names_are_hard

*Milquetoast

You can compute them for the average. In other words, the total customer impact is the number of business-hours of downtime across all customers divided by the total number of business hours of all customers.

This is important because it's quite possible that the downtime is biased toward the times they have the most active users.

Fair enough. I don't know how often I do it.

2 seasons per month? I started watching The Sopranos this week, I watched 1.5 seasons over the weekend.

This is either incredibly advanced, genius-level insight into the future of software engineering, or absolutely nonsensical gibberish. I'm not smart enough to tell which, I suppose we'll find out.

Can you explain the fraud disincentive bit? I feel like there's something obvious I'm missing, but why would a manager earning less than their reports make fraud more likely?

I find the language of "collaborating with Claude" off-putting. I don't collaborate with Claude, I use Claude. It's a tool in my hands, not a colleague or a friend.

I wish I worked in your organization. Every time I see the English dialect I call LLM-ese my brain shuts off.

I think that I might not have been clear enough. Of course Rosh mesivta and exilarch differ in the source, but I don't think a human translator would choose to translate one title and not the other. In circles where people use the word exilarch I am almost 100% positive no one would say Rosh mesivta, and the kind of folks who use Rosh mesivta in conversation would say Reish Galusa, not exilarch.

I can't imagine that metivta and mesivta are not both transliterations of the word מתיבתא.

You need to identify the target audience and stick to their language. Are you translating for a general lay audience? An academic audience? Contemporary religious Jews? If the latter, is it a yeshivish audience or a wider group? How much familiarity with Hebrew is expected from the reader?

I'm not a book editor or translator, just a guy with a reasonable familiarity with rabbinic literature in its original language. I spent some time reading the translation of Tzemach David, and I can say the following: it's legible to me but the AI is clearly lacking a style guide. It's inconsistent about what it chooses to translate and what it chooses to transliterate, and when it transliterates, it's inconsistent in how it does so. Eg "Rosh mesivta" vs "metivta" vs "exilarch". The AI is drawing on a hodge-podge of training materials with diverse audiences and no clear audience of its own.

Well the idea that the price of a stock represents the actual value of the company can be complicated but the realization that it's super hard to figure out what the actual value of a company really is, because figuring that out really requires a crystal ball, because you need to know exactly how much money the company will earn in the future, among other things.

None of us have that crystal ball, so market participants try to guess at the future. It's not difficult to believe that those guesses can swing a lot in a single day. Just trying to figure out whether or the Hormuz will be open next week can give you whiplash.

Is buying insurance gambling? Is giving your second cousin 100k some money so he can open up is restaurant gambling if you expect a percent of the profits but won't actively be involved in advising him on running the business?

I don't understand how this happened. Surely you picked up enough of the lecturer's views during the lectures and you knew what you had to say to get a good grade. So why didn't you do it?

The way I see it, the humanities classes are there to make sure you learn the non-technical aspects of life well enough to be a functioning member of the adult world. To succeed in life, one of the things you need to be able to do is read the room and decide what to say and what to skip. As a hiring manager, I want to hire people who get it and aren't always bumping heads or causing unnecessary friction.

So in that sense, success in these courses is a good signal for hiring managers.

P.S. You ultimately did succeed in getting that signal, because you got them to change your grade using resourcefulness and persistence. Which are also important soft skills I want as a hiring manager. So overall I would say the system is working just fine.

It's funny when quintessential American business models bump up against foreign regulations and they have to find workarounds to keep in line with the law while trying to stay true to character.

Not long ago I was in a Five Guys in France. There was a sign saying that by law free refills are not allowed, please scan the qr code to fill your cup. I guess there was a qr code on the receipt, I don't know, as far as I can tell there was no enforcement and people just kept filing up their drinks like true Americans. Let freedom ring, I guess.

Wow. I spent decades of my life living in the US but apparently the wrong parts. Now I'm living in a different continent but I hope one day I'll have the opportunity to experience this part of America.

Happy Independence Day!

>> Reproduction or distribution of any materials obtained on this website or linking to this website without written permission is prohibited.[0]

[0] https://berkshirehathaway.com/disclaimer.html

The article mentions tang repeatedly as if it's a positive thing. Maybe I don't know what tang is, but shouldn't pancakes be sweet and not tangy?

Claude is a tool in the hands of the person using it. If you built a cabinet using power tools would you say the drill and saw built the cabinet? Or that you did?

I find it irritating when people send me a code review and say that Claude wrote the code. No, you wrote the code, you are responsible for the code. You can't blame Claude if it's crap and you don't have to credit Claude if it's genius. Claude is not a person.

Robinhood (and retail in general) order flow is valuable precisely because there's already no information in it. It's assumed to be more or less random.

Institutional order flow can move the market, or be an indicator that the market is going to move in that direction. So executing against it a worse bet than executing against retail flow.

Yes. And indeed, when aggregated and averaged across all betters, nobody makes any money.

The question isn't what percentage of bets resolve to no, but whether there is a consistent bias in the prices away from the fair price, which has an expected value of 0, and what direction that bias is in.

Yes, Silicon Valley has some bits that don't quite match real life. But every now and then there's some true insight in it.

Like the bit where the crazy VC tells them that the last thing they need is revenue.

https://youtu.be/BzAdXyPYKQo?si=fU3Y3-ucHqgoBDLU

> If it were true, then decline wouldn't have begun in the 19th or 20th century but around the time that property and currencies emerged.

Why? Can you elaborate on that? Did the emergence of property and currency cause a negative correlation between intelligence and number of offspring?

The Arab parties are potential "kingmakers" in the coalition arithmetic. In particular, it was Mansour Abbas that made the "change government" (Lapid-Bennett) and if there's any chance of unseating Bibi again it'll come down to him. And to my knowledge he hasn't ruled out joining Bibi either, if there's a deal to be made.

A lot also depends on whether the Arab parties run together in the coming elections or not.

But it's still described as a $2M toll, not a 13.81M CNY toll. So I guess we're not there yet.

When a stock drops in value, the dollars don't flow anywhere, they just disappear. Think about this: For every buyer ("putting money in a stock") there is a seller ("taking money out of a stock') at exactly the same price. So dollars aren't "in" a stock at all - the shares exist and are said to have some dollar value based on the recent trading price or open orders in the market. When the price drops, it's because the collective consensus on how much those shares are worth changed, and the dollars assumed to have exist prior are just gone.

I live here, I don't need Polymarket to know that there will be missiles tomorrow. In fact, that's why I'm on HN now even though it's just past midnight here. Because it's a well known law of nature that just as I drift off to sleep my phone will violently alert me with this horrid bzzhhh-bzzhhh sound that missiles are incoming. Then I'll turn on the TV, any news channel, and see the "polygon of uncertainty" overlaid on a map of the country, updating in real time, and I'll decide how fast to put my shoes on. Polymarket odds ain't got nothing on that.

More seriously - I used to think this was a good argument. But the night before the war broke out, I checked Polymarket and the odds were under 20%. I also checked the news and listened to my gut, and I'm glad I made the call to fill up my car's tank and prepare my go-bag. Came in handy when we woke up to sirens and had to move fast to get closer to shelter.

Yes, it's anecdata, etc etc

It means holding the actual stocks in the underlying index, as opposed to synthetic replication, which aims to achieve returns matching the index via derivatives or other techniques.

It's physical in the sense that literal means not literal nowadays.

Or he's just a manchild who likes doing things that he thinks will make him look strong.

It really wasn't rocket science. Even I packed my go bag and loaded up the car on Friday night, and I have no information they don't share on the news. (I live in Israel, and when the first siren woke me at ~8 on Saturday morning I jumped in the car and evacuated to a family member who lives in a building with a bomb shelter)

I could've been wrong, but it was a reasonable guess. The local Israeli news anchors were in the newsroom broadcasting within minutes of the attack going public, I guess they slept in the office with their clothes on too.

I found the key insight -- when a human tries to sound like an LLM, that's perceived by other humans as humor.