it tells you which way it failed, whether that was weak growth, bad sequencing, or inflation at the wrong moment.

Canada and the US have full tax and benefit modelling (RRSP/TFSA and CPP/OAS on one side, 401(k)/IRA and Social Security on the other). Everywhere else you get a pre-tax projection. If you're in the EU or UK you can run the Quick Check, but you can't sign up yet, because I haven't finished the compliance work.

There's no account linking, and the Quick Check needs no signup at all. The methodology is written up at /methodology. It's an educational tool, not financial advice.

It's free right now. Paid plans come later, and there's a founding rate if you want to lock one in early: $50/year for as long as you stay subscribed, first 50 people. https://buy.stripe.com/14A7sN6Gycny54rdXv5Rm01 Nothing is gated behind it today.